With the NBA season getting close, it’s time to take a look at what to expect from the teams around the league. Here are three thoughts on the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors.
The Golden State Warriors are coming off the most successful regular season of all time. It would have been the greatest season, no qualifications necessary, if LeBron James had not turned in what is possibly the greatest playoff performance ever.
The Warriors, though, weren’t about to just fade away, not with players like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson forming the deadliest shooting duo in memory. Still, every team has its ups and downs. Here are three thoughts heading into the 2016-17 season.
1. The Obvious: Kevin Durant
Before any discussion can begin, you have to acknowledge Kevin Durant’s decision to join the Golden State Warriors. Durant gives you about 28 points per game at 50 percent shooting, including 38 percent from the three-point line.
His career Player Efficiency Rating is 25.0, which already put him into the field of superstars. In 2015-16, his PER went up to 28. That’s Michael Jordan, peak Shaquille O’Neal, and Wilt Chamberlain territory.
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That is how good Durant was this past year. He’s a better defender than he gets credit for, he pulls down seven to eight rebounds a game, and gives you between four and five assists.
Durant makes a monster offensive system even better, but his defense lets him guard almost anyone on the court. Don’t believe assistant coach Ron Adams’ statement that Durant can guard “all five positions,” because that wouldn’t work well against the big bodied men of the NBA like Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Rudy Gobert or Blake Griffin.
He won’t have to though. If he does, something has gone horribly wrong in Oakland.
2. The Super Starters
There’s no scientific basis for this, but it seemed last year that the super talented, top-heavy teams were able to beat out many of those touting depth. Don’t misunderstand, the Warriors had a great bench last year.
Top heavy refers to teams like the Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers that were able to keep incredibly talented starting units on the floor for long stretches of time.
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Thompson, Curry, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving all spent about 40 minutes on the floor in Game 7 of the Finals. Except when there was a blowout, the starters regularly spent about that much time on the court during the NBA Finals.
There’s been a lot of emphasis on bench depth in the NBA recently. While it’s still valuable, the teams that win have starters that can stay on the court for long stretches in the playoffs. Kevin Durant actually led in minutes for the entire postseason, at 40.3 minutes per game.
The Warriors are being joined by a guy who can stay on the floor for long stretches and produce, much like Curry and Thompson. Bench depth is good. In the playoffs, having a consistently productive starting unit that can stay on the floor for a long stretch is better.
3. So What’s The Downside?
The problem with a thin bench isn’t what happens in the postseason. The problem is how it grinds down a team throughout the regular season leading into the postseason. Starters are more easily able to pick up their minutes in the playoffs if they haven’t had to grind out 40 minutes per game during the regular season.
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The Warriors’ starting unit is clear, with Curry, Thompson, Draymond Green, Durant and Zaza Pachulia forming a formidable team. The bench remains somewhat intact, with Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingstone.
Any weaknesses for the 2016-17 Warriors are in the big man department. Zaza isn’t much of a scorer, but he was putting in about nine points per game last year. West is past his prime and won’t do better than Zaza in the scoring department. Anderson Varejao is much the same.
The center position doesn’t have to be heavy in point production for the Warriors considering their roster. However, in terms of defense and rebounding, it could be a problem outside of Zaza. Nobody they now have is as good as Andrew Bogut was.
Big, physical teams could out-muscle the relatively small lineup of the Golden State Warriors. On the offensive end, the big men of the Warriors could give up a lot of points in the paint.
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Of course, no team is perfect, and the quibbles with the Warriors’ roster are minor ones. This is a team that seems destined for another Finals appearance, regardless of who they trot out at center.