Timberwolves Don’t Miss Zach LaVine

A statistical analysis of the 10 games the Minnesota Timberwolves have played without Zach LaVine.

Zach LaVine was initially diagnosed with a left knee contusion when he went down against the Detroit Pistons on Feb. 3. It wasn’t until the next day that additional testing revealed that he had in fact torn his ACL.

He had subsequent season ending surgery to repair the torn ACL on February 14th. ACL’s are a tricky recovery as every athlete reacts differently to surgery and treatment. The Minnesota Timberwolves may not know if LaVine has fully recovered until two years from now.

LaVine had made impressive leaps in the majority of the shooting categories this season. According to the table below it appears as if LaVine had taken a major step in his development. His two-point field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage are career highs.

Meanwhile, he maintained his three-point shooting percentage while shooting almost three extra three-pointers a game. Typically when your three-point attempts increase your percentage tends to go down. LaVine’s turnovers are also way down this season.

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On the surface, it looks very impressive.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/1/2017.

When we dive into the numbers a little deeper however, they don’t quite pop out at you. Let’s take a look at the table below for example. While LaVine’s shooting percentages are unquestionably up his assist rate has plummeted.

He was averaging HALF of the assist percentage this season when compared to his rookie year. A big reason is that he is no longer being forced to play point guard.

The Timberwolves have accepted him as a shooting guard and he has thrived there since after the All-Star break last season.

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/1/2017.

Zach LaVine’s PER (14.7) is just below average as well. According to the PER measure, LaVine would only fall into your average NBA player category. A lot of fans would be shocked to learn this about a man who averaged 18.3 points this season.

His struggles have come on the defensive side of the ball, not offense. His defensive box plus/ minus is minus-2.3. That is minimally better than his first two seasons in the league.  LaVine also has a defensive rating of 110.1.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The worst-rated guard, Marcus Thornton, has a defensive rating of 114.8.

The Timberwolves’ team defense has appeared to decline without LaVine on the floor.  Before LaVine was lost for the season Minnesota’s team defensive rating was 107.8, ranking 24th in the NBA.

Since they lost LaVine their defensive rating has fallen to 108.8, which would rank 20th in the NBA over that span. The Timberwolves’ opponents effective field goal percentage has also risen in the last 10 games.

However, the game against the Houston Rockets has severely impacted the small sample size. While giving up 142 points to the Rockets, the Timberwolves team defensive rating in that game was 125.1.  Without that game factored into the statistics the numbers would look a lot different.

Only eight times this year have the Timberwolves held their opponents to less than 90 points. Three of those occurrences have come in the last 10 games without LaVine.

To move to the offensive side of the ball tells a different story. The Timberwolves have definitely lacked a third scorer since LaVine went down. Since he has been out only two other Timberwolves players have averaged double digits, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad.

Rubio is averaging 11.2 points while Muhammad is averaging 11 points.

Without LaVine, that third scorer, on the court Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns have thrived. Even more than before. In the last 10 games Wiggins has averaged 30.2 points, 2.7 assists, 2.1 steals and is shooting 52.3 percent from the field.

Towns is averaging 29.1 points and 13.6 rebounds while shooting 60.8 percent from the field. All of those stats are above their season average for both players.

LaVine was also leading the team in minutes played per game at 37.2, which ranked third in the NBA.  Thibodeau brought in Lance Stephenson on a 10-day contract to fill some of that void. He played four games for the Timberwolves before spraining his ankle.

He averaged 12.3 minutes in those four games.

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The biggest beneficiary to LaVine has been Brandon Rush. He has seen his playing time increase by eight minutes a game to 26.8. Although Rush struggled with the extended playing time, shooting only 31.4 percent over that span, he continues to log major minutes.

Tyus Jones has also seen a lot of minutes lately. He has been playing some 2 alongside Rubio at times. He has also been on the court at the same time with Kris Dunn.

Muhammad is the big surprise for me. I would have thought that he would be the next man up for the Timberwolves. His ability to score is sorely needed after LaVine went down. However, his defensive inability must be too much for Thibodeau to overlook.

In conclusion, the numbers definitely give a mix signal of successes and failures.

The final statistic that carries the most weight in this decision is Timberwolves record.  Minnesota has gone 5-5 without LaVine.  If that trend had continued all season the Wolves would currently have a record of 30-30.

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That would leave the Wolves 3.5 games ahead of the Nuggets for the eighth place. In other words, a playoff team.