The Hamptons 5, part 1: Klay Thompson
Welcome to the “Hamptons 5” series, a five-part look at the Golden State Warriors’ legendary lineup. We will break each player, looking at where they rank in the league as well as on their own team, what they’ve accomplished as well as where they are headed. We start with Klay Thompson.
We do not hear about the “Splash Brothers” as much as we used to when discussing the Golden State Warriors. Kevin Durant has replaced Klay Thompson as Stephen Curry‘s co-star, reducing Thompson to a more complementary role and a smaller spotlight.
For his part, Thompson’s poor shooting during the 2016-17 playoffs did not help.
Yet Thompson won his second title in three years, and those who examine the game deeply know of his impact as a gravitational force and defensive stopper.
As we move into the seventh year of Thompson’s career, we examine his accomplishments, determine his status and project his future.
What Thompson has accomplished
Career stats: 19.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.7 turnovers, 45.3 FG percentage, 41.9 3PT percentage, 85.3 FT percentage, 2.9 3PM
Resume: 3x All-Star, 2x All-NBA Third Team, 2x NBA Champion
Highlights: NBA-record 37-point quarter, NBA-record 60 points in 29 minutes, NBA playoff-record 11 three-pointers in Game 6 of 2016 Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City, 2016 3-point contest champion
Looking at Thompson’s advanced shooting numbers, one would think he is the best catch-and-shoot guy in the league. He certainly is, with the most textbook, smooth, repeatable long-range jumper the sport has ever seen.
Looking at his legendary list of single-game records, one might believe him to be the NBA’s pre-eminent heat-checker. Again, this is not wrong.
What gets lost in combining these two accolades is this: Jamal Crawford with J.J. Redick‘s jumper would still never reach Thompson’s heights.
Thompson did not make 11 threes in one of the most important games in recent NBA history simply because the basket got bigger and the game slowed down. He did so because he has an all-time ability to replicate his form and get his shot off from any distance, angle or standing position.
Similarly, he did not score 60 points on 11 dribbles in in 29 minutes and only 90 seconds of possession time simply because he kept knocking down catch-and-shoot threes. He did so because he is a relentless and ingenious cutter, can score from every level and has an unprecedented mixture of size and release speed.
By adding smothering defense to his offensive game, Thompson has yet another element that separates him from other microwave scorers and shooting specialists.
After a slight regression in 2015-16, Thompson played the best defense of his career last season, and particularly last postseason. He held opponents to 39.4 percent shooting as the primary defender throughout the playoffs, and 37.1 percent if you take away the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Game 4 explosion that doubled as the Warriors’ only playoff loss.
Thompson’s numbers may not jump off the page, but his myriad records, two titles and growing list of all-star appearances best the accomplishments of most retired players, and certainly most 27-year-olds.
Where Thompson ranks on the Warriors
The delineation between the Curry-Durant duo and Thompson is well deserved. There are the occasional hot-take proclamations that he is a superior two-way player to Curry, but this is based on weakest-link logic. Following such thinking, Marcus Smart is a superior two-way player to Isaiah Thomas, and Trevor Ariza a better two-way player than James Harden.
Thompson is either the Warriors third-
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or fourth-best player, with Draymond Green as his only competition. Green has achieved greater star status due to the uniqueness of his role; he is the team’s best defender, emotional leader and the unselfish, playmaking big that unlocks the very lineup on which this series is based.
Thompson only does two things: He shoots and he defends. He does the former worse than Curry and the latter worse than Green, thus relegating him to a complementary status that is tough to break.
In concert, his offensive and defensive value adds up to quite a bit. More, in fact, than it does for Green, at least outside of a Warriors-specific context.
Defense is simply not worth as much as offense from an individual player. Offenses have two inherent advantages—the power to give the ball to its best players and to target the defense’s worst players—that make this so. Green’s ability to guard every position, protect the rim and help all over the court nearly breaks this rule, but not when compared to other elite defenders who are also offensive stars.
Playing alongside two of the game’s all-time great scorers changes this equation. While Thompson’s tremendous spacing and point guard defense works wonders for Curry, the Warriors would sacrifice less with a knockoff Thompson—say, Avery Bradley—than they would with a knockoff Green—say, Jae Crowder.
Therefore, while Thompson is technically a better basketball player than Green, he is No. 4 in Golden State’s hierarchy.
Where Thompson ranks in the NBA
The toughest thing to do as an NBA player is to achieve playoff success as the offensive focal point while holding up defensively. This makes Curry, Durant, Harden, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul the league’s best players.
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Every other player in the league falls short in some way. John Wall cannot consistently create for himself in the halfcourt. Anthony Davis struggles to do so for others. Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving and Damian Lillard are not offensively transcendent enough to make up for their defensive ineptitude. Green is joined by Rudy Gobert as a defensive monster who is simply too limited offensively to crack the most elite ranks.
Thompson struggles as both an isolation scorer and a playmaker. This seemingly puts him a notch below fellow elite defensive wings Paul George and Jimmy Butler, both of whom are better with the ball in their hands.
