Denver Nuggets: Is Nikola Jokic Already A Superstar?
By Aaron Mah
While the hype for Nikola Jokic is finally taking shape, his impact on the Denver Nuggets’ midseason turnaround may still be larger than you think.
My mama always told me to never judge a book by its cover.
But, as human beings we have an inherent tendency to do so, even when forewarned. We are attracted to certain people with certain features, and contrarily, are afraid of certain people who represent a certain image.
When NBA players first took their respective glances at Nikola Jokic, however, I’m pretty sure he did not strike fear into anyone particular’s hearts.
Yes, he’s a giant of a human being — standing at 6’11” tall and paired with a wingspan that spans across 7’3″ wide — but, off of his appearance alone, he comes off as your generic seven-foot stiff.
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To be more specific, he runs like a former fat guy who forgot he lost all that weight, and you’d be hard-pressed to find any resemblance of muscle definition on any part of the young 21-year-old Serbian’s body.
Yet, when he gets on the court, his plotting nature suddenly evolves into an unstoppable glide. With the ball in his hands, the game is suddenly played perpetually in slow motion, as he dissects opposing defenses with his army of cutters and unique repertoire of guard skills.
The passes he makes are magical, and his contributions in that area have appropriately gone viral.
Although his range extends out to the NBA three-point line, he’s much more comfortable just a couple of steps in. In fact, he is by far one of the best midrange jump-shooters (although, I wouldn’t exactly classify Jokic’s set heaves as jump-shots) in the league this season, nailing an unfathomable 69.0 percent of his shots from 10-16 feet and 48.9 percent of his attempts from 16 feet to the 3-point-line, per Basketball-Reference.
Not just limited to his soft-skills, Jokic is highly-capable of pump-faking and putting the ball on deck, where he can muscle his way to the rim, or dish off a scintillating no-looker to a stationing big or spot-up shooter.
He’s also a terror as a tip-in threat. More so than any other big in the game, Jokic truly has the softest hands. Some of his offensive rebound putbacks are purely a manifestation of his natural feel and touch around the basket.
Such skills put opposing anchors in an extremely precarious position.
Give the Joker space and play the passing lanes, he’ll unleash his J. Press up on him, he’ll put the ball on the deck, wheel-and-deal into the paint, and showcase his soft touch around the rim. You turn your head for a split second, with just the thought of digging on him, he’ll whip a pin-point pass right around you to a cutting teammate.
Simply put, Jokic is unstoppable on offense. And the numbers, as well as his team-play, back such a lofty sentiment.
More explicitly, since Dec. 15 when the Denver Nuggets reinserted Big Yok back into the starting lineup as the team’s lone center, they have gone 11-8, thereby clawing their way back into the Western Conference playoff picture.
During this ongoing stretch, Nikola has put up 20.8 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 5.2 assists a contest while playing only 28.6 minutes per game.
As much hoopla as Joel Embiid has gotten for his insane production, it is hard to fathom why Jokic isn’t receiving the same brand of national recognition for his equally as impressive offensive output.
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Furthermore, he’s ninth in the league in Player Efficiency Rating, eighth in win shares per 48 minutes, sixth in Box Plus-Minus, and 14th in Real Plus-Minus.
By the numbers, he’s already a DeMarcus Cousins-level type superstar. And, when taking into account his impact on winning, where the Nuggets are a +12.4 points per 100 possessions better with Jokic on the floor, he may just already be better than everyone’s favorite misunderstood teddy bear, in Boogie.
Of course, however, there’s the defensive end.
Jokic is by no means a world-beating defensive anchor. And for that, the groundwork for the Embiid hype, who is already an elite two-way big (on a per minute basis), is justified.
But, much like the theme of Nikola Jokic the basketball player, he may not be as bad as he looks.
Yes, he’s slow-footed by nature, and on film, you’ll often find him being at the right place in regards to the initial help, but often failing to recover quick enough to truly protect the rim with his 9’3″ standing reach.
The ability to help the helper, and shuffle from one side of the floor to another to protect the paint, is vital for any modern day anchor.
And by the eye-test, Jokic clearly does not possess the footspeed to replicate such traits. For that reason, by the numbers, opponents generally shoot better than their averages around the rim when Jokic is defending the paint, per NBA.com.
The Nuggets’ defense also generally performs worse with him anchoring the paint, conceding 1.4 points more per 100 possessions when compared to when Jokic is sitting.
However, according to ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus-Minus metric, Nikola is still a net-positive on that end of the floor. In fact, he rates defensively better than the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nerlens Noel and Al Horford this season. At the same token, though, the likes of Kevin Love, Nikola Vucevic, and Marcin Gortat all rate out better in the context of their respective roles.
Truth is, as James Harden has proven this year, when you’re as good as Nikola Jokic is offensively, being a middle-of-the-pack, non-detrimental defender may just be good enough to warrant the superstar tag.
With the merits of team success, otherworldly stats and nightly highlight reels all on his side, Nikola Jokic’s unicorn credentials may still be undersold.