After a solid first season with the Los Angeles Clippers, Wesley Johnson re-upped for a three-year $18 million contract. Sadly, he was far less effective in his second year and may be a sunk cost going forward.
Wesley Johnson moved his locker from one side of the Staples Center to the other in 2015-16. After two mediocre years with the Los Angeles Lakers, Johnson signed a minimum deal with the Los Angeles Clippers. He was an excellent defensive player and was good enough on that end to offset his below-average offensive production.
This year, Johnson maintained his high level of defensive play. However, his already below-average offense fell off a cliff in his second year for the Clippers, and his playing time and role shrank as a result.
The Clippers should expect a little bit of a bounce-back from Wes on the offensive end next year. While he never been a great NBA scorer, last year is still a huge aberration from his prior seasons.
That being said, Johnson is older than people expect given his NBA experience. He will turn 30 during this offseason. The Clippers will have to hope that his offense can return to below-average, as opposed to the borderline-unplayable offense he showed this year.
If Johnson cannot do that, he may quickly become a sunk cost that will seriously hamper the Clippers’ cap sheet. For a team that is already in luxury tax territory, Johnson’s contract could be a serious detriment to their future prospects.
Offense
Wes Johnson was not exactly an offensive juggernaut in his first season for the Los Angeles Clippers. That lack of offense slipped even further in a disastrous second season under Doc Rivers.
Johnson shot only 36.5 percent from the floor. He coupled that with an awful 24.6 percent mark from deep.
Johnson finished the season with a True Shooting Percentage of 44.8 percent. Of the 405 NBA players who averaged more than 10 minutes a game, Johnson ranked 385th. Filter out the players who played in fewer than five games, and Johnson ranked 377th out of 393.
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The irony of Johnson’s abysmal offense is that he was actually quite effective near the basket. The same athletic gifts that make him a good defender allow him to finish around and through contact. Johnson converted on 64.5 percent of his shots from less than five feet from the rim, per NBA.com.
The main issue with Johnson’s offense was his shooting from beyond the arc. Johnson took 59 percent of his attempts from behind the arc but could not convert on those looks. He was bad from everywhere beyond the line. Johnson shot 27.7 percent from the corners and 24.2 percent from above the break, per NBA.com.
Johnson’s awful offensive output this season is probably an aberration. His previous season low from deep was 31.4 percent. Furthermore, he made 43.3 percent of his corner triples in the 2015-16 season. While Johnson will probably not struggle this much on offense again, he was a disaster on that end in 2016-17.
Grade: F
Defense
While his offense is a huge question mark, Wes Johnson makes his opponents play offense like…well, Wes Johnson.
Johnson is an elite wing defender who also excels at defending smaller power forwards. While he struggles to take advantage of his athleticism on the offensive end, the same cannot be said about his defense. He sticks to his opponents on the perimeter and snuffs out pick-and-rolls with vigor. His help defense is also stellar:
The eye test speaks highly of Johnson’s defense, but his advanced numbers might be even more positive. Johnson’s Defensive RPM of 2.62 was fourth among small forwards, per ESPN. He also posted 1.2 Defensive Win Shares, per Basketball-Reference. His Defensive Rating of 104.2 was also significantly below the Los Angeles Clippers’ team mark of 105.8.
Although Johnson saw fewer minutes this year than he had in any of his previous NBA seasons, that is in no way correlated to his defense. He is a top-tier defender and would be able to earn more playing time on a team without an even better defender ahead of him in Luc Mbah a Moute. Wes Johnson’s poor offense makes him hard to play, but that should not serve as a referendum on his stellar defensive output.
Grade: A-
Future Outlook
From a distance, it might appear as if Johnson still has a lot of room to grow. He was the fourth overall pick in 2010. However, Johnson was old when he was drafted, and will turn 30 before next season.
Johnson’s ability to improve his place in the Los Angeles Clippers’ (or any other team’s) rotation will depend on his offensive success. He could climb from a lower end of the rotation player back into a seventh man role if he can return to consistently hitting corner three-pointers.
However, Johnson has probably already hit his peak. While it would be difficult for him to be worse on offense next season, he was never all that useful on that end. His usefulness going forward will depend on whether or not his offense can return to being poor instead of disastrous.
Grade: C-
Overall
Wes Johnson could easily live up to his contract in his final two years. While he fell far short of expectations this year, his past play would indicate that his putrid offense this year was an aberration.
However, Johnson is not as useful to the Los Angeles Clippers as he could be to another team. Although Luc Mbah a Moute could leave in free agency, the Clippers should make him a priority–especially with J.J. Redick being basically guaranteed to depart in free agency.
With Mbah a Moute in Los Angeles, they have no need for a slightly less versatile defender with a worse offensive game. If Mbah a Moute leaves, Johnson would be a solid replacement. However, the Clippers should not try to rely on anyone with such a limited offensive game if they lose a key cog of their offense in Redick.
Wes Johnson is not as ineffective of an offensive player in general as he was this season. That being said, his offense has never been spectacular–or even above average. Unless his three-point shot can climb from near the league worst back to below-average, the front office should look to move him to a team that needs his defensive prowess more than the Clippers do with Mbah a Moute in the fold.
Next: 5 potential landing spots for Chris Paul in free agency
Grade: C