Elfrid Payton is having a fine season for the Orlando Magic, but the comparisons with Michael Carter-Williams are concerning.
The Orlando Magic are faltering towards the end of this season, one which started with genuine hope.
They have many decisions to make this summer, and it will start with what kind of player they draft once they know their position in the lottery.
Other pressing questions include whether or not Evan Fournier can be this team’s top offensive option, and if Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo can be on the same team.
One player whose play is ensuring he will be talked about just as much is point guard Elfrid Payton. Now in his third year with the team, Payton has five triple-doubles this season, the most in Magic history.
He is also averaging career highs in points (12.6), rebounds (4.7), effective field goal percentage (49 percent) and Player Efficiency Rating (17).
Since the turn of the calendar year, he is usually the best player on the court for the Magic, and he looks like he genuinely cares too. This is something that can’t be said for every player on the roster. The point is, Payton is making it hard for this team not to keep him long-term.
This despite the fact that the foundations of his game (driving to the lane, points in the paint) go against the pace and space era which we find ourselves in today.
Which is ok, after all we don’t want every player doing the same things on the court. Where is the fun in that?
Unfortunately for Payton however, the numbers would suggest that being a three=point threat who can space the floor would be good for his game.
Indeed, on any given night when the Magic are on the road, the opposing team’s commentators will often bring up how he is a consistent three-point shot away from being a top player.
So the 26.8 percent he’s shooting from long range is not ideal, and it shows no signs of changing either.
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But despite Payton putting up some of the best numbers of his young career, he may actually have a lot in common with Michael Carter-Williams.
That is not a good thing.
Carter-Williams was drafted by the Philadelphia 76ers back in 2013, and he entered the league as a 22-year-old.
Payton is the same age now, and that may be important. In any event, Carter-Williams went on to win the Rookie of the Year award.
He did so by averaging more points (16.7) and assists (6.3) than Payton has ever come close to.
How did the 76ers repay their budding young star? By trading him to the Milwaukee Bucks halfway through the next season. At the time it was a somewhat puzzling move, but Philadelphia saw the writing on the way (and The Process was beginning to take hold too).
Carter-Williams wasn’t the surefire superstar they wanted, so rather than see how good he could become, they moved him and went back to the draft.
Now, that is not necessarily what the Magic should do with Payton. Not with their recent draft history. But do they need to be more aggressive in how they handle this roster? After all, they had no problems moving on from Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris.
As of now, Payton is averaging fewer points and assists than Carter-Williams during his first season, and also they both are averaging just over 26.5 percent from three pointers.
Elfrid Payton has 8 career triple-doubles. The Magic have only won 3 of those 8 games.
— SBG (@ORLGators) April 2, 2017
Payton, know for his drives to the basket, is shooting 68.8 percent from the line off of 2.6 attempts per game. This is a career-high in attempts and makes for Payton.
Carter-Williams during his first season shot 70.3 percent on 5.2 attempts a night, although his effective field goal percentage of 43.1 was much lower than Payton’s.
Payton has better offensive and defensive numbers (0.5 in both categories) than Carter-Williams had his rookie season (-0.6 and 0.4 respectively), but they’re not too far apart.
Both also shared similar defensive win-shares, Payton’s calling card of 2.1 (Carter-Williams) and 2.0 (Payton).
Despite the short gap between Carter-Williams being drafted and today, the league has changed significantly, and that has to be taken into account.
But if you put Carter-Williams on this Magic team as it’s starter, would they be much worse?
In fact it’s possible he’d put up better numbers than Payton, while also getting some triple-doubles of his own.
None of this is designed to bash the excellent job Payton is doing in leading this team at the moment, but the future of this franchise needs to be considered.
If he is at the helm as a starter come next season, will the team be able to take the next step? Should they draft a point guard, would Payton be a better bet coming off the bench? That would be an interesting experiment worth considering.
But the small matter of paying him is going to become an issue soon, what with next season being the final year of his rookie deal.
The Magic have already committed funds to Fournier, Biyombo and Vucevic, although none of those break the bank.
But it may be time to consider that Payton, for all of the great things he does for this team, can only take them so far. Just like Michael Carter-Williams.
Which is the most concerning comparison of all. For all of the numbers that may seem similar on the surface, the reality that both players are not elite at their position is the most important.
Next: 10 Matchups We Want To See In The 2017 NBA Playoffs
The Orlando Magic could do worse than keep Elfrid Payton as their point guard long-term, but they could also do better. Just ask the Philadelphia 76ers.