Yesterday, my colleague at HoopsHabit, Tevin Williams, asked if the Toronto Raptors should trade for Paul George. My answer is yes. Here’s what a deal might look like.
Let’s start by saying this: Paul George is a superb fit for the Toronto Raptors. To be fair, his skill-set is a snug fit just about anywhere.
But if the Raptors had to choose any one player to fit with their existing core – besides untouchables like Kawhi Leonard or Anthony Davis – it would be George.
Here’s a tidy list of things Toronto needs:
- Wing defense
- Shooting
- Elite talent
George has three career NBA All-Defensive team appearances, shot 39.3 percent from three last season, and is unquestionably an elite-level talent. Toronto needs three-point shooting and defense next to DeMar DeRozan. George offers that, plus the ability to drop 40 any given night.
There are some minor issues. George attempted a career-high number of long twos last year, which doesn’t bode well for a Raptors team that already lives (and dies) in the midrange. But that’s a correctable schematic problem likely to go away if George plays alongside other stars. And make no mistake, Kyle Lowry will re-sign with Toronto if the team somehow acquires George.
Therein lies the problem, of course. The Indiana Pacers are calling everyone now that George has informed Indiana he’s leaving next summer. The Raptors have assets, but not many, and certainly not as many as the Boston Celtics, Phoenix Suns, Denver Nuggets or Los Angeles Lakers.
David Aldridge previously reported that the Pacers are seeking a starter and two first round picks. Although he’s not a starter, Norman Powell is Toronto’s best young player, and he’d surely be involved in any deal, as Bruce Arthur of The Toronto Star wrote yesterday in his excellent piece about the Raptors.
Pacers asking teams for ideas on potential PG trades, per sources, as they have for a while. Ideally: 2 firsts+starter. Teams obv skittish.
— David Aldridge (@davidaldridgedc) June 19, 2017
To match salary, Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri would have to move either Jonas Valanciunas or DeMarre Carroll. It doesn’t really matter who goes – both are likely on the block anyway. Carroll contract comes off the books one year earlier, while Valanciunas is a more valuable player.
As far as picks, the Raptors can offer the 23rd overall selection in Thursday’s draft or any number of future firsts. Powell, contract fille, and No. 23 is a fair starting point for a star player on a one-year deal. In 2014, pre-meltdown Rajon Rondo fetched the Celtics one first-rounder and three players, none of whom were as promising at the time as Powell is now.
That one-year contract, however, is the tricky part. My gut says it is indeed worth mortgaging some of the future to rent Paul George for nine months. By attempting to re-sign a declining Ibaka and an aging Lowry, the Raptors are basically already committing to win-now mode.
Powell is potential insurance if the Raptors fail to win now – and they will fail without George – but he’s miscast as a future star. Unless he really breaks out, Powell’s ceiling seems more like “quality starter” than “long-term insurance policy.” The same goes for the No. 23 pick, which is historically a coin flip.
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Assuming Toronto manages to re-up Ibaka and Lowry, the core four of Lowry, DeRozan, George, and Ibaka make the Raptors quasi-contenders. Even if they wouldn’t be on par with Golden State or Cleveland, they’d have the ammunition to squeak into the Finals if injuries strike in Northeast Ohio.
And critically, they’d also have an above-zero chance at re-signing George in 2018. Sure, the California native is “dead-set” on joining the Lakers, but money matters and so does winning. George was Olympic buddies with DeRozan and Lowry in Rio, the Lakers are still talent-deprived, and with George’s Bird Rights, Toronto could offer more money than any other team.
Even if the chance of re-signing George is 15-20 percent, Ujiri should make this offer. The reward – potentially the greatest year in Raptors history followed by a puncher’s chance at signing a perennial All-Star — outweighs the risk. As is, the Raptors’ future is nothing special.
Maybe another team outbids Ujiri. That’s fine. “Throwing in” a 2019 first round pick or Jakob Poeltl or even Pascal Siakam may be overkill. Picks and cost-controlled young players are too valuable to treat like pawns.
Next: 5 potential Paul George trades
But even if the Lakers offer more, at least Masai Ujiri can say he tried. As I’ve written before about the Raptors, you have to buy a ticket to win the lottery.