Miami Heat: Selecting a starting power forward for 2017-18

The two primary candidates

Despite Miami having a few other solid options to play at the 4 like Winslow or Adebayo, in reality, it’s more of a two-horse race between Johnson and Olynyk.

First, let’s compare their Per 36 Minutes numbers. (A look at their straight up raw statistics wouldn’t exactly be fair, as Olynyk played about seven fewer minutes per game than Miami’s versatile power forward.)

All stats via Basketball-Reference

As we can tell, the contrast between the two big men isn’t as vast as one might have assumed. Olynyk cleans up a bit better on the glass, while Johnson is a more apt distributor.

Moreover, though it’s true Miami’s returning power forward is a better defender, especially on the perimeter, Olynyk is underrated in that facet. His quick feet, along with his seven-foot, 240-ish-pound frame give him the ability to defend traditional, back-to-the-basket bigs as well as stretch-4s.

The good folks over at BBallBreakdown have a video on the very topic. In it, they posit that Olynyk’s insertion into the Celtics starting five would have solved a lot of their defensive (and offensive) woes, since he would have allowed Al Horford to play more center on the less glamorous side of the ball.

Here are a couple of examples of his underrated defense coming through for Boston, via BBallBreakdown:

So if Olynyk can ably defend mobile power forwards, as well as provide space offensively as a career 36.8 percent three-point shooter, then shouldn’t coach Spoelstra’s decision be an easy one?

I’m not so sure.