NBA Playoffs 2017: Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview
In the first round of the 2017 NBA playoffs, the third-seeded Houston Rockets will face the sixth-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Here’s a breakdown and preview of the series.
Well, we have been gifted the matchup we’ve all wanted to see in the 2017 NBA Playoffs. MVP candidate versus MVP candidate. “Beard” vs. “Brodie”. The Houston Rockets facing off against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Buckle up.
This series will be headlined by the two MVP candidates, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. However, the series will most likely come down to which player’s supporting cast can outperform the other.
The Rockets won the season series 3-1, but the first three games were decided by a total of seven points. The Rockets enter the postseason as one of the most surprising teams in the league, having vastly outperformed the preseason predictions and over/unders made on them.
Meanwhile, the Thunder did an excellent job recovering from the loss of Kevin Durant to comfortably make the playoffs.
There are plenty of matchups and adjustments each team will have to make, so let’s dive in to some of the matchups, starting with the likely starting lineups.
Point guard
Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. James Harden (HOU)
Although they are both the point guards on offense, neither Westbrook or Harden will be guarding each other on the defensive end, making it hard to evaluate which team has the advantage at point.
Both Westbrook and Harden have been spectacular this season, putting up triple doubles left and right while being the driving forces behind their team’s success.
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It’s important to note that James Harden has struggled against the Thunder this season, shooting just 34.3 percent from the field, 22.6 percent from beyond the arc and averaging 6.2 turnovers per game in the four games the teams played.
While it’s likely Harden reverses those fortunes in the playoffs, it’s comforting for the Thunder that they have been successful in limiting Harden this season.
Advantage: Push
Shooting guard
Victor Oladipo (OKC) vs. Patrick Beverley (HOU)
This is another matchup that includes two players who won’t be guarding each other on the defensive end. However, focusing on their offensive impacts, it’s tough to see a clear advantage for one team at the 2-guard position.
While Oladipo hasn’t taken the proverbial next step as a player, he has still had a solid season, averaging 15.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game.
Perhaps more importantly, Oladipo has also developed into a capable shooter, hitting 36.1 percent of his three-pointers this season, allowing him to effectively play off the ball next to Westbrook.
On the other hand, Beverley does the dirty work for the Rockets: play tough defense and rebound. Beverley averaged 5.9 rebounds per game, and owns a defensive real plus-minus of 1.89, good for fifth in the league among guards.
Beverley will tasked with the (basically) impossible job of stopping Russell Westbrook. When Beverley is healthy and locked in, he has shown the capability to do so for stretches of games:
On the offensive end, if Beverley is hitting his threes, he also becomes a small threat on that side of the ball, which makes him even more important for the Rockets.
Advantage: Push
Small forward
Andre Roberson (OKC) vs. Trevor Ariza (Hou)
There will be a lot of cross matchups in the series, making it hard to evaluate the teams position by position. However, Trevor Ariza’s ability to contribute on both ends of the floor make him vital to the Rockets’ success.
Roberson has been a brilliant defender this season. He is the player most responsible for Harden’s struggles against the Thunder this season, making Roberson crucial for the Thunder.
Billy Donovan will have to be smart in matching up Roberson’s minutes with Harden’s in order to get his best perimeter defender on “The Beard” at all times.
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With that being said, Roberson is a liability on offense (and that might be putting it nicely). Roberson hit just 24.6 percent of his threes this season and an even more shocking 42.3 percent of his free throw attempts.
Roberson is the player the Rockets will dare to shoot when on the floor and if his season averages are any indication of playoff performance, that will be the smart strategy for Houston.
Meanwhile, even though he isn’t the player he once was, Ariza can still contribute on both ends of the floor. He has a positive offensive (0.6) and defensive (1.0) box plus-minus and hit 34.3 percent of his three-pointers this season.
Advantage: Houston Rockets
Power forward
Taj Gibson (OKC) vs. Ryan Anderson (HOU)
The matchup of power forwards in this series is a fascinating one, as it pairs two vastly different play styles against each other. For the Rockets you have Anderson, an elite three-point shooter who lacks a physical presence and is a poor rebounder.
For the Thunder you have Gibson, a physical defender and rebounder who you won’t see hanging around the arc on offense.
This matchup is an important one because if Anderson is hitting his threes, it will force Billy Donovan to choose between playing two traditional bigs or going small in order to have a player that can guard Anderson on the perimeter.
