Many news outlets are mocking T.J. Leaf of UCLA to the Miami Heat in the 2017 NBA Draft, but the Heat should not draft him, as he does not fit their system.
As the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery has now been decided, we have entered the season of the mock draft. Every sports outlet will publish weekly, or even daily mock drafts predicting where the top college talents will land in June, and while we all complain, we are all guilty of reading as many mock drafts as humanly possible.
The Miami Heat are one team that finds itself in the lottery, and this is a rarity as it is only their second lottery pick since Dwyane Wade was drafted in 2003. For a team that usually contends, this is very unusual territory.
In their most recent mock, the writers over at the Palm Beach Post paired the Heat with UCLA Power forward T.J. Leaf, who has the potential to become a stretch-4. On the surface, the pick makes sense, as Miami is now a team that shoots a lot of threes, and they need to find the natural heir to Chris Bosh.
I do feel that the Heat writers have chosen the right position, but not the right player in this mock draft. Leaf looks like a good fit on the surface, but he is not a good fit in Miami, for multiple reasons. Mock drafters are making the connection based on the fact that the Heat run a four-out flow offense, but they are completely ignoring the fact that Leaf does not fit Miami on the other side of the ball.
Heat. TJ Leaf, Harry Giles, and Ivan Rabb https://t.co/jpkw1SHrzL
— Franky G 🇩🇴🇨🇺🇺🇸 (@FrankyG_) May 24, 2017
Miami plays a very aggressive defense, with a lot of switching, and Leaf does not fit this. Head coach Erik Spoelstra often opts for very small lineups with a lot of mobility, as he likes to aggressively attack the perimeter, and funnel the opposing offense toward his elite rim protector in Hassan Whiteside. Leaf isn’t necessarily an awful defender, but based on his tape, it is difficult to see him being able to switch onto opposing guards, which is a cornerstone of the Heat defense.
Leaf is also quite weak, and although this is something that could be fixed, he often got bullied at the collegiate level by big-bodied power forwards. Miami’s defense requires to play inside out, and while Leaf has the slender frame able to close out to the perimeter, he could get bullied in the post by bigger players, and there isn’t much evidence to suggest he could switch onto opposing guards.
Leaf’s issue defensively is that he’s actually a good rim protector, but he does not have the strength to be trusted as an anchor in the paint for multiple possessions. It must also be taken into account that the Heat do not need a rim protector, so Leaf’s major defensive strength would not really provide the Heat with much value.
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Offensively, he is a good fit for the Heat, but they have shown that they can find production from people on cheap contracts, so using a high pick on a player as one-dimensional as T.J. Leaf is very unlikely. Luke Babbitt did a great job at the 4 as a floor-spacer and also defended in the post well, so it wouldn’t make sense to use a pick on Leaf when he could honestly end up being a spot-up shooter.
Leaf has some tools that could be sharpened, but someone such as Zach Collins would offer a lot more than just floor spacing as he is an interior threat with the same range. The Heat could also commit to James Johnson as their power forward of their future while drafting someone such as OG Anunoby as their next project wing.
The Heat are a small-ball team and although Erik Spoelstra has shown he can adapt his offense, it would be counterproductive for him to change the team’s playing style again unless they land some big-name free agents.
T.J. Leaf might turn out to be a good player, but he is not really a fit in the Heat’s small-ball offense, and his defensive problems would take a couple of years to erase. For a team that’s quite close to being relevant in the Eastern Conference, taking such a project player does not make a great deal of sense.
Next: 2017 NBA Mock Draft: Post-Lottery edition
If Leaf were a generational talent but also raw, then a selection would be justified, but Pat Riley and co. should let someone else take the risk on him in June, as there are better options there with the 14th overall pick.