NBA Playoffs 2017: Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks Preview

The 2017 NBA Playoffs are finally here. In the first round, the Toronto Raptors take on the up-and-coming Milwaukee Bucks.

It wasn’t long ago the Toronto Raptors were in the same position as the Milwaukee Bucks. An up-and-coming team, confident but inexperienced. While the Bucks made the playoffs two years ago, they are looking to establish themselves as a legitimate force in the Eastern Conference as the 2017 NBA Playoffs tip off.

Both teams have had their share of adversity throughout the year. The Raptors were without Kyle Lowry for more than a month as he recovered from surgery on his shooting hand. For the Bucks, they played until February without their best player from last year, Khris Middleton.

To make matters worse, in Middleton’s first game back, Jabari Parker tore his ACL for the second time.

Regardless of the setbacks both teams have faced, they have found a way to show resilience and overcome adversity. What we have now is a showdown between two of the hottest teams in the Eastern Conference. Let’s dive into how these teams match up:

Likely Starting Lineups

Point Guard

Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. Malcolm Brogdon (MIL)

A common theme you’ll hear in this preview is the length of Milwaukee in comparison to Toronto. While MIlwaukee initiates its offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon provides them with secondary play-making and shooting, as well as a strong defensive presence.

In theory, Brogdon’s 6-foot-5 frame could cause issues for Kyle Lowry. But per NBA.com, Lowry shot 50 percent with Brogdon on the court and 50 percent when he was off against the Bucks.

While Lowry may struggle with his shot coming off surgery, he’s found ways to be productive without his shot in the past.

Advantage: Toronto

Shooting Guard

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. Khris Middleton (MIL)

While it likely will fly under the radar, the matchup of DeMar DeRozan against Khris Middleton will be one of the best individual battles of the first round. The Raptors haven’t seen much of Middleton this year, as he missed the first three games of the season series.

Often overlooked in favor of more flashy shooting guards, his combination of three point shooting, elite isolation scoring and lockdown defense make the 6-foot-8 Middleton a handful.

On the other side, we have DeRozan, who is just the third shooting guard in the last 20 years to average at least 27 points per game while attempting fewer than two 3-pointers a game. He joined Michael Jordan and Dwyane Wade in that category.

In Lowry’s absence, DeRozan stepped up his defensive effort as well as play-making.

When the starters are on the court, DeRozan may be able to rest defensively against Tony Snell.

Toronto Raptors

However, if Toronto goes with its starting lineup, having two big men on the floor could prove to be a problem, meaning the team would need to put one of their bigs on Snell in favor of cross-matching DeMarre Carroll onto Giannis Antetokounmpo.

If that’s how things play out, the matchup against Middleton will be a true test for him. It will also be an opportunity for DeRozan to show that he is an improved, legitimate star in the league.

Advantage: Toronto

Small Forward

DeMarre Carroll (TOR) vs. Tony Snell (MIL)

I’m cheating a little bit here, because Tony Snell would probably be listed by most as a shooting guard. But with Khris Middleton covering DeMar DeRozan, it’ll fall on Snell to defend DeMarre Carroll.

Carroll has had his worst year as a Raptor, despite being healthier than in past years. His 72 games played is the high watermark for his time in Toronto, yet his three-point percentage has dipped to 34.1 percent after finishing better than 39 percent in his first two years as a Raptor.

The team’s defensive rating is also 2.4 points worse with him on the court compared to when he sits.

Meanwhile, Snell has been a huge surprise for the Bucks. After acquiring him before the season for Michael Carter-Williams, Snell has been a rock in the Bucks starting lineup. He’s averaging 8.5 points per game on 45.5 percent shooting from the floor and 40.6 percent from three.

At 6-foot-7, Snell has the frame to be a high-impact defender. Although his season-long numbers don’t indicate that being the case. I would give him the edge over Carroll, as he has been far more reliable all season long.

Advantage: Milwaukee

Power Forward

Serge Ibaka (TOR) vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)

The historic season put forward by Russell Westbrook and James Harden have overshadowed a lot of great stories around the association. If you missed it, the 2016-17 season was the year Giannis Antetokounmpo made the leap to legitimate superstar.

Giannis is the first player in NBA history to be in the top 20 for points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per game. At just 22 years old, his stat line of 22.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.6 steals per game on 52.2 percent shooting is frightening.

