Toronto Raptors: How Jonas Valanciunas fits into the culture change

The Toronto Raptors seem committed to changing their style of play on offense. In this new series of articles, I’ll look at how each projected starter can fit into that “culture change.” Let’s start with center Jonas Valanciunas.

Last weekend, I examined what will and, perhaps more importantly, what won’t work in altering the Toronto Raptors’ offense.

For the past few years, Dwane Casey and his players have run an overly simplistic attack dependent upon pick-and-rolls and isolations. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are excellent one-on-one players, to be sure, which is why Toronto actually finished sixth in offensive efficiency last season.

But some variety is necessary, especially given some recent critiques regarding team culture. If a “culture change” is going to happen, Toronto needs a new playbook that incorporates more movement, both of the ball and the players. That may start with DeRozan and Lowry, but everyone’s role has to shift slightly.

As the team’s projected starting center and an intermittent offensive force, Jonas Valanciunas will play a major part in these changes.

For multiple years now, Valanciunas has been used frequently in the mid pick-and-roll – Toronto’s bread-and-butter – where his hands, positional intelligence and brute strength make him a threat. Last season, the big Lithuanian finished in the league’s 93rd percentile as a roll man with 1.28 points per possession.

He doesn’t have the verticality to catch lobs, but Valanciunas is a powerful finisher around the rim. At 255 pounds, his screens swat away smaller players like flies. He finished 12th in the league in screen assists last season.

That said, the Raptors are trying to move away from the pick-and-roll, and, in terms of ball movement, it’s easy to see why. Rolling to the hoop, Valanciunas simply doesn’t pass, even when confronted by help defenders flooding from the weakside.

Team president Masai Ujiri has actually confirmed that he sees Valanciunas in a different role. “He’s working more on his shooting range,” Ujiri said. “He’s working more on playing in the dunking role.”

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The dunking role? Sure, but he already does a ton of that. Maybe Serge Ibaka will become the primary screen setter, but it’s difficult to see why, considering Ibaka is more comfortable spacing the floor than attacking the rim. And if Toronto is just trading Valanciunas pick-and-rolls for Ibaka pick-and-pops, not much will change.

Hopefully, Ujiri is referring to a different type of dunking role. The Raptors may use Valanciunas as an off-ball screener at the elbow, where he can put opposing guards on his back, either freeing DeRozan and Lowry or getting an open cut to the basket himself.

In truth, however, Valanciunas will need some major individual development to become an integral part of this culture change. His tunnel vision is a massive liability because it limits Toronto’s ability to use him in more creative ways.

When paired with Ibaka, who has equally poor passing chops, the Raptors just don’t have enough playmaking on the floor to take the ball out of DeRozan and Lowry’s hands. With his driving ability and midrange shooting touch, Valanciunas has potential as a mid-post hub; it just comes in inconsistent spurts. This is what Toronto’s offense looks like when he passes the ball:

Assuming that vision never fully materializes, Valanciunas may be most useful to a culture change when he’s on the bench. If Ibaka plays more minutes at center, the Raptors can exploit the space and speed advantage created by stretchy 5-out lineups.

Valanciunas can then come in against backup centers who are mostly slow, small, young or all three. He’s not a post-up machine by any means, but can tear apart backups and carry a talent-starved, Cory Joseph-less second unit.

A good test case was Game 2 against the Cavaliers in this past year’s playoffs. Valanciunas entered the game off the bench and erupted for 23 points on 10-of-13 shooting. Channing Frye and the Cavs had no answer for him down low, and that’s about the caliber of defender Valanciunas would face on a regular basis.

Since the Raptors’ rotation is already thin, Casey likely won’t bring Valanciunas off the bench. That doesn’t mean he shouldn’t. Offensive-minded bigs like Enes Kanter, Zach Randolph and Greg Monroe have thrived in that kind of role.

But if Valanciunas starts, his pick-and-roll chemistry with the two guards almost guarantees a slighter-than-expected culture shift. He and Ibaka are made for conventional four-out, one-in basketball, and that’s a reality Casey will have a difficult time navigating.

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Casey and Ujiri have been talking a big game, but when it comes to specifics, their changes seem more like a PR campaign for fans than a worrisome shake-up for their opponents. All we can do is wait and see.