Before we go and prematurely crown the next great NBA prospect, we should collectively recognize the average timeline to greatness has now been elongated.
As we venture past the halfway mark of the 2016-17 NBA season, one of the major storylines spurring the overall dialogue around the association is undoubtedly the riveting, and record-breaking race for the MVP.
In one corner, we have “The Beard” James Harden — the league leader in assists and the engine to the Houston Rockets’ three-point-frenzied and analytically-influenced offense.
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On the other end, we have “The Brodie” himself, Russell Westbrook, who just so happens to be on pace to be the second player ever to average a triple-double.
What’s funny is that if you turn back the clock to 2008, players like Tyreke Evans and O.J. Mayo were seen as the crown guards of their respective draft class.
While ‘Reke was putting up a historical 20-5-5 rookie season and Mayo led all rookies in scoring, Westbrook and Harden both played respectively behind the long-limbed shadows of Kevin Durant.
Such sentiments are hilariously faulty to look back on now nine years later, but the phenomenon has been an ongoing theme in the NBA over the past several seasons.
It seems the day of the instant impact rookie is gone, especially for perimeter players like wings and guards.
Looking at some of the best players dominating the point guard and swingman positions this season, like Isaiah Thomas, Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, and Jimmy Butler (and I could go on and on), the list of superstars are all late-bloomers by traditional measures. More specifically, all of them did not truly “break out” until their fourth season or later.
Sure, once in a while, there comes an NBA-ready go-to player like Blake Griffin, but it has been six years since he made the Western Conference All-Star team as a high-flying rook. We have not seen a perimeter player like Michael Jordan and LeBron James, or even someone like a Vince Carter to a lesser extent, who came in and dominated right from the outset for an ongoing 10-plus years now.
Maybe this is due to the one-and-done rule, but we’ve seen the aforementioned James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant more than held their own in years past.
More likely, this may be the direct effect of the defensive 3-second rule implemented nearly 13 years ago. Nowadays, a perimeter superstar is playing less in isolation, and has the responsibility of reading and reacting to the backline of defenses more so than ever.
So, as we incessantly debate whether the New Orleans Pelicans made the right choice choosing Buddy Hield over Jamal Murray just three months in into their respective NBA careers, or crowning either Jabari Parker or Andrew Wiggins as the true jewel of the highly-hyped 2014 draft class, just consider the thought that picking Kawhi Leonard over Paul George was once seen as ludicrous just three years ago.
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Ironically, in a contemporary world that craves instant gratification, the continual evolution of modern-day prospects is more conjectural and protracted than ever.