The Hamptons 5, part 2: Examining Kevin Durant’s legacy thus far
Welcome to the “Hamptons 5” series, a five-part look at the Golden State Warriors’ legendary lineup. We will break each player, looking at where they rank in the league as well as on their own team, what they’ve accomplished as well as where they are headed. In Part 2, we look at Finals MVP Kevin Durant.
Kevin Durant spent last summer and the better part of the regular season being discussed as weak willed, traitorous and villainous. By the end of the 2017 Finals, he was being discussed as arguably the NBA’s best player.
Durant knew his move to the Golden State Warriors was a reputational investment. He’s already reaping the benefits of that venture. As the 2017-18 season approaches, he finds himself tied as the MVP favorite in Las Vegas. His team, of course, is expected to win another title.
Whether or not his stock continues to appreciate, Durant’s decision has paid off. As he enters his 11th NBA season and second with the Warriors, we examine what he’s accomplished, where he sits within the league and what might come next.
What Durant Has Accomplished
Career stats: 27.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 3.2 TOV, 48.8 FG%, 37.9 3P%, 88.2 FT, 8.0 FTA
Resume: 2007-08 Rookie of the Year, 2013-14 MVP, 2017 Finals MVP, four-time NBA scoring champion, eight-time All-Star, five-time All-NBA First Team, two-time All-NBA Second Team, one-time NBA champion
Highlights: NBA record-tying 17 points in fourth quarter of a Finals game, game-winning 3-pointer in NBA Finals game
Compared to what we saw from Klay Thompson in Part 1 of this series, Durant’s highlights section is relatively thin. That is a testament to the flammable nature of Thompson, but also to the sublime consistency of Durant.
He is the fourth-leading per-game scorer in NBA history, yet has fewer 50-point games than Stephen Curry, James Harden or Russell Westbrook (each of whom has been in the league for less time and ranks between 24th and 27th in all-time scoring average). At the same time, he once scored 20 points in 72 consecutive games, the fourth-longest streak of its kind.
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Durant’s relative lack of highs and extreme lack of lows come from the same route: He lets the game come to him. He doesn’t start forcing shots when he is in a groove, nor does he stop seeking them when he is cold.
For most players, even this sort of even-keeled approach would produce more uneven results. But Durant can get his smooth shot off at any time à la Dirk Nowitzki, and get to the rim and the line like the game’s elite guards. He is scheme- and switch-proof in a way no player has ever been, making every matchup a great one.
However, this tremendous shot selection seemed to often abandon Durant in the biggest moments of his Oklahoma City Thunder career. He has always had the physical tools to force the issue, but alas, that is not his game.
That changed in 2016-17. As loaded as his resume already was, nothing compares to his most recent addition. Durant averaged 35.2 points, 8.2 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game with a 55.6 field goal percentage, 47.4 3-point percentage and 92.7 free throw percentage during the 2017 Finals, unanimously capturing MVP honors.
In doing so, he also added the iconic shot that his highlight reel was missing.
Where Durant ranks on the Warriors
Durant did not fill his title and big-shot voids by changing who he is. He still zeroes in on the basket when under pressure and takes sub-optimal shots.
It’s just that, when playing next to Curry instead of Westbrook, he makes more of them.
The difference between Golden State and OKC is more than that, of course. There’s Thompson drawing attention, Draymond Green making expert reads and an ingenious system that creates optimal shots for everyone. There’s also Durant, who regardless of his favorable circumstances, is the one who made big shot after big shot.
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Still, Stephen Curry is at the center of the Warriors’ success. The offense is built around his earth-shattering game, and that offense won 140 games and nearly two titles without Durant. Even last season, the team scored at a 120.2 points per 100 possessions pace with Curry in and Durant out.
That number dropped to 109.6 When Curry sat and Durant played. For all the deserved praise Steve Kerr has received, his offense has never been special with Curry off the floor — even with an all-time great player like Durant in his place.
Durant is a better defensive player. He’s a more undeniable scorer due to his size and athleticism. In the postseason, his style becomes more effective, while Curry’s becomes less so.
Even then, Curry’s presence on the court is the No. 1 factor in determining the Warriors’ success.
During the 2016-17 playoffs, the Warriors were +15.9 per 100 possessions with Durant on the court, and +9.0 with him sitting. With Curry on, they were +19.6, and -3.3 with him off. The most dominant playoff team in NBA history was outscored when Curry sat.
Durant takes the foundation of dominance that Curry provides, and makes it completely impossible for opponents to account for. But Curry is still the foundation, leaving Durant as arguably the greatest No. 2 guy of all-time.
Where Durant ranks in the NBA
Curry’s status as the Warriors’ most-crucial piece does not automatically make him a better player than Durant. Greatness is defined in part by elevating a specific team to all-time levels, but also by the ability to elevate any team to elite levels. It is conceivable that Durant—an elite two-way player and arguably the most gifted scorer of all-time—would make a greater impact on more teams than Curry.
However, it is not true. Curry’s game-changing nature on the court and culture-building unselfishness and leadership both on and off it would transform any team into an elite franchise. Durant has the talent to carry any team to 55-60 wins and a deep playoff run, but not the overall impact to change a culture in the way Curry has and can.
Most other players crumble when compared to Durant. He is far greater than Russell Westbrook, as the on/off numbers suggested throughout their eight years together. James Harden is comparable as an offensive player, but not a defensive one. Chris Paul does not have the same impact as a scorer, and every other guard and big is outside the league’s top tier.
This leaves two players for Durant to compete with: LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard.
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The talk that Durant has overtaken James is overblown. He is the superior scorer, and always has been. He played more inspired defense than James in the Finals, and came up bigger in clutch moments.
However, the workload that James had to carry made this an unfair fight, particularly in those energy-based areas of the game. That James still posted historical numbers to rival those of Durant — 33.4 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists per game with a 56.4 field goal percentage and a 38.7 3-point percentage — and ended the series as a mere -7 was enough to retain his status as the league’s best player.
Equally reactionary is the notion that Kawhi Leonard has surpassed Durant. Leonard is a tremendous force. He is as impactful a defender as there is in the sport, and has become one of the best isolation scorers in the world. But he does not yet make his teammates dramatically better offensively, something that is required before entering the James/Curry/Durant tier.
If Durant had not grown defensively in the way that he has over the past one and a half seasons, Leonard would have a case. But the guy who averaged 35.6 points with 69.8 percent true shooting in the Finals and also enveloped everyone from Kyrie Irving to Kevin Love while protecting the rim in a way few wings ever have is a better player than Leonard. He just is.
Predicting Durant’s 2017-18 Numbers
Scoring in an NBA game has never been easier than it was for Durant last year. That is not hyperbolic, it’s what happens when you put a guy who can get to the rim as fast as he can knock down a 3 in a system that forces late rotations and exploitable switches.
The numbers largely reflect this; he shot a career-high 53.7 percent from the field last year. However, his 3-point percentage (37.5) was his worst in six years, and his scoring average (25.1) was the second-lowest of his career.
Following a broken jumper or a great closeout, uncertainty is the most common cause for a missed shot. Durant, Curry and Thompson all seemed more hesitant to shoot in 2016-17 than in years past, but a year of familiarity should take this second-guessing right out of each players’ game in 2017-18. And since broken jumpers and tight closeouts are a rarity within Golden State’s offense, there’s no reason that the trio’s shooting numbers shouldn’t jump.
Durant’s scoring will increase as a result of him taking and making more triples, though a return to his career average of 27.2 is unlikely with so much firepower around him.
His assist numbers are likely to go up. Durant is an extremely cerebral and unselfish player, and should start making the next-level reads—finding guys on backcuts, anticipating an overloading defense—that other high-I.Q. Warriors forwards such as Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala are accustomed to.
Something similar should happen on defense. Durant may not top his 1.6 blocks from a year ago, but should better his 1.1 steals as he feels more emboldened to take risks.
Projections: 25.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.5 BPG 1.3 SPG, 2.2 TOV, 55.4 FG%, 40.8 3P%, 87.5 FT%, 6.0 FTA
Where Durant is headed
If Durant retired tomorrow, he’d go down as one of the 25 greatest players ever. He has had that dominant of a 10-year run.
Let’s assume Durant never adds another major accolade to his resume. No more championships, MVPs or scoring titles. A few more All-Star teams, that’s it. He retires at 35. Where would his 17-year career rank?
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ESPN’s “NBA Rank” from January of 2016 placed Karl Malone, Dirk Nowitzki and Charles Barkley in the 16-18 slots. Even this declining version of Durant would rank just ahead of all three. He would be an MVP short of Malone, but a Finals MVP and a title ahead of him. He’d have a greater resume than Barkley, and a similar one to Nowitzki—with both a stronger prime and better across-the-board numbers.
Now, what if he did continue to add to his trophy case? Durant winning another title and doubling his MVP collection is just as likely as him not winning any of those things. Mix in several more All-Star and All-NBA appearances, and Durant would soar past Moses Malone, Jerry West and Julius Erving, jumping into the Hakeem Olajuwon–Oscar Robertson tier.
But what if Durant wins two more rings? Or three? The most dominant postseason team in NBA history has a lot of declining to before falling below favorite status. Even once they do, their experience could carry them through in a way reminiscent of the 2013-14 Spurs.
That team’s leader, Tim Duncan, has five titles and one MVP. Kobe Bryant has the same, and Shaquille O’Neal has four (plus an MVP). A blinged-out Durant belongs in that group, and would have a legitimate case at surpassing all of them with a magnificent late career. Given his height and stroke, he could be an All-Star into his late 30s.
However, his partnership with Curry will will keep him below these three. Duncan won five rings as the unequivocal best player on his team. Bryant won two. O’Neal never won without a co-legend, but was also the best player in the league for at least half a decade after Jordan. Durant has never had such sovereignty.
Next: Golden State Warriors - Complete 2017 offseason grades
This group will be as difficult for Durant to penetrate as the Karl Malone/Nowitzki/Barkley group will be easy to surpass. He is likely to land as one of the 11-15 best players of all-time — not a tragic box to fall into.