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2016-17 NBA Awards Season: Ranking The Top 4 MVP Candidates

By Gerald Bourguet

Mar 26, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) shake hands after a game at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 26, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) shake hands after a game at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 24, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) celebrates after making a basket during the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Pelicans at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

Exceeding Expectations

It’s funny that so many people think Harden has much more help than Westbrook, because they seem to be forgetting that heading into the 2016-17 campaign, the Thunder were mostly expected to be a playoff team. The Rockets were expected to be fighting for the 8-seed.

Even the official over/under projections before the season began had Houston barely winning 44 games, with OKC a smidgeon behind at 43.5:

The Rockets wound up blowing that projection out of the water with 55 wins. OKC also exceeded expectations with 47 wins, but Houston was clearly one of the NBA’s biggest overachievers this year.

Preseason predictions always have to be taken with a grain of salt, but that grain adds a bit of extra flavoring to an MVP race. Similar to narrative, how a team over- or underachieves matters in this context. While OKC is basically who we thought they were, the Rockets being a completely different monster under Harden’s hand should’ve factored into voters’ decisions.

Advantage: Harden