What can Phoenix Suns fans expect from the 2017 NBA Draft based on where they’re selecting and what they’ve done in past drafts?
Following their seventh straight trip to the NBA Draft Lottery, the Phoenix Suns are as far away from playoff contention as they’ve been since Steve Nash left. Unlike in past seasons, however, there is reason for long-term optimism thanks to a fledgling youth movement.
With the fourth, 32nd and 54 overall picks in the 2017 NBA Draft, the Suns have a couple of opportunities to add to a young core that already includes Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender, Tyler Ulis, T.J. Warren and Alex Len.
Though the Suns missed out on a top-two pick and the chance at Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball despite finishing with the NBA’s second-worst record, there’s a chance the team’s most commonly mentioned draft target, Josh Jackson, is still available at No. 4.
General manager Ryan McDonough’s luck in the draft has been hit or miss, but 2017 won’t be his first rodeo with a top-five pick (Bender in 2016, Len in 2013).
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This will be second time in a row the Suns select at No. 4, but just the fifth time in franchise history overall. Past selections at that spot include Corky Calhoun (1972), John Shumate (1974), Suns Ring of Honor member Alvan Adams (1975) and last year’s rookie, Dragan Bender.
Calhoun put up 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game in three seasons for the Suns before he was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers. Shumate averaged 11.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in half a season for the Suns before being traded to the Buffalo Braves in a deal that included Gar Heard.
Adams, of course, spent his entire career in the Valley of the Sun, though he unfortunately peaked in his rookie season with 19.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Adams is the franchise’s all-time leader in games played, minutes, total rebounds, steals and defensive win shares, and he’s also second in points, third in assists and fourth in blocks.
Throughout NBA Draft history, the No. 4 pick hasn’t fared as well as one would think. Though there have been a few All-Star and Hall-of-Fame caliber selections at that spot, there have been plenty of duds as well.
The most encouraging picks at No. 4 include franchise players like Kristaps Porzingis (2015), Russell Westbrook (2008), Mike Conley (2007), Chris Paul (2005), Chris Bosh (2003), Rasheed Wallace (1999), Dikembe Mutombo (1991), Micheal Ray Richardson (1978), Dave Cowens (1970), Lou Hudson (1966) and Dolph Schayes (1948).
More often though, the fourth overall pick of the draft yields borderline stars, serviceable role players on successful teams, or good but not great prospects:
- Aaron Gordon (2014)
- Cody Zeller (2013)
- Dion Waiters (2012)
- Tristan Thompson (2011)
- Tyreke Evans (2009)
- Shaun Livingston (2004)
- Drew Gooden (2002)
- Eddy Curry (2001)
- Lamar Odom (1999)
- Antawn Jamison (1998)
- Antonio Daniels (1997)
- Stephon Marbury (1996)
- Jamal Mashburn (1993)
- Dennis Scott (1990)
- Glen Rice (1989)
- Chuck Person (1986)
- Xavier McDaniel (1985)
- Byron Scott (1983)
- Jerry Sloan (1965)
Every championship team needs players like the ones in this group, but those names don’t inspire much hope for finding another franchise cornerstone to pair with Devin Booker.
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Recent No. 4 selections like Gordon, Zeller, Waiters, Thompson and Evans still have plenty to prove in their time in the league. Wesley Johnson (2010), Tyrus Thomas (2006) and Marcus Fizer (2000) are just a few recent examples of how easily the No. 4 pick can go wrong.
However, in perhaps the most talented draft class since perhaps the legendary 2003 NBA Draft, the Suns should be able to find great value at No. 4, even if that player never turns out to be a franchise pillar.
The Suns have picked at No. 32 just twice before, selecting Nick Vanos in 1985 and Chad Gallagher in 1991. Vanos averaged 3.3 points and 3.5 rebounds per game in two seasons for the team before his tragic death in a plane crash. Gallagher never played a game for the Suns and his NBA career lasted a grand total of three minutes over two games for the Utah Jazz.
Looking back through NBA Draft history, the 32nd pick doesn’t often lead to NBA rotation players, though there are some recent picks that offer (slight) hope of landing a serviceable bench player:
- Ivica Zubac (2016)
- Montrezl Harrell (2015)
- K.J. McDaniels (2014)
- Alex Abrines (2013)
- Tomas Satoransky (2012)
- Steve Novak (2006)
- Luke Walton (2003)
- Rashard Lewis (1998)
- Jim McIlvaine (1994)
- Caldwell Jones (1973)
- Bill Bridges (1961)
Finally, even the most loyal of McDonough advocates shouldn’t be holding their breath for the 54th overall pick, since that’s been one of the least successful spots in NBA Draft history.
The Suns have selected there twice before, taking Bayard Forrest in 1975 and Byron Wilson in 1993. Forrest turned down the selection to return for his senior year of college at Grand Canyon University, but played two years for the Suns from 1977-79 after the Seattle SuperSonics drafted him in 1976. Wilson never played a single NBA game.
To be perfectly honest, if Cleveland Cavaliers rookie Kay Felder manages to pan out as a decent role player on a regular title contender, he might make a case for himself as the most successful 54th pick of all time. His competition is really only Sam Mitchell (1985) and Bob Hansen (1992).
Next: Phoenix Suns - 5 options at pick No. 4 in 2017 NBA Draft
The Suns should have tempered expectations entering the 2017 NBA Draft based on the draft history of where they’re selecting, but they’ll have at least two chances at snagging a couple of legitimate difference-makers on June 22 to incorporate with the developing youth movement.