Toronto Raptors: Is DeMar DeRozan’s NBA 2K18 rating fair?

DeMar DeRozan of the Toronto Raptors recently learned his NBA 2K18 rating. Is it too low, too high, or just right? Here are three completely unscientific ways to tell.

Forget All-Star appearances, stats, even rings. What NBA stars care about most – and who could blame them? – is their NBA 2K rating. The difference between a losing in the first round of the playoffs and losing in the NBA Finals is negligible really; the difference between a 90 and an 89 in 2K is life or death.

Recently, a handful of players were (un)lucky enough to learn their ratings for the newest iteration of the game, NBA 2K18. The whole guess-and-find-out exercise was reasonably entertaining, but next time, 2K developers should probably avoid dropping these videos just before Kyrie Irving shatters the NBA universe.

Speaking of Irving, remember how he similarly shattered the Toronto Raptors‘ dreams last playoffs? Well, he beat Toronto again, receiving a 90 rating compared to DeMar DeRozan’s 89.

Right now, the most pressing question for Raptors fans is whether DeRozan’s rating is fair compared to those of his peers. If not, fans will riot.

Compared to Other 2K18 Ratings

Here are the full ratings from the 2K18 commercial shoot:

• Paul George: 91
• Karl-Anthony Towns: 90
• Kyrie Irving: 90
• Joel Embiid: 86
• Devin Booker: 86

It’s difficult to compare big men and perimeter players so we’ll ignore the two centers for now. Let’s look at Devin Booker first. DeRozan is effectively a non-shooter from three, and he compromises a team’s spacing, whereas Booker is known as a deadeye who can play on or off-ball.

But even accounting for shooting – and Booker’s shot is still largely theoretical (career 35.4 percent from three) – DeRozan is a more proven offensive player. And defensively, Booker and his short arms reach a level of ineptitude DeRozan, although a negative, does not. At this point in their respective careers, DeRozan is three or four points better. Fair.

Irving is also inferior to DeRozan defensively, but there’s no competition on offense. The two play a similar iso-heavy brand of basketball, except Irving adds far more value away from the ball. Come the playoffs, we’ve seen teams successfully gameplan against DeRozan, whereas Irving is almost unguardable. But if we’re counting the regular season, when Irving can be inconsistent, one point seems okay enough. Fair.

And then there’s Paul George, who is more versatile offensively, shoots at an extremely high level, and is one of the best defenders in the league. George isn’t dominant – he doesn’t get to the line often enough and shoots a few too many midrange jumpers – but he definitely earns those two points. Fair.

Compared to DeRozan’s Past 2K Ratings

DeRozan has improved nearly every year of his career, and he did so again last season, making his first All-NBA team. In 2K17, DeRozan’s rating was an 87, so the question here is whether that two-point improvement is warranted.

In 2015-16, DeRozan scored 23.5 points per game with a 55.0 true shooting percentage. This year, he maintained that same efficiency over larger volume – always a good sign – averaging 27.3 points on 55.2 percent true shooting. That improvement could certainly be worth one point, but it’s difficult to justify giving him two points just for added usage.

DeRozan’s assist and turnover percentages remained stagnant, and his three-point shooting dropped from 33.8 percent to 26.6 percent. Basically, DeRozan improved in areas in which he already thrived: isolation and pick-and-roll scoring. Without adding new elements to his game, two points may be generous. I’m not going to haggle over a point though. Fair-ish.

Compared to past 89-rated players

I think is probably the most accurate way to see if a 2K rating is fair. It’s difficult to gauge the exact value of a one-point or two-point difference, so let’s just scrap point differences altogether and compare players with the same ratings. Only three players received 89 ratings in NBA 2K17: Irving, George and Damian Lillard.

DeRozan certainly matches Irving circa 2016. Although Irving hit the shot, he suffered through a poor 2015-16 regular season in which he took 16.6 shots per game in order to reach only 19.6 points. Cleveland actually fared slightly better (0.2 points per 100 possessions) without Irving on the floor that year. Playoff heroics matter, though, so we’ll call Irving’s 89 fair.

George, meanwhile, earned a third-team All-NBA nod in 2015-16, just like DeRozan did this past season. But George also received second-team All-Defensive honors and played a dominant playoff series against DeRozan’s Raptors. Considering the Oklahoma City man is a noticeably better player than DeRozan and didn’t improve much over the last year, I’d say this rating flatters DeRozan a bit. More than fair.

Now we get to Lillard, an offensive dynamo who has far more playmaking talent than DeRozan does. Lillard shot just 41.9 percent from the field in 2015-16, but he managed 25.1 points per game anyway because of his long distance sharpshooting. He’s an Irving-esque defender, sure, but most advanced stats and playoff numbers point to 2015-16 Lillard as a tier above 2016-17 DeRozan. More than fair.  

If we consider this last method of comparison the most accurate, DeRozan may have gotten lucky with his rating. Raptors fans can hold off rioting for now; there’s no conspiracy against the NBA’s only Canadian team. DeMar DeRozan just made his first All-NBA team and got some props from 2K developers.

Next: The biggest winners and losers of 2017 NBA free agency

In fact, Toronto fans may want to pick the Raptors when they play. Just take DeRozan to 16 feet, crossover with the right stick and pull up. Since it’s 2K, he’ll probably score every time.