Golden State Warriors challengers, Part 1: Rockets can threaten with one more star
Welcome to the Warriors Challengers series. Over the next two weeks, I will make the case for six teams that can prevent Golden State from staking claim to a dynasty. In part 1, we take a look at the Houston Rockets, and whether or not one more addition—say, Carmelo Anthony—is enough to truly contend.
While the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers’ past, present and future dominance over the NBA seems to be endless in both directions, we need look back just over one year to disprove this. Remember May of 2016? The Oklahoma City Thunder were this close to the finals, if not a title.
We could get back there. Kevin Durant‘s move to Golden State made it harder, but not impossible. In order to counteract adding a top-20 all-time player to a 73-win team, two things need to happen. First, a team needs to reach the level that OKC was at before losing Durant. Second, that team needs to add another star.
With the addition of Chris Paul, the Houston Rockets have already accomplished step one. Durant and Russell Westbrook were considered the third and fifth-best players in the league in 2016. In April of this year, I ranked Harden at No. 5 and Paul at No. 7.
While that makes them slightly worse as a duo, their on-court fit mitigates that difference. Those worrying about Paul and Harden being too ball-dominant to coexist should think back to the my-turn-your-turn Thunder of 2016. Neither Durant nor Westbrook is the playmaker Paul or Harden is, and only Durant can claim to have similar gravity off ball to either Rockets guard.
Much like it was with Durant and Stephen Curry last year, the question of who will be Houston’s No. 1 guy will be answered by opponents more than by Mike D’Antoni. If teams put their best wing defender on Harden, expect Paul to run the show, and vice versa.
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This dynamic alone will give the Warriors problems. For the past half decade, Klay Thompson’s all-world defense of each guard position has allowed his backcourt mate to thrive on both ends. He allows Curry to play rover on defense and save energy for offense. Meanwhile, opponents must either put their best backcourt defender—almost always a 2-guard—on Thompson and let Curry light up their point guard, or on Curry and let Thompson shoot over a diminutive counterpart.
Both of these advantages will dry up against the Rockets. Their best backcourt defender is Paul, meaning they can simultaneously put their No. 1 guy on Curry and not allow Thompson to get clean looks. Harden’s defensive engagement will be important, but he’s generally capable of contesting shots with his massive wingspan.
On the other end, Curry will have no hiding place in the backcourt. When he used to face the Clippers, he would guard JJ Redick more than Paul. Against Houston, Patrick Beverley was always his guy; he has never guarded Harden by design. One of those two things will have to change this year, unless the Warriors go with option (stick Curry on Houston’s) 3.
Even if we consider the Rockets roster complete, this is tricky. To hide Curry on Trevor Ariza means putting Durant or Draymond Green on Harden in Golden State’s base lineups. While both can handle the duty, this strategy hurts the defense overall. It brings one of the Warriors’ two best rim protectors and help guys into the pick and roll, or out on the perimeter when Harden is off ball.
The Warriors can counteract this by going small more and putting Andre Iguodala on Harden, but there is no guarantee that the 33 year old will be up to that challenge come next May.
Even if he is, the Rockets have a counterpunch of their own. It is a swing so mighty that even one of the most dominating defenses of the last 20 years may not be able to withstand it should it connect. That swing is adding Carmelo Anthony.
Anthony’s Impact
Right away, Anthony on the Rockets dooms the Warriors’ base lineup. Curry could no longer hide on Houston’s small forward, meaning he’d have to move to the 4. This would either result in wide-open threes for Ryan Anderson (though Anthony would likely need to join the Rockets on a buyout for Anderson to remain on the roster), or unlimited offensive rebounds for Nene should D’Antoni go big (and why wouldn’t he if Curry was defending the 4?).
It is unlikely that Steve Kerr would do this. The more reasonable approach would be to put Curry on Paul. While Paul would relish the chance to vengefully embarrass his State Farm nemesis, the Warriors would accept a 6’0″ guy playing mismatch ball.
Only D’Antoni would not use Paul to attack Curry head on, at least not consistently. Rather, he would use him to put Curry into endless pick and rolls, taking hits from hard screens, switching onto Anthony or Harden (don’t think for a second that Paul-Harden pick and rolls will not be a thing) and losing energy for the other end.
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This says nothing of the other challenges Golden State would face. Zaza Pachulia is already helpless guarding Clint Capela diving to the rim. Green’s help defense will be marginalized with two chess masters running the show. Harden and Anthony have the isolation mastery to punish anyone, even great defenders in Thompson and Durant.
This all leads to one logical conclusion: The Warriors would have to go small significantly more often to gain a clear advantage over the Melo-version of Houston. Doing so would address the Capela issue and juice the Warriors offense to the point that it re-gained the advantage.
However, the Rockets made other additions this summer that give them a deadly small lineup of their own.
First, there’s PJ Tucker. A rugged rebounder, super-switchable defender, capable three-point shooter and physical, competitive maniac, Tucker is an acceptable antidote to Green at center. A lineup of he alongside Ariza, Anthony, Harden and Paul would not only be able to score on the Warriors, but could kind of stop them. Replace Anthony with Luc Mbah a Moute—the Rockets latest coup—on defensive possessions, and Houston would approximate a unit that can truly contend with the Hamptons 5.
Though they lost a ton of depth to bring in Paul, they still have the guy who the Clippers gave up to get Paul in the first place. Eric Gordon is too defensively limited to crack Houston’s best five, but as a seventh or eighth man with unlimited range, he’d give Golden State problems.
Remember, the Warriors won the 2017 Finals in the minutes that LeBron James sat (he was only minus-7 for the series). Kyrie Irving is a mediocre No. 1 guy, and after he and Kevin Love, the Cavs best players are Tristan Thompson, JR Smith, Kyle Korver, Channing Frye and Iman Shumpert.
Paul and Harden each impact the game in a way much closer to James than Irving. After that, Houston’s best players are Ariza, Tucker, Capela, Gordon, Anderson, Nene and Mbah a Moute. Cleveland’s rotation is littered with guys who cannot play against Golden State; Houston’s is loaded with guys who can.
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Throw Anthony onto that list, and you are talking about a legitimate challenger to the greatest team ever assembled.