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How Marvin Bagley III could change the 2018 NBA Draft with one move

By Max Holm

LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 30: Marvin Bagley, Jr., the top high school recruit in the class of 2018, looks on during a Drew League game at King Drew Magnet High School on July 30th, 2017. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 30: Marvin Bagley, Jr., the top high school recruit in the class of 2018, looks on during a Drew League game at King Drew Magnet High School on July 30th, 2017. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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A decision by Marvin Bagley III regarding where and at what level he’ll play basketball this year will have a massive impact on the 2018 NBA Draft.

With NBA Summer League in the rearview mirror, talk surrounding NBA prospects this time of year shifts. From the class getting ready to embark on their NBA journeys in October, our attention pivots to the freshmen and returning players in college basketball.

With a trio of enticing seven-footers in Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Ayton and Mohamed Bamba, the race for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft looks competitive. Throw in Real Madrid’s prodigy, Luka Doncic, and it could be one of the best races in years.

We’ll slowly get around to learning about these guys over the next few months, but they may have more competition than we originally thought.

If you haven’t heard of Marvin Bagley III, don’t sweat it. Bagley is a rising high school senior, considered the consensus No. 1 player in the 2018 class. Normally a player that far away from college doesn’t enter the mainstream basketball conversation so soon. But these aren’t normal times.

What makes Bagley so relevant now is he may reclassify to the class of 2017. Should he succeed, he would have the opportunity to play college basketball this year. Succeeding would put him up there with Doncic, Porter, Bamba and Ayton, creating a potential dynamite top-five for the 2018 NBA Draft. The school that got him would also likely be one of the favorites to cut down the nets.

Now, while he’s a special and rare talent that could be added to this mix, there’s no guarantee he pulls this off.

Far from a sure thing

Players reclassify all the time. In fact, the top player in the 2019 high school class, Steve Nash‘s godson R.J. Barrett, is considering doing just that. However, rarely have players attempted to do so this late in the year. Bagley is physically ready to play college ball. Frankly, he’s probably ready to be an NBA rookie. The reality is, while he filed paperwork to reclassify, he still needs NCAA clearance.

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But even then, that’s not the only hoop he needs to jump through. Step one is getting clearance to play college ball. He’s already visited two of his top choices: Duke and USC. Throw in Arizona and UCLA as dark horses, and that’s the picture for where he’d like to play. Any of those four teams would become a Final Four favorite. However, that’s not the sole obstacle on Bagley’s mind.

This is all contingent on being able to be a one-and-done prospect. Bagley’s goal is to be able to make an earlier jump to the NBA, if that appears to be the right move for his career.

That’s why this is dicey. It’s far beyond getting clearance from the NCAA, which you can ask Emmanuel Mudiay about dealing with. This includes knowing he can leave college after one year for the NBA Draft. We’ve never had this much drama and so many details needing ironing out with a prospect this talented. Should Bagley get the green light on both fronts, what would it mean?

What he brings to the table

Should he successfully reclassify, we’ll have more in-depth looks at Bagley going forward. In the meantime, here are some SparkNotes.

An Arizona kid now playing for Sierra Canyon High School in Los Angeles and Nike Phamily on the AAU circuit, Bagley has a long track record of dominating everywhere he goes. In fact, he’s already played with Chris Paul and James Harden at Los Angeles’ infamous Drew League.

https://twitter.com/DefPenSports/status/891857696986628096

A lefty with absurd athleticism for a player that stands at 6-foot-10, Bagley is so much more than physical tools. With an improving jumper that can extend to high school three-point range, for now, he also has the ability to handle the ball and push it himself.

Right now, Bagley is a force around both baskets. The key for him to potentially push toward No. 1 in the 2018 NBA Draft is improving his passing and defensive ability. How many teenagers can do something like this?

https://twitter.com/PhxPhamily/status/891325023687856128

Given he’s already 18, reclassifying makes a lot of sense and would help his NBA stock. There’s a lot that needs happening still, but the potential both in the player and the year he could have are immense.

The NBA is falling in love and looking everywhere for “unicorn” big men. Bagley has that exact potential. Getting clearance would change both the college game and next year’s NBA Draft for the better.

Next: The biggest winners and losers of 2017 NBA free agency

And the biggest team to gain from this? The Boston Celtics. If Bagley is draft-eligible, their potential to have two top-five picks could land them one of the biggest draft coups in decades.