However, the player-ranking criteria changes once you move below the top tier. If a player is not capable* of leading his team deep into the playoffs as the fulcrum, his complementary skills become more valuable than his creation ability. Last year’s Pacers and Bulls would have missed the playoffs with Thompson in place of George and Butler, but this year’s Thunder and Timberwolves would climb the ranks with Thompson instead of their respective new additions.
Thompson’s low-usage, high-efficiency game has allowed his MVP backcourt mate to grow into the player he is today. Curry’s transformation would have likely never happened next to George or Butler, both of whom dominate the ball and neither of whom provide the spacing Thompson does.
Had Thompson not landed next to a game-altering force, he’d likely be regarded as a clear step below George and Butler. But Thompson has made his own luck. In a results-based league, he ranks ahead of both.
How does this translate when comparing across positions? Davis, a phenomenal complementary player in his own right, certainly ranks higher. So do Wall and Kyle Lowry, excellent defenders and orchestrators of two top-10 offenses last season. Neither is good enough to carry a title contender, but both are better fits next to other superstars than Butler and George due to their tremendous playmaking.
Thompson comes in above the rest. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns may surpass him this year, but neither is there yet. Green and Gobert dominate the less-individualistic end of the court. Lillard and Thomas could play for titles in a similar way Irving has (next to LeBron James), but Thompson would still complement the king much better.
Given that, I have Thompson as the league’s 11th-best player.
Projecting Thompson’s 2017-18 numbers
Thompson has increased his scoring average every season he’s been in the league. This was never shocking until last year, when the arrival of Durant was expected to reduce Thompson’s offensive load. While his role was diminished (he was no longer relied upon to take and make as many difficult shots), his volume was not. He was left open more than ever before, and when he was, his unselfish teammates generally found him.
Golden State Warriors
This changed in the playoffs. Thompson set personal postseason lows in both scoring (15.0 points) and attempts (13.9 FGA), while Durant and Curry upped their aggression. Thompson’s poor shooting (39.7 percent from the field) played a role, but so too did a change in team emphasis. The culture-building equality of the regular season was largely replaced by an urgent approach from Curry and Durant, two all-time greats playing with all-time chips on their shoulders.
As we enter another regular season, Thompson’s role should return to normal levels. New career highs in scoring and shot attempts are unlikely with Durant becoming more comfortable and assertive, but Thompson will stick to his mantra.
While he has steadily improved his all-around game, his stats have never reflected that growth. Thompson has averaged between 2.0 and 2.2 assists every year, with 2014-15 as the lone exception (2.9). His rebounding has been in the 3.1 to 3.8 range since his second year in the league, his steals between 0.8 and 1.1 and his blocks between 0.5 and 0.8.
For all of his game-to-game fluctuation, his shooting consistency has been remarkable across seasons. His field-goal percentage has fallen between 46.3 and 47.0 over the last three years. He shot less than 41.4 percent from deep only in 2012-13 (40.1 percent), and below 84.1 percent from the line only in 2013-14 (79.5 percent).
Given his consistency, Thompson’s 2017-18 counting numbers are relatively easy to project. It’s possible he becomes more comfortable with his open looks and sets a career-high in percentages, but also possible that his poor playoff shooting lingers in his mind early on (we saw this with Curry last season).
Projections: 22.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.5 turnovers, 47.3 FG percentage, 42.8 3PT percentage, 86.1 FT percentage, 3.3 3PM
Where Thompson is headed
Basketball Reference generates a Hall of Fame probability figure for every player that has appeared in at least 400 NBA games. Ninety nine times out of 100, it is fairly accurate.
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Thompson is that exception. Due to his lack of traditional statistical output and all-star appearances (three), his HOF probability is listed at 5.0 percent. For reference, Isaiah Thomas is at 7.1 percent, LaMarcus Aldridge at 11.8, Rajon Rondo at 38.8 and Joe Johnson at 50.6.
None of these figures are wrong, but Thompson is a more likely Hall of Famer than all of them. As a floor spacer, efficient scorer and low steal/block defender, Thompson’s skills do not translate to normal Hall of Fame criteria.
Without his rings, these shortcomings would keep him out of Springfield. The other player that the model severely underrates is surefire-Hall-of-Famer Manu Ginobili (20.1 percent). It’s easy to look at this and say that the model underrates championships, but this is overly simplistic. For example, Derek Fisher (8.3 points, 39.9 percent shooting for his career) should not be given more than the 1.9 percent chance he has, courtesy of five rings.
What the model truly underrates is the impact an all-time great complementary guy can have on winning. It underrates the value of efficiency, of sport-altering players and of moments. Ginobili won four titles, brought the Euro step to prominence, epitomized unselfishness and has influenced a generation.
Next: Can Curry, Durant become best duo ever?
Thompson’s current resume—two rings, several legendary performances and a never-before-seen-but-already-mimicked approach to shooting—is strong. With a couple more all-star appearances and another title (both conservative projections), he will be a lock.