Minnesota Timberwolves: Does Ricky Rubio Still Have A Job?

With an exciting young core now in place, does Ricky Rubio still have a place on this up and coming Minnesota Timberwolves team?

There’s no doubting that this is an exciting time to be a Minnesota Timberwolves fan. In fact, the roster hasn’t looked this promising since a young Kevin Garnett was coming through.

There are many reasons for excitement in the coming years, and they begin with big man Karl-Anthony Towns.

He recently came out on top of an NBA.com poll which asked General Managers which one player they would sign and build their team around, given the chance.

It doesn’t end there however, as the team also boasts young studs like Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. They even have some depth with the underrated Gorgui Dieng on their team.

With all this positivity and the near certainty of good times and playoff appearances ahead, there is just one question that needs to be answered, and soon.

That is, what exactly should the team do with point guard Ricky Rubio? Or to be more specific, is his time with the Timberwolves almost up?

Even scarier for him is the thought that the league as a whole may have actually moved on from his unique skill set. Although he’s not the only one who may be left behind.

It’s strange to think now, but at one time the Timberwolves thought of Rubio as their point guard of the future.

A long-term knee injury in 2012 stopped that (Rubio tore his ACL against the Los Angeles Lakers), and when he returned from that setback, the team had already started to move on.

So too had the league, going from one that valued point guards who knew how to get their teammates going, to one that looked for star guards who could distribute, score and shoot threes.

The reality is that the deficiencies Rubio had when he joined the Timberwolves in 2011 still exist now, despite the fact the NBA has gone in a different direction.

They are also the reason he likely doesn’t have a future with this team, and may be difficult for the Timberwolves to move.

His inability to put the ball in the basket, and improve on this at all, is the key reason behind his fall from grace.

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In his defense, Rubio does possess some of the best passing in the league, and he’s never averaged fewer than seven assists in a season.

His career average of 8.3 per game is right around that of another pass-first guard, Rajon Rondo (8.7).

Rondo has had himself quite the career to date, but he also came along five years before Rubio, when the league appreciated his skills more.

Rubio has ranked in the top 10 in assists every year of his career so far (except for 2014-15 when he didn’t qualify as he was reduced to 22 games because of injury).

Since 2012 he’s ranked sixth (2012), tenth (2013), fifth (2014), did not qualify (2015) and sixth (2016). The year he did not qualify, he had a career high with 8.8 per game.

This shows that had he made the cut, it’s likely he would have again ranked in the top 10. For his career, he’s been responsible for just under 40 percent of all assists for his team when he’s on the floor.

Clearly, his elite passing isn’t enough to paper over the well-documented cracks in his game, but he brings other positives as well.

Rubio posted a Player Efficiency Rating of 17.6 last season, a career high. Detractors will point to the fact he was playing with better players, but Rubio upped his game as well.

His offensive and defensive plus/minus numbers for his career are both positive (0.5 and 0.9 respectfully) while he posted the highest win share number of his career last season too (.119).

His shooting is everybody’s main gripe, but last season he shot 32.6 percent from long range, the second-best mark of his career.

Rubio also had an effective field goal percentage of 42.7 percent, another career high. Those numbers are deceiving once you’ve seen him play and try and shoot the ball, though.

But is it also fair to say that, entering the sixth year of his career, he’s finally figuring things out and deserves to hold onto the starter spot this season?

Maybe, but that inability to score himself means defenders can sag off him and apply more pressure to Wiggins or Towns.

Rubio has never averaged more than 11 points in a season, and his shooting form and decision making is amateur even to casual fans.

But what if the offensive set-up in Minnesota was also partially to blame here? A cursory look at the pace which the Timberwolves played at last season had them at 97.6.

That’s just below the league average (98.2), and shows that the Timberwolves like to play at a more controlled tempo than other teams.

This is understandable, as it takes time for the likes of Towns to establish position down in the low post.

Rubio’s skill set counteracts that style, rather than reflecting it. 39 percent of all his shots came within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock (per the good people at 82games.com).

Of those, a staggering 80 percent were jump shots, with the other 19 percent coming around the basket.

The Timberwolves ranked fifth in assists per game as well (17.8) which suggests a healthy blend of fast breaks (led by Rubio) from them each night.

So if you’ve got a point guard who typically shoots early in the shot clock, and on four out of five of those occasions he’s taking jump shots (his worst attribute), is that really the key to success?

When the players around him are trying to get to their spots, and Rubio is taking the ball down the court and shooting early, that is not a good recipe for success.

However, when he passes to others, as we’ve seen, the offense becomes a much smoother machine. But really it seems like a clash of styles here, and one which will probably not end well for Rubio.

In clutch situations (less than five minutes left in fourth quarter or overtime with neither team up by more than five) those numbers didn’t get any better.

https://twitter.com/TwolvesArmyRu/status/787313199272095744

Instead, Rubio’s shot selection got worse, as 91 percent of his attempts were jump shots, with 33 percent of them coming within the first 10 seconds of the possession.

That style of play just will not work for this team, especially given Rubio’s offensive output and the players he’ll be playing alongside.

You could argue that he’s now the third or fourth scoring option for his team every night, and that as long as he’s providing assists and being an adequate defender that he can survive.

But if the Timberwolves want to be contenders one day, and with these young players that should be the goal, is having a player at the most important position on the court with those sort of glaring deficiencies what you want?

Does this mean that Ricky Rubio’s career with the Minnesota Timberwolves is almost over? It doesn’t bode well for him, especially if rumors linking him with a move to the Sacramento Kings persist.

Really though the Timberwolves are in a better place now, and they look to have their young core in place. Adding Kris Dunn would also seem to suggest Rubio is available.

Ask yourself this — if you had a chance to give up your starting point guard for Ricky Rubio, would you do it?