Toronto Raptors: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Three Key Storylines: 3. Fighting Regression

To be perfectly honest, the Raptors are about as likely to regress in 2016-17 as they are to take another surprising step forward. Coming off a 56-win season and a conference finals appearance, it’d be very easy to fall short of that same kind of success this year.

The Celtics could be a legitimate threat to Toronto’s standing as second-best in the East after adding Al Horford. Lowry and DeRozan struggled to prove to anyone that they truly exorcised their playoff demons during a very shaky run to the conference finals, and JV’s inconsistent role on offense really limits his ceiling on a backcourt-heavy team.

That backcourt is the Raptors’ greatest source of strength, but Lowry is now 30 years old. Even in a contract year, isn’t it reasonable to expect him to take a slight step back after averaging 21.2 points, 6.4 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game in a career year? After all, Lowry has become notorious for running out of steam late in the season and his subsequent playoff duds.

DeRozan is still only 27, but his defensive woes and continuing lack of a three-point shot limit how effective he can be. He’s basically a less efficient, less dynamic version of James Harden at this point, with nearly one-third of his points coming from the foul line and his defense weighing the team down on the other end.

In a career-best season, DeRozan put up 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. After earning that massive pay day and with all the good vibes surrounding this team, isn’t it possible Toronto takes a step back this year? It’s hard to stay motivated when the fan base is just happy to be there.

Barring Valanciunas and Norman Powell making the leap, DeMarre Carroll unexpectedly transforming this team into contenders, or a blockbuster trade from Ujiri, it’s entirely possible the Raptors’ star backcourt won’t be enough to prevent regression in an improving Eastern Conference.

Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios