Washington Wizards: The 4 quarters of the 2016-17 season
To review the Washington Wizards’ 2016-17 campaign, the regular season can be broken down into three equal sections: the first 27 games, the middle 28 and the final 27 games. The last quarter will be dedicated to the playoffs.
Each section of an NBA season is vastly different from the others. To recap the Washington Wizards‘ 2016-17 campaign, the differences in stats, record, plus/minus and other observations from the different sections of the season are worth examining.
What’s found might seem obvious at times, but it also may be able to shed some light on what the Wizards do best when they win and what they do poorly when they lose. The 2016-17 season is a perfect sample, as this was one of the first years in a while where no player suffered a major injury. For the most part, we were able to see the Wizards near their best for the entire season.
Let’s start with the first quarter, also known as the first 27 games.
First Quarter (First 27 games):
The Washington Wizards got off to a terrible start. In this 27-game span, they went 12-15. There were multiple conversations about trading John Wall for more assets and starting to rebuild. People thought that although Bradley Beal was finally healthy, he wasn’t all he had cracked up to be.
Washington was in real turmoil, and Scott Brooks was feeling the heat. They had brought over this new coach in the offseason to bring a winning culture over. He was supposed to unlock John Wall and bring this team back into playoff basketball.
Yet here they were, below .500. Last year didn’t look so bad anymore, when the Wizards finished 10th in the Eastern Conference with a 41-41 record. To dive in further, the team’s plus/minus was -1.2, which was the worst it got in any of these four sections of their season.
Second Quarter (Middle 28 games):
Things took a dramatic turn over the next 28 games, where the Wizards finished with a 22-6 record. The team started to click on all cylinders. Their offensive rating was at a season-high number and their defensive rating at a season-low. Things were clicking for every role player. If you don’t believe me, look at these numbers:
- Otto Porter Jr. 3PAs (October-November): 3.4
- Otto Porter Jr. 3PAs (December-February): 5.0
This may seem like a minimal change, but Otto Porter Jr. was shooting almost two more three-pointers per game all while keeping an insanely high field goal percentage. This was where he became more than just a reliable scorer; this was the part of the season where he became a deadly scorer.
- Marcin Gortat PPG (October-November): 10.3
- Marcin Gortat PPG (December-February): 12.1
Again, this may not seem like a ton of points, but they do help a team greatly. In the 28 games during this section of the season, Gortat will have scored roughly 338 points. That’s a full 60.7 more points than he totaled in the first quarter of the season. Gortat got back into his scoring ways, helping the Wizards reach the highest offensive rating they had all season.
- Markieff Morris offensive rating (October-November): 99.6
- Markieff Morris offensive rating (December-February): 112
This is the most eye-opening statistic for the second quarter of the season. There wasn’t one category where Morris excelled in during this section either. His points per game went up a bit, but nothing major. But whatever Morris did for them offensively, it worked and it worked well. He was averaging a higher offensive rating than the team as a whole in the second quarter of the season.
Third Quarter (Last 27 games):
This is where things started to calm down for the Washington Wizards’ hot streak. Teams started to adjust to Otto Porter Jr.’s deadly shooting. They respected Gortat’s ability to finish at the rim, and they made sure Beal didn’t get open looks from beyond the arc. Even though he still had great numbers, it was definitely tougher for him.
The Wizards finished this last third of the regular season with a 15-12 record, barely over .500. They once again had a negative plus/minus of -0.2.
But their biggest problem was on the defensive side of the ball. During their final 27 games, the Wizards had a defensive rating of 110.7. Here’s another stat to solidify how bad the Wizards’ defense was in their last 27 games:
Defensive Ratings (final 27 games):
- Marcin Gortat: 115.7
- Otto Porter Jr.: 114.4
- John Wall: 113.3
- Markieff Morris: 112.6
- Average: 114
Those are horrid numbers. To allow an average of 114 points per 100 possessions when those four are on the floor is a bad sign for any team. It felt odd, because most analysts were saying that once you get past their starting lineup, the Wizards didn’t have enough depth. But during the final 27 games of the season, it was the starters who weren’t getting the job done.
Fourth Quarter (Playoffs):
The Wizards never really recovered from the bad defense they were playing. This was also extorted once they started playing against better teams in the playoffs. In the exciting second round of the playoffs, the Wizards and Celtics turned it into an offensive free-for-all.
During that seven-game series, the Boston Celtics averaged a total of 117 points per game. If you knew that number before the series started, you’d essentially know the series was always going to go to the Celtics.
It looked like in the end, the Wizards were defeated by not playing strong enough defense. But unlike the last 27 games in the season, the starters showed up. It was the Wizards’ bench unit that couldn’t keep up:
- Wizards’ starting five defensive rating in the playoffs: 105.7
- Wizards’ bench defensive rating in the playoffs: 116.2
While neither number is a sign of great defense, 116.16 points per 100 possessions is a tough pill to swallow. It may have been why Bradley Beal and John Wall were forced to play an average of 39 minutes per game. They, alongside Scott Brooks, could see their bench unit couldn’t keep up with the other teams in the playoffs.
Final Thoughts:
There are a couple of things to take away from this year’s season, the first being the defense was inconsistent last year and the Wizards need to have more players that can hold their own on that side of the ball. Morris, Gortat and Porter all had moments of great defense, but they need to be more consistent.
We also learned that sometimes NBA analysts are right. Washington’s bench needs some serious improvements. It’s tough to keep leads or come back from deficits if your bench unit has a defensive rating of 116.2.
So why were the Wizards so good in that middle chunk of the season? What were they doing better during those 28 games than in any of their other games? The answer, other than good defensive effort, might be the types of shots they were taking. Below are stats of what percentage of shots came from inside or beyond the three-point arc during all four quarters of the Washington Wizards 2016-17 season:
First 27 Games:
- Points inside the arc: 61.1 percent
- Points beyond the arc: 22.6 percent
Next 28 Games:
- Points inside the arc: 58.5 percent
- Points beyond the arc: 27.2 percent
Last 27 Games:
- Points inside the arc: 56.9 percent
- Points beyond the arc: 26.0 percent
Playoffs:
- Points inside the arc: 58.6 percent
- Points beyond the arc: 23.3 percent
What we can derive from these numbers is that the Wizards are the most successful when a higher amount of their points are coming from three-point land. On a similar note, the team struggled the most in the first 27 games of the season, which was when they shot the highest percentage of shots from two-point range.
We’ve been told for years now that the league is changing. Teams are starting to play their odds with three-point shots rather than midrange looks. Teams like the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, whose rosters are filled with long range shooters, are making it far into the playoffs.
Next: 2017 NBA Draft grades for all 30 teams
There’s no doubt that NBA teams are starting to shift toward a league where teams can live and die by their percentages beyond the arc, and the Wizards’ numbers are just another validation of that movement.