Dallas Mavericks: 2017 NBA Draft Lottery odds
After piecing together a competitive roster for over 20 years without much help at the top of the draft, the Dallas Mavericks are in unfamiliar territory as they await their fate at the bounce of some ping pong balls in the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery.
The presence of Dirk Nowitzki has spoiled the Dallas Mavericks, especially on the night of the NBA Draft Lottery.
Since landing Nowitkzi on a draft night trade with Milwaukee nearly two decades ago, Dallas has participated in the draft lottery on just two occasions.
Both times, not much was at stake for the Mavericks.
Two years after landing Nowitzki and Pat Garrity for the rights to Robert Traylor, the sixth overall pick of the 1998 NBA Draft, the draft lottery yielded the 12th overall pick in 2000. Thirteen years later, Kelly Olynyk was chosen by the Mavericks with the 13th selection.
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During the only two draft lottery selections in the Nowitkzi era, Dallas was entrenched with the same selection as its place in the standings.
For the first time since pulling off one of the greatest heists on draft night 19 years ago, the Mavericks are finally in position to add a top-10 draft pick to play alongside Nowitzki, as he will be 39 when the 2017-18 season tips off.
Dallas closed out the 2016-17 season with a 33-49 record and missed the postseason for just the second time in the last 17 years.
The Mavericks enter Tuesday’s 2017 NBA Draft lottery with the ninth best odds of landing the first overall pick after closing out the regular season by dropping 11 of their last 15 contests.
Here is a complete breakdown of the percentages for each draft option for the Dallas Mavericks in 2017.
- 1st: 1.7%
- 2nd: 2.0%
- 3rd: 2.4%
- 9th: 81.3%
- 10th: 12.2%
- 11th: 0.4%
Dallas is hoping the presence of Michael Finley will bring some luck to the franchise seeking to move up in the draft lottery for the first time in over two decades.
While the ninth best odds on lottery night carry just a 6.1 percent chance of moving up to a top-three selection, the position has historically been one of the most beneficial.
Since 1993, the team with the ninth best odds has won the draft lottery twice (Chicago in 2008 and Cleveland in 2014), nearly equalling the amount of times the team with the worst record in the league has selected first overall (four).
The ninth overall pick has been one of the most prolific positions to select All-Star talent over the past two decades.
Since Toronto tabbed Tracy McGrady with the ninth overall pick in the 1997 NBA Draft, nine other players picked in that spot have earned at least one All-Star appearance.
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Along with McGrady, Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Amar’e Stoudemire, Andre Iguodala, Joakim Noah, DeMar DeRozan, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker and Andre Drummond have all been selected as All-Stars after being chosen with the ninth overall pick.
In the 37-year history of the Mavericks franchise, the team has chosen ninth overall three times, selecting Rolando Blackmon (1981), Dale Ellis (1983) and Samaki Walker (1996).
Dallas has landed a top-three selection just twice, choosing Mark Aguirre (1981) and Jason Kidd (1994).
Instead of taking the path of building a contender through the draft, a tactic most teams have employed en route to an NBA title, the Mavericks have found success by constantly shuffling the cast around Nowitkzi through free agency.
Injuries, trades and contract buyouts led to 24 different player suiting up for Dallas last season. Only New Orleans (26) had more players appear on the court during the 2016-17 season.
With a 93.5 percent chance of landing the ninth or 10th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, the Mavericks will be in prime position to land any player that unexpectedly slips.
The 2017 NBA Draft class features plenty of intriguing options, but perhaps the most attractive player for the Mavericks if they were to pick ninth would be selecting another stretch-4, providing Nowitzki an opportunity to mentor a player with his skillset prior to retiring.
The primary target would be Arizona forward Lauri Markkanen, a seven-footer from Finland capable of playing either the center or power forward position.
During his lone season with the Wildcats, Markkanen connected on 42.3 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc while averaging 15.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game and routinely drawing comparisons to Nowitzki.
The two even met prior to a Mavericks game in Phoenix on Ap. 9. Nowitzki has already revealed he plans on playing his 20th season in the NBA next year and may even play in 2018-19 if he feels healthy enough.
Markkanen will turn 20 a month prior to the NBA Draft on June 22 and if he is able to serve as an apprentice under Nowitzki for two seasons, he could turn into a premier player.
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Before the Mavericks can start narrowing down draft options, they will need to see what position it will be selecting, with the 2017 NBA Draft lottery set to take place Tuesday night in New York.