Miami Heat: Selecting a starting power forward for 2017-18
By Frank Urbina
Picking the starter
We should keep in mind that Johnson was Miami’s most impactful player last season — at least according to on/off numbers.
Per @NBA_Math's new on/off impact tracker, James Johnson was the Heat's most important player in 2016-17. https://t.co/MOWGdKhoRw pic.twitter.com/XI9oXkVcGr
— Frank Urbina (@FrankUrbina_) July 6, 2017
Not only that, but per NBAWowy, from Jan. 15 through the end of the season, Heat lineups that featured both Johnson and Waiters had an absurd 117.5 offensive rating, and an overall net rating of +9.8. The duo gives Miami versatility, shot-making, toughness and creativity. They need to be on the floor together as much as possible.
One common rebuttal to moving the former Demon Deacon into the starting five revolves around the effect it would have on the Heat’s bench. Although it’s true that losing Johnson would hurt Miami’s reserve unit, at the same time, you’re making up for it by adding Olynyk and Winslow.
The former is one of just 11 centers, per Basketball-Reference, to total at least 145 assists throughout the 2016-17 campaign, along with DeMarcus Cousins, Nikola Jokic and Marc Gasol. And he did it in 300 fewer minutes than any other big man listed.
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The latter is one of just 11 forwards (according to Basketball-Reference once again) to average over 3.5 assists a night. Other names on the list include Draymond Green, Paul Millsap and of course, LeBron James.
Both Winslow and Olynyk are able to create from their frontcourt spots, and would make up for the loss of Johnson’s creativity off the bench.
As far as a starting small forward, Spoelstra can turn to Josh Richardson, who has the size to play the position at 6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan, as well as knock down shots from beyond the arc. (Despite various injury struggles last season, Richardson hit 41.8 percent of his threes over Miami’s final 16 games of 2017.)
A Dragic/Waiters/Richardson/Johnson/Whiteside starting five would not only be menacing defensively, but it would also feature three of Miami’s best creators — thus, they’d be excellent on offense too.
Backing them up would be Tyler Johnson, Rodney McGruder, Wayne Ellington, Winslow, Adebayo and Olynyk; much like last season, that’s a strong enough unit to help Miami’s bench maintain its status as one of the league’s best.
Next: 2017 NBA free agency tracker -- Grades for every deal so far
Whatever ends up happening at the 4, one thing is for certain: Spoelstra is going to have fun tinkering with the possibilities. I’m sure he’s as excited for the 2017-18 campaign as the rest of us.