Did the Washington Wizards get the most immediate value in Tim Frazier for their draft pick, or should they have taken their chances with a young prospect?
On Wednesday, the Washington Wizards traded away the 52nd pick in the 2017 NBA Draft for New Orleans Pelicans point guard Tim Frazier.
On the surface, this trade makes a good amount of sense for the Wizards. In the playoffs, it became abundantly clear that John Wall was being overworked in games, averaging 39 minutes a game.
The Wizards desperately needed to gain some depth at the position, especially since Brandon Jennings is a free agent and will most likely not be asked back to the team. Without Frazier, Trey Burke would, on paper, be the backup point guard for the Wizards next season.
Wizards fans wouldn’t be ecstatic about Burke getting more minutes next year. The previous year he averaged 5.0 points and 1.8 assists in 12.3 minutes per game. His plus/minus was a -2.8. Needless to say, these numbers are not what you’d want to see from a backup point guard.
Then comes Tim Frazier, the 6’1″ undrafted 26-year-old who found himself coming off the bench for a terrible New Orleans Pelicans team. Last year, Frazier averaged the following numbers:
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/22/2017.
There’s not much here to get excited about. He’s not a three-point shooter, he’s not an above-average scorer and his defensive stats were average. The one number that does stand out, however, is his assists per game.
In 23.5 minutes, Frazier averaged 5.2 assists per game. Of every player who logged minutes for the New Orleans Pelicans last year, Frazier finished second in assists behind only Jrue Holiday, who averaged 7.3 assists per game.
Just to put Frazier’s assisting ability into perspective, Holiday averaged 32.7 minutes per game, while Frazier averaged just 23.5. After crunching some numbers we can conclude the the following:
- Minutes it takes Jrue Holiday to get an assist: 4.479 minutes
- Minutes it takes Tim Frazier to get an assist: 4.519 minutes
Those numbers are almost identical, meaning Frazier might be just as good at getting buckets for his teammates as Jrue is. But the bigger question still remains: Is Tim Frazier a better pickup than drafting a prospect with the 52nd pick?
For weeks now, I’ve been scouring reports of players around where the Wizards would pick. I had fallen in love with players like Sindarius Thornwell, Tyler Dorsey and Frank Mason. They were all guards who could back up John Wall, and could maybe even develop into a solid NBA player. But those players are out of the window now, and we’re left with the $2 million expiring contract of Tim Frazier.
The benefits of signing Frazier are that he’s already proven to be a successful player in the NBA and limits the obvious risk with drafting a rookie prospect. He has operated out of a pick-and-roll system well and handled the ball effectively before.
He’s also only $2 million on the Wizards’ filled-up books. This might mean they could still try to sign another player to help bolster their bench before the season starts. Frazier is also an expiring deal, making him a very low-risk option, especially since the estimated max cap is projected to be $3 million less than expected this season.
Teams have been informed the NBA expects the salary cap to go down from latest projections, per league source. $99 million the new number.
— Jay King (@ByJayKing) June 22, 2017
The problem is, losing that draft pick comes with the loss of a cheap young player for at least four years. They also forfeit the option of drafting an overlooked player who could actually help them in the playoffs.
The Washington Wizards are in a very tough spot with their cap space. They don’t have much room this year, but they most likely won’t have much for the next two years if their roster stays somewhat similar.
With the contracts of Gortat, Wall, Beal and Otto Porter Jr. if he re-signs, it might be tough for them to attract young talent to the team. That’s why draft picks are so important. The cap is much more flexible in helping sign drafted players, and they are on the books for a relatively cheap contract for a while.
While giving up the 52nd pick in a very deep draft class is unfortunate, the Wizards want to get back to the playoffs and win now. The best way to do that is to sign an experienced point guard who takes care of the ball, and allows John Wall to stay more rested come playoff time.
Next: 2017 NBA Mock Draft: Final edition
Grade: B