Golden State Warriors challengers, part 5: The Boston Celtics, assets, and the Isaiah Thomas conundrum
Welcome back to the Golden State Warriors challengers series. Over a two-week span, I will make the case for six teams that can prevent the Dubs from staking claim to a dynasty. In Part 5, we take a look at the Boston Celtics, and what Danny Ainge can do to better equip his roster for a potential Finals showdown.
You are a Boston Celtics fan, and you’re dreaming.
Game 1 of the 2018 NBA Finals is about to tip off. Your team is coming off an emotional Game 6 victory over Kyrie Irving and Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, while the Golden State Warriors are at home and well rested.
But man, look at those matchups. Al Horford is guarding Draymond Green. Jae Crowder is on Kevin Durant. Marcus Smart is hounding Stephen Curry, and Gordon Hayward is handling Klay Thompson. Aron Baynes is kind of pretending to notice Zaza Pachulia.
You realize something is wrong. Where is Isaiah Thomas? You wake up.
There is a lot to like about the 2017-18 Celtics roster. They are ridiculously deep at forward, with Hayward, Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Jayson Tatum and Semi Ojeleye all competing for minutes. They are still small, but now they’re big small. Hayward will play a lot of 2, helping to make up for their lack of rebounding at the 4. Baynes also helps in that regard, while adding a much-needed nastiness to the frontcourt.
And yes, Thomas is spectacular. That NBA Finals starting lineup did sound nice, though.
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Let’s say you didn’t wake up, but you became lucid. How do you choose to explain Thomas’ absence? Do you look towards the bench and see him sitting between Brown and Morris, rubbing his hands together? Do you remember that he was traded back to the Phoenix Suns in February for what turned out to be the No. 5 pick in the draft? Or do you do a double-take and realize that it is Thomas, not Smart, out there next to Curry?
It is not an easy choice. The idea of trading such a miraculous scorer is off-putting. So is the thought of him guarding Curry — or anyone in Golden State’s starting lineup — throughout a playoff series.
Sixth man Thomas might be an ideal in-between, but it will never happen. As long as he keeps dazzling TD Garden with his fourth-quarter heroics, he’ll be a starter. As long as he starts, Boston will be all but hopeless against the Warriors.
The Avery Bradley trade makes this more true than before. There may not be a player in the league more adept at defending Curry. With a backcourt rotation of Bradley, Smart and Thomas, the Celtics have generally approximated enough defense to limit Golden State.
Trading Bradley was the right move for the franchise, without a doubt. Someone had to go to create cap space for Hayward, and the only other realistic options were Smart and Crowder. Smart’s market was likely cool, and he will be cheaper than Bradley would have been to re-sign a year from now.
Crowder’s three remaining years at an average of just over $7 million makes him uniquely valuable to contenders, which Boston wants to be. This also created a paradox. In order to trade him, shed salary and get a good return, the Celtics would need to take on a high-end prospect or lucrative pick. Good teams do not have those things, and bad teams don’t want to part with future assets for a contract superstar.
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Bradley was going to either bolt or demand something close to $20 million next summer. Maybe his market would dry up a la Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but Danny Ainge did not want to risk it. He flipped him to Detroit for Morris, another strong value move that does nothing to help Boston against Golden State.
So why exactly are the Celtics considered Warriors challengers? For the same reason their position is temporarily weakened: Asset plays.
Ainge knows that his team cannot beat the Warriors. Thomas or no Thomas, Bradley or no Bradley. They also won’t beat Cleveland, for that matter, and may even fall to that version of the Bucks you dreamt up earlier (probably not, but Antetokounmpo and Irving would be a wonder).
That’s why he is squeezing as much as he can out of every asset he has. Rather than wasting drips while trying to become good enough not to get swept by Golden State, he is saving every ounce of value. He’s been criticized for holding onto his potent trade potion while players such as Jimmy Butler and Paul George have switched teams, but acquiring either would have compromised the cap space needed to sign a comparable player in Hayward outright.
As this offseason has taught us, the league is in flux. Maybe Ainge missed out on the madness, and will have to wait years to find another superstar to trade for.
Or maybe Anthony Davis becomes available in six months, and Ainge calmly plucks him while Oklahoma City and Minnesota helplessly watch from the West’s fifth and sixth seeds. Jayson Tatum, Morris, Baynes, a future first and either the 2018 Brooklyn pick and the Lakers/Sixers pick would likely get the job done. Maybe Marc Gasol hits the market a month later, and the Celtics use Al Horford and the remaining lucrative pick to bring him in.
Next: The biggest winners and losers of 2017 NBA free agency
We can sleep on Boston as a contender until further notice, but we cannot sleep on Ainge. As a matter of fact, if he were the Celtics fan in control of that dream earlier, he’d already have Davis, Gasol and Hayward on the floor. He probably would have flipped Thomas and one or two of his remaining future picks for Irving, too.