Boston Celtics: Can Avery Bradley Be Defensive Player Of The Year?

Can Avery Bradley ever come close to winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award?

Few skills in the NBA today are valued more than defending well. If you can shoot the three-point shot dependably as well, all the better.

Although not a known marksman, Avery Bradley of the Boston Celtics certainly falls into that first category. In a era of flashy, offensively amazing guards, Bradley sticks out because he prides himself on defending these players well.

So he should, as it’s something he’s known for around the league. For a blue collar fan base like the one that exists in Boston, they love that attitude.

But is his style of play enough for him to enter the conversation as a serious contender to win the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) award this coming season?

Certainly he’s got the reputation, and he made the All-Defensive first team last season for the first time.

But a lot of things need to go right in order for Bradley to be considered. Let’s take a look at the potential stumbling blocks he faces, and if he’s got the ability to overcome them.

Firstly though, the positives. It’s hard to believe, but Bradley is still only 25 years old. It feels like he’s been around longer than that, so right away he’s got experience on his side.

More than that though, he blends it well with the fact that in theory he hasn’t even entered his prime yet. He can also count defensive stalwarts Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett as former teammates too.

Bradley is a pest, a combination of the in your face attitude that Patrick Beