The Orlando Magic need to decide if Elfrid Payton is their point guard of the future or if they should think about drafting one this summer.
Right now the Orlando Magic are 20-33 and their season has flamed out in underwhelming fashion.
Despite the unpredictable nature of the Eastern Conference, meaning they are still one winning streak away from playoff contention, it doesn’t feel like this is going to happen.
Throw in the ever-growing rumors regarding the future of Serge Ibaka and it feels like some of the insecurities of the past are rearing their heads again.
While the season hasn’t gone to plan, there is the consolation of an upcoming lottery pick in this summer’s NBA Draft.
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It’s not where the team wanted to be, but considering the 2017 class has been touted as one of the better crops of youngsters in years, it could be a blessing in disguise.
It’s still too early to think about which players the Magic should take a serious look at.
However, it would help if the organization was to come to a clear agreement on what type of player they should be drafting.
This is a tricky question to answer, because it is not a straightforward one. It is also likely the team would not like a project player, favoring instant impact if they could get it.
The optimistic fan can point to the fact that the Magic have beaten the system before, to land the first overall pick in consecutive years in 1992 and 1993.
The current lottery odds have Orlando most likely to be picking sixth. Back to what kind of player the team should draft, though, and a guard would seem the most logical choice.
They have two established big men in Nikola Vucevic and Bismack Biyombo, while Aaron Gordon is looking like he could be the future of this team.
Orlando Magic
Evan Fournier was paid last summer and when healthy, he is this team’s best offensive player.
But if he’s your best player, are you really in a position to challenge for a playoff spot? That debate is for another day, but as of now it’s clear the Magic trust him.
Which leaves Elfrid Payton, the point guard who is showing real improvement this season.
Fans have certainly warmed to his style of play and ever-expanding game away from the basket, and on some nights he can look elite.
But it just may be that he is the odd man out come draft night and the team will then have a dilemma on their hands.
As it stands, backups Jodie Meeks (when healthy) and D.J. Augustin have done a great job of being the role players the Magic wanted them to be.
Meeks is shooting 40 percent from three-point range and has an effective field goal percentage of 52.4 percent.
Augustin accounts for more than 23 percent of all assists when on the floor and the offensive output never trails off when he enters a game.
Both complement Payton because they do some of the things that he can’t, while he is the better passer of the bunch.
But if the Magic were to fall down the standings and pick even earlier on draft night, wouldn’t they be foolish to overlook both Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball as their guard of the future?
We are not here to talk about how impressive both players look, as there are still guys who may emerge between now and the summer.
But most are in agreement that one of the two will be the top pick in the draft. Depending on the needs of other teams picking ahead of the Magic, the other may be left on the board longer than expected.
It comes down to what a roster needs against the best player available when you’re drafting and in both scenarios, it makes sense that the Magic would pick a guard.
Also Elfrid Payton is becoming my favorite player. He always gives his all.
— Deb #HollandGangGang (@debswim2010) January 28, 2017
Victor Oladipo didn’t really work out and, in fact, the team has struck out on multiple picks in recent years.
Their draft selection could also be moved to acquire some talent, although this is an avenue that would seem to have less appeal.
Again, Magic fans like Payton and believe in his abilities and they’d hate it if he came back to haunt them (something Oladipo could someday do as well).
This might seem like a question not worth entertaining right now, but the reality is the end of the regular season is on the horizon.
This team might as well go into tank mode, play their younger players and try and figure out how to make this team be more competitive next season.
That can include turning the team over properly to Payton, who is averaging career highs in points (12.5), free throw percentage (still a poor 65 percent) and effective field goal percentage (48 percent).
https://twitter.com/OrlandoMagic/status/826967482833498113
But he has tailed off in other areas, particularly around his playmaking, and this should be looked at in depth when considering drafting a guard.
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His 5.8 assists a night are a career low, while his rebounding (3.9) and three point percentage (27.5, although he’s shooting a lot more than before) are both down.
This despite taking more shots per game (11.3 to the 10 of last season) and having a career high usage rate when on the court (21.9).
His Player Efficiency Rating may have hit a career high (15.8), but that’s not nearly as impressive when you consider that he’s only reaching the league average with that number.
Another area of concern is with his offensive and defensive plus-minus numbers, which stand at 0.0 and 0.2 respectively.
In other words, he’s essentially breaking even in both areas when on the court, not harming the team in any way, but not making them any better either.
Ultimately it is the lack of real improvements after three years in the league that may make the Orlando Magic look at drafting a point guard this summer.
Certainly Victor Oladipo was only given three years to make something happen with the team, and he had averaged 17.9 points and 4.1 assists with the Magic.
Elfrid Payton is turning into a very good basketball player, and after nearly three seasons it is great to see.
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But will it be enough to convince the Magic to not pick a point guard in a draft that looks to have at least two special talents at that position?