Evaluating The Nicolas Batum Puzzle

Nicolas Batum signed a five-year, $120 million deal over the summer with the Charlotte Hornets. Why hasn’t Batum become the scoring threat many predicted him to grow into?

When the Charlotte Hornets acquired Nicolas Batum in exchange for Gerald Henderson and Noah Vonleh in the summer of 2015, Hornets fans rejoiced as they saw a 6-foot-8 stat-sheet stuffer with his best days ahead of him.

Many anticipated Batum being the ideal complement to Kemba Walker‘s rapidly evolving game, held back by the Portland Trail Blazers ball-dominant troupe of players.

And on some nights, Batum turns in a performance that makes Hornets fans and personnel fall in love all over again with his five-tool ability.

Batum is one of three players this season to average at least 15 points, six rebounds, five assists per game and shoot at least 35 percent from the 3-point line.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/11/2017.

So why haven’t the flashes Batum showed in Portland turned into business as usual in Charlotte? The answer lies in the in-between game.

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Batum is shooting by far a career-low number on 2-point attempts, settling in at 43.5 percent currently, with his next-lowest average at 48.1 percent in 2014-15 with the Trail Blazers. He’s also taking a career-high number of 2s with 7.4 per contest, according to Basketball Reference.

Batum is shooting 63.2 percent around the rim, a decent percentage, but that number plummets when he settles in between the rim and the 3-point line.

Of Batum’s 763 shots this season, 354 have come in the range between the rim and 3-point line and he’s shooting 37.7 percent from the mid-range, courtesy of Basketball Reference.

Compare that with efficiency machine James Harden, who has had just 333 shots come from that mid-range area on more than 400 additional attempts.

Those numbers have led to Batum shooting a career-low field goal percentage, currently at 39.9 percent. It’s a pock mark on Batum’s otherwise remarkable season, as he’s averaging career highs in points, assists and free-throw attempts per game.

So why do so many of Batum’s shots come from that mid-range area as basketball gets smarter and the 3-ball is emphasized more than ever? It’s because of where and how Nic likes to attack.

Batum’s most-common weapon is the pick and roll, a commonality that aligns with the Hornets, who are the third-most frequent user of the two-man game among the 30 teams.

Batum has more than a quarter of his possessions as the pick and roll ball handler, yet he only generates 0.61 points per possession out of the action. That’s in the 16th percentile across the league, according to NBA Stats.

Too many times Batum will wait a half-second too long to force the defense into a decision and settle for a no-man’s land jumper the defense is happy to concede.

His plodding drives can be effective when he forces the defense to make a decision, but too often he’ll rise up over the contest and attempt tough fadeaways.

In general, Batum plays so high on both ends and stares a hole into his primary target, resulting in a head-scratching turnover or two per night.

Batum’s other mid-range tool is his post-up game, a sensible step when matched up against smaller defenders. But too often, Batum’s tendency is to hearken back to old tendencies and step back into a tough jumper.

Nic generates 0.79 points per possession out of the post, good for the 23rd percentile in the NBA, per NBA Stats.

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Currently, Batum ranks 50th in ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus for shooting guards out of the 97 in the NBA that qualify, a middling number for a player with his physical capabilities and wingspan.

It doesn’t help when Batum is often forced to play out of position with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as his wing partner and it shows when he’s forced to chase around quicker guards off screens and slither through the ballet of on-ball coverage.

One outstanding facet of Batum’s scoring this year has been his free throws. His career high rate bodes well for the Hornets and him, as he’s a career 85 percent shooter from the charity stripe.

Once he gets a head of steam with those long strides, it’s tough to stop Nic as he has an array of finishes when he gets close to the basket.

The Hornets are 8-6 this season when Batum scores 20 or more points, including Saturday night’s loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, according to Basketball Reference.

Going forward, Batum likely isn’t the 20-point per game scorer many hoped he could turn into, unless he revamps his game to attack the rim more. Many of Batum’s weaknesses offensively were masked last season by the ability off the bounce of Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee.

That’s not to say he can’t enhance his strengths even more, as his playmaking ability has improved. Becoming better in the pick and roll will be paramount, both in attacking to score and finding others.

Just when Buzz City is ready to give up on Batum and call for the front office to move him, he drops a near triple-double to remind you what he’s capable of.

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The path is clear for Batum to continue to improve and refine the edges of a game that is so tantalizing and remains an asset in an era of positionless basketball.