Toronto Raptors: Lucas Nogueira Having A Breakout Season

Lucas Nogueira barely played in his first two seasons for the Toronto Raptors. This year he is averaging career highs across the board despite seemingly steeper competition.

Lucas Nogueira appeared to be an afterthought for the Toronto Raptors entering the 2016-17 season.

Jonas Valanciunas was entering the first year of a $64 million contract extension through the 2019-20 season. Bismack Biyombo left for the Orlando Magic, but Toronto quickly signed Jared Sullinger replace him.

Toronto also drafted Jakob Poeltl with the ninth overall pick to further solidify their center rotation. Nogueira played limited minutes during his first two years in Toronto and looked poised to be buried on the bench for a third consecutive year.

However, Nogueira has been a pleasant surprise for a Raptors team looking to build on last year’s franchise-best record. Nogueira has already played more minutes this season than in his first two years combined.

Despite the increased role, he has been remarkably capable thus far as Toronto’s backup center. His offensive efficiency and ability to protect the rim will be key factors for Toronto as they look to surmount the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Scoring Around the Basket

Lucas Nogueira has been incredibly efficient offensively by not taking any bad shots. He is shooting a blistering 78.3 percent from the floor so far this season by picking his spots.

Only three of his shot attempts so far this season have been from outside of five feet, according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data.

Although 78.3 percent shooting is unsustainable, Nogueira should be able to maintain a very high field goal percentage. He is shooting 81.4 percent from less than five feet this year, an incredible number, but not a massive outlier.

Nogueira shot 71.7 percent from that range last season, according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data. Given that almost all of his attempts are right near the basket, he may finish the season with a field goal percentage in the 65-70 percent range.

An Offensive Team Player

Nogueira’s efficiency on offense has led to a team-high Offensive Rating of 140, according to Basketball-Reference. For reference, Toronto currently leads the league in offensive efficiency with an Offensive Rating of 117.5 points scored per 100 possessions.

Nogueira has played particularly well with Kyle Lowry, who has assisted on 36.1 percent of his baskets this season. Defenses have to respect Lowry’s shooting, leaving Nogueira wide-open rolls to the rim on pick-and-roll plays.

Lowry’s chemistry with Nogueira is a large part of why he has played so well with the Raptors’ bench players.

The five-man unit of Lowry, Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson and Nogueira has blitzed opponents so far this season with an insane 1.35 points per possession, according to nbawowy.com.

That lineup has the best net rating of any lineup in the league with more than 100 minutes played. The three-point shooting ability of the other four players in that lineup gives Nogueira plenty of space to run to the basket and finish at the rim.

Defense: Protecting the Rim

In addition to his incredible offensive efficiency, Lucas Nogueira has improved his defensive play and rim protection. He has averaged 1.8 blocks per game this season. Furthermore, he has nearly doubled his block percentage from 4.4 percent last year to 8.3 percent this year.

He is averaging 6.7 fouls per 100 possessions this season–while that number is still a bit high, it is identical to his rate from last year despite the increase in block percentage.

Although Nogueira does occasionally over-extend himself to hunt for shot blocks, he has been a solid rim protector overall. He is forcing opponents to shoot 4.4 percent below league average on shots taken less than six feet away from the basket, according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data.

Part of this improvement is due to his increased strength. Nogueira is a true 7-footer, but weighed in at just 220 pounds prior to the 2013 draft. He has since gained more than 20 pounds, according to Basketball-Reference.

Nogueira may never be as strong as Dwight Howard or DeMarcus Cousins, but his added weight has helped him to hold his own in the post.

Looking Ahead to Cleveland

After losing to the Cavaliers in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Toronto is hoping to win what looks like an inevitable rematch at this point in the season. Lucas Nogueira only played 29 minutes in last year’s playoff run.

However, his strong start to the season will likely lead to him playing a larger role in the 2016-17 postseason.

Nogueira may be a key factor in facing Cleveland due to the matchup problem he would pose to the Cavaliers. He has a decent height advantage over Tristan Thompson and a significant athletic advantage over Channing Frye.

Nogueira’s ability to protect the rim will also pose problems for the Cavaliers on drives to the rim. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in particular may struggle to score around the basket with Nogueira nearby.

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Lucas Nogueira has been a pleasant surprise for the Raptors so far this season. If he can maintain his offensive efficiency and defensive play around the rim, Toronto might make this year’s Eastern Conference Finals a closer series than anyone expected prior to this season.

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Toronto Raptors: Lucas Nogueira Having Breakout Season

By Nicholas Agar-Johnson | Dec 15, 2016

Lucas Nogueira barely played in his first two seasons for the Toronto Raptors. This year he is averaging career highs across the board despite seemingly steeper competition.

Scoring Around the Basket

An Offensive Team Player

Defense: Protecting the Rim

More from Hoops Habit

Looking Ahead to Cleveland