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What should the Phoenix Suns do with Alex Len’s restricted free agency?

By Gerald Bourguet

Mar 17, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) runs up the court in the first half of the NBA game against the Orlando Magic at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 17, 2017; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns center Alex Len (21) runs up the court in the first half of the NBA game against the Orlando Magic at Talking Stick Resort Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports /
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Phoenix Suns
Dec 23, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) and center Alex Len (21) against the Philadelphia 76ers at Talking Stick Resort Arena. The Suns defeated the 76ers 123-116. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Expectations for Len’s next contract

Len is not the type of restricted free agent the Suns should actively work to re-sign. He’s the kind to bide their time with, waiting to see if other offers roll in before deciding, and if no other offers come in, perhaps even hoping he plays the 2017-18 season out on his $4.2 million qualifying offer.

That being said, a look at last year’s massive paydays for big men does not inspire much hope the Suns can keep Len on a manageable contract extension if it comes to that:

Howard, Whiteside, Horford and Drummond are clearly in a different tier from Len, but they helped set the market for the atrocities that Mozgov, Plumlee and Noah received. Even the slightly more defendable deals like Biyombo or Mahinmi seem daunting to pay a guy like Len.

Something like Al Jefferson’s three-year, $30 million deal would be much more favorable, but also highly realistic for a 23-year-old with potential. Just because the Suns weren’t willing to start him at center for a full season doesn’t mean other teams with nothing to lose will feel the same.

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Last summer, the Brooklyn Nets weren’t shy about trying to poach other team’s restricted free agents, signing Tyler Johnson to a four-year, $50 million offer sheet before giving Allen Crabbe a four-year, $75 million offer. For a team with cap space that’s been trying to acquire young talent and has not been shy about its intentions of trading Brook Lopez, Len could easily wind up on their radar.

Is it really so unreasonable to suggest the Suns face the prospect of matching a four-year contract offer worth around $16 million-$18 million annually? He’s still young and has more upside than Alan Williams, a player the Suns are high on despite his lack of athleticism and lower ceiling.

Getting Len for $10 million-$12 million a year would be fair value the Suns re-signing Len, but with his market value potential stretching into the $13 million-$18 million range, it’d be unlikely — or foolish — for Phoenix to match that kind of offer.

And even if McDonough could buy some time to tap into Len’s potential with a deal in that $10 million-$12 million range, is that really a preferable option to keeping Phoenix native Alan Williams — another restricted free agent — on a cheaper contract?