Anderson has hit 40.4 percent of his threes this season and he runs countless pick and pops with James Harden to get open looks. If Gibson can’t contain Anderson on the perimeter, his playing time will likely be reduced in favor of a smaller, more agile defender.
Where Gibson can hurt Houston is by being a physical defender and rebounder. This season Gibson averaged 8.8 rebounds per game per-36 minutes and the Rockets are certainly susceptible to being beaten on the glass.
If Gibson wants to stay on the floor, he will have to defend well in the paint and expose the Rockets on the boards. However, it’s more likely that Anderson’s shooting puts Gibson on the bench for large stretches of this series.
Advantage: Houston Rockets
Center
Steven Adams (OKC) vs. Clint Capela (HOU)
This is a matchup of two young, developing big men that have great potential. After taking fans by storm with his incredible playoff performance last season, Adams has disappointed this season, averaging just 11.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game.
Oklahoma City Thunder
However, Adams is still an imposing presence in the paint, posting a defensive box plus-minus of 1.1.
Meanwhile, Capela has blossomed as the Dwight Howard replacement.
Averaging 12.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game in just less than 24 minutes per game (nearly six minutes less than Adams averages per game), Capela has developed great chemistry with James Harden in the pick-and-roll.
Capela is also a capable defender, owning a 1.0 defensive box plus-minus as well as a higher block percentage (4.2 percent to 2.6 percent) than Adams.
As a result of Capela’s growth, he has firmly established himself as a key cog in the Rockets’ offensive machine, while also providing a lift defensively.
If you are going solely of this past regular season, you would think that Capela provides the Rockets with an advantage. However, we’ve seen what Adams can be capable of (especially in the playoffs), making him a real force down low for the Thunder.
Advantage: Push
Bench/sixth man
Oklahoma City: Enes Kanter, Alex Abrines, Jerami Grant, Domantas Sabonis, Semaj Christon
Houston: Eric Gordon, Lou Williams, Nene, Montrezl Harrell, Troy Williams
Houston Rockets
The Rockets gain a clear advantage when the teams go to their second units. The Rockets have two Sixth Man of the Year candidates in Gordon and Williams, along with the reliable (and revitalized) Nene.
Sam Dekker will miss this series, but Troy Williams and Montrezl Harrell will be able to fill any remaining minutes.
For Oklahoma City, their bench has been a problem all season when Westbrook is off the floor.
However, things aren’t all that bad. Enes Kanter is also a Sixth Man of the Year candidate and has done well against the Rockets this season, shooting 62.5 percent from the field while averaging 14 points and 6.8 rebounds per game in the four matchups.
Abrines is a capable shooter, while Grant is a tremendous athlete and solid defender. It isn’t all gloom and doom on the Thunder bench.
However, their second unit should be no match for Houston’s, as Gordon and Williams are capable of single-handedly taking over a game with their scoring. Nene has been great for the Rockets this season, especially on the defensive end where he owns a 3.03 defensive real plus-minus.
The Rockets’ bench is a big reason why the team is able to handle the minutes when Harden is off the floor, giving Houston a clear advantage in this matchup.
Advantage: Houston Rockets
Coaching
Billy Donovan (OKC) vs. Mike D’Antoni (HOU)
This is a fascinating matchup of two teams (and coaches) that play two different styles of basketball. On the one hand Donovan leads a physical, defensive-minded Thunder team while D’Antoni leads a free-flowing, offensive juggernaut in the Rockets.
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While D’Antoni has more playoff experience, there have been instances where his offensive-minded teams have struggled in the slower atmosphere of the postseason. Donovan proved to be an excellent coach in last season’s playoffs, making this matchup a toss-up.
Advantage: Push
Key Match-up
Andre Roberson (OKC) vs. James Harden (HOU)
As mentioned previously, Roberson will be tasked with limiting Harden. So far this season, Roberson has done a good job of doing so. I noted Harden’s struggles against the Thunder this season earlier, and most of those struggles are a result of Roberson’s excellent defense.
If Roberson can continue to stifle Harden, that will put more pressure on Houston’s supporting cast, something the Thunder would love to occur. If Roberson has trouble limiting Harden, the Thunder will be in trouble trying to stop a full-fledged Rockets offense.
Oklahoma City Will Win If…
Roberson limits Harden, Westbrook continues his incredible season and the Thunder play excellent team defense and expose the Rockets on the glass.
Houston Will Win If…
Harden figures out the Thunder’s defense, the supporting cast continues to play well and the team shoots well from beyond the arc.
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Prediction:
Houston Rockets defeat Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2.