Denver Nuggets: Let’s pump the brakes on this Kyle Lowry “fit”

Kyle Lowry may have played his last game in Toronto. Some believe the Denver Nuggets are a potential landing spot, but that apparent fit is a mirage.

The Denver Nuggets fell just short of the playoffs this year, and some believe they should look to add a veteran free agent to their young core. Rumors have already swirled around Denver’s interest in free agents-to-be Gordon Hayward and Paul Millsap. But following Cleveland’s dismantling of the Toronto Raptors, a new name has surfaced.

Year after year, Toronto assembled a team that was good enough to make the playoffs. A team worthy of consideration as a possible Eastern Conference champion. But in truth, in each of those years Toronto’s fate was pre-determined. Their fate was sealed long before the start of the playoffs, or even the start of the regular season.

As long as LeBron James resides in the East, it belongs to him, and Kyle Lowry may have finally had enough.

"“They’ve got LeBron James,” Lowry told The Vertical late Friday night. “Nobody’s closing the gap on him. I mean, that’s it right there: They’ve got LeBron James and nobody’s closing the gap on him.”"

Now as Lowry gears up for a stint in free agency, ESPN’s Marc Stein reports that he may be considering a big change.

The West is stacked, but there’s also no LeBron. It makes sense that Lowry might be ready for a change of conference. There are multiple Western Conference teams that have already been linked to Lowry: Dallas, San Antonio, and even Denver.

Ortiz is not the only one who has made this suggestion, as many see Lowry as a good fit in Denver.

The Nuggets have a unique weapon in point-center Nikola Jokic, and surrounding him with shooters should be their objective. Lowry just wrapped up the best year of his career, but the biggest takeaway was his improvement from three-point range: 3.2 makes per game on 7.8 attempts were both career-highs, as he shot above 40 percent from deep for the first time in his career.

Improving the defense is also a top priority for the Nuggets. Lowry is considered one of the better defensive guards in the league and he would be a massive upgrade in that regard. Jokic is a treat to watch, but you need some playmaking from your point guard. That too, Lowry brings to the table. There’s certainly an apparent fit here.

This is all exciting, and it makes for some excellent offseason conversation, but let’s pump the brakes a bit.

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Kyle Lowry is a 31-year-old with a notable injury history and reputation for poor playoff performances. Handing him a max contract and expecting some sort of massive change in the trajectory of the franchise is idealistic at best, if not naive.

Lowry would undoubtedly make Denver a better basketball team, but he wouldn’t vault them into the West’s elite. No matter what path Denver takes, it’s still some years away from that status.

The Nuggets want to avoid the fate that Toronto locked itself into. They stand little to gain from throwing themselves against the brick walls of Golden State, San Antonio, or even Cleveland to no avail for the next four seasons. Denver should do the sensible thing and stay patient.

They’re in a unique situation as a team. Few other front offices can run it back and expect steady improvement without worrying about upsetting the fan base or losing the favor of an impatient owner. The Nuggets are sitting on a gold mine. There’s no need to sell off parts of the quarry for a player like Lowry.

Denver can certainly afford him, but that’s only if Danilo Gallinari opts out and the team cuts ties with Mike Miller.

Additionally, bringing in Lowry virtually requires Denver to move on from either Emmanuel Mudiay or Jamal Murray, the two guard prospects that Denver drafted seventh overall in each of the last two drafts. It hardly seems worth it to rush one or two of these players out of town just for a shot at the sixth or seventh seed.

Admittedly, this conversation becomes slightly different when opened up to include other roster moves. Lowry plus Jokic and co. won’t contend in the West. The move would only make sense if the team was planning to follow it up by bringing additional talent in. But what players that would move the needle are actually available via trade?

There are two names that come up if you spend some time on Nuggets Reddit or combing through the comment sections of Denver blogs: Jimmy Butler and Paul George.

A package featuring one of the young guards, Wilson Chandler plus multiple first rounders might get the deal done in NBA 2K. But it won’t pry Jimmy Butler from the Chicago Bulls in real life.

Paul George’s situation is different, as Indiana is losing leverage in trade negotiations with each passing day. But remember that George would have to re-sign in Denver, and there’s certainly no guarantee of that happening with the Los Angeles Lakers looming large in free agency. The big trade option is a pipe dream.

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Denver could also look to sign Lowry and bring Gallo back, or pursue a player like Otto Porter. But they would have to clear some cap space via trades. They would likely be selling low on a valuable contract in Chandler, and a player they drafted seventh overall not too long ago.

Plus, it’s highly unlikely that Otto Porter leaves Washington as a restricted free agent. And even if he did sign with Denver, that team would still be a long way from competing with the likes of Houston, San Antonio, and Golden State.

It’s hard to envision a scenario in which Lowry turns this Nuggets team into something they couldn’t become without him over time.

You can disagree with me on Lowry’s value to Denver, as I’m sure many will. But even if you like the fit on Denver’s end, it’s really hard to believe that Lowry sees the Nuggets as the most desirable destination.

The Nuggets simply are not going to surpass the top teams in the West any time soon. If Lowry is willing to settle for anything less than immediate contention, then he’ll likely re-sign with Toronto, as they can offer him the most money.

But Lowry wants rings and in order to survive the trials of a Western Conference playoff run, he’ll have to find his way onto a team that’s already in contention and looking for a point guard. There’s only one team that fits that bill: the San Antonio Spurs.

This is a better fit for both parties involved. San Antonio is still among the elite teams of the West, but they’re in need of a successor to the 34-year-old Tony Parker. A true point guard is just what the Spurs need. A true contender is just what Lowry is looking for. This very well could happen.

Next: 5 potential landing spots for Kyle Lowry in free agency

Kyle Lowry to the Denver Nuggets sounds like a lot of fun, but it’s probably not going to happen. And that’s probably for the best.