Will the Boston Celtics finish first in the East again? According to ESPN’s RPM projections, that seems to be the case.
The Boston Celtics finished first in the Eastern Conference last season, but failed to reach the NBA Finals.
Similar to how the Golden State Warriors’ dominance has forced the Western Conference into an arms race, so too has LeBron James‘ dominance affected the decision-making of Eastern Conference organizations.
LeBron has reached the NBA Finals in seven consecutive seasons, decimating any team that tried to become the new king of the hill. In the NBA, teams need to match star talent with star talent, and that’s exactly what Danny Ainge and the Celtics have accomplished this offseason.
The acquisition of star wing Gordon Hayward was one of the biggest splashes in free agency. It brought much-needed talent to an Eastern Conference that lost Jimmy Butler, Paul George and Paul Millsap to the West.
ESPN predicts the Boston Celtics will claim the No. 1 seed.
According to ESPN’s projections using real plus-minus (RPM), the Celtics will claim the No. 1 seed in the East for a second consecutive season. Here’s ESPN’s Kevin Pelton’s explanation for the Celtics’ projected 49.4 wins.
"After they won 53 games to claim the top seed in the East last season, why aren’t the Celtics projected to improve with the addition of Hayward? First, they outperformed their plus-2.6 point differential, which is more typical of a 48-win team. Boston also benefited from opponents shooting 33.2 percent from 3-point range, the league’s second-lowest mark. Both categories tend to regress heavily to the mean, so the Celtics would have been in for a steeper decline had they not added Hayward. Still, given that Boston didn’t have that same good fortune in the playoffs, the Celtics should be improved when it really counts."
As Kevin Pelton pointed out, Boston’s opponents shot a mere 33.2 percent from three-point range, the second-lowest mark in the league. Pelton also notes that the Celtics outscored their opponents by only 2.6 points — a low mark compared to other high-performing teams.
The weak East
Isaiah Thomas lifted the Celtics in the fourth quarter to a lot of close wins. Next season, some of those games are unlikely to swing Boston’s way again, which is understandable. But the Eastern Conference is so bad that it all but cancels those numbers out.
ESPN predicts the Detroit Pistons will win 35 games next season, and qualify for the postseason as the eighth seed. Also, the Cavaliers will finish second in the East with 49.2 wins, according to the projection. With no Eastern Conference teams predicted to win 50 games, the Celtics can match their 53 wins from last season.
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We all know that Isaiah Thomas is a defensive liability. The Celtics allowed 108.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the court last season. When he sat, Boston’s defense only allowed 101.1 points per 100 possessions.
But Thomas’ contributions shined on the offensive side. The Celtics scored 113.6 points per 100 possessions while Thomas played, a 5.2-point increase over Boston’s season average. Even with Brad Stevens’ offensive system that encourages ball movement, Boston’s offense tended to stagnate when Thomas took a breather.
With Gordon Hayward in tow, Boston can feature Hayward in the offense when Thomas receives his customary rest. Hayward averaged 21.9 points per game on 39.8 percent shooting from three-point range, he is a legitimate offensive weapon.
Next: The biggest winners and losers of 2017 NBA free agency
Yes, Boston lost Avery Bradley, but Hayward should turn into a perennial All-Star in the Eastern Conference. Gordon Hayward is arguably the most underrated wing in the league, but that could change next season.