Not to mention he is doing all of that as a 7-foot wing.

While he doesn’t have a lot of playoff experience, the regular season would indicate that Antetokounmpo is the best player in this series.

Serge Ibaka has been fantastic since joining the Raptors, averaging 14.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.9 percent from the floor and 39.8 percent from three.

Defensively, Ibaka has shown the ability to switch onto wings

Advantage: Milwaukee

Center

Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) vs. Thon Maker (MIL)

Both Jonas Valanciunas and Thon Maker project to be the starting centers to open the series; however, how much they play is unclear. Maker has only played about 13 minutes per game since being inserted into the starting lineup.

The Bucks place a premium on having long wings on the court, rather than a more traditional look. As a result, they only really have room for one big man at a time. With Maker, John Henson, Greg Monroe and Spencer Hawes deserving of minutes, the position is typically handled by committee.

For Toronto, this is where things get complicated. Ideally, Valanciunas would be much better suited to go up against the Bucks’ bench.

Valanciunas is a capable post defender, so he wouldn’t be outmatched against Monroe. However, against the starting lineup, there’s nowhere for him to hide.

Milwaukee Bucks

Ideally you’d like to have wings matched up against Snell, Middleton and Antetokunmpo. But if Toronto starts Valanciunas alongside Ibaka, that means that one of the big men will be left chasing wings on the perimeter.

This would be a waste of Ibaka’s ability and something Valanciunas physically cannot do.

On the other end, Valanciunas should be able to manhandle Maker, who lacks the strength and experience to deal with the savvy post scorer. This could force Bucks coach Jason Kidd to abandon his game plan and go big to better defend these looks.

Or he could elect to go with Henson, who can do a better job on Valanciunas while Milwaukee can keep their four-wing look.

The balance between the mismatch Valanciunas creates on offense and his liabilities as a defender will be a key to this series. If DeRozan and Lowry struggle early on, Valanciunas may be called on to bail out the Raptors’ playoff offense, as he has in the past.

If they aren’t struggling, the offense is better left being run through the perimeter, with Valanciunas in a reserve role.

Advantage: Toronto

Sixth Man/Bench

This is where Toronto has it’s biggest advantage in this series, from super-subs in P.J. Tucker and Patrick Patterson to quality wings in Norman Powell, Cory Joseph, and Delon Wright. The Raptors have a legitimate claim to having the deepest bench in the league.

For Milwaukee, they will need to rely on the controversial Matthew Dellavedova, Michael Beasley, Greg Monroe, John Henson, Mirza Teletovic and Jason Terry for their bench production. It’s not a bad bench, but far from as reliable as Toronto.

Advantage: Toronto

Coaching

Dwane Casey (TOR) vs. Jason Kidd (MIL)

Round one between these coaches went in favor of Jason Kidd, as his Brooklyn Nets eliminated the Raptors at Air Canada Centre in Game 7 in the 2014 first round.

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Like that series, this promises to be a hard-fought, physical series. As I previously mentioned, there are matchup advantages on both sides of the court. How the coaches navigate these advantages and the adjustments they make could decide this series.

Casey has more experience and has helped the Raptors navigate injury, as well as poor performances from their stars, in past playoff performances. This is a more experienced team than the last time these coaches faced off.

Advantage: Toronto

Key Match-Up

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. Khris Middleton (MIL)

It’s unclear who Toronto will put on Antetokounmpo, so I’m going to go with Middleton against DeRozan. DeRozan will need to be sharp on both ends of the floor, as Middleton will try to force him into tough shots, and can expose him if his defense isn’t up to par.

If DeRozan wins this matchup, the Raptors should have little trouble in this series.

Next: 25 Greatest Playoff Performers of All-Time

Toronto Will Win If:

Lowry and DeRozan show up. Both have playoff demons to overcome, but if they do, Toronto has too much firepower for Milwaukee.

Milwaukee Will Win If:

Their length proves to be too much for the Raptors. The Bucks can play a small-ball style while still having a ton of length at every position. Once Middleton returned, the Bucks became one of the hottest and most dangerous teams in the East.

If they can make this series ugly, they have a chance to pull off the upset.

Prediction:

Toronto in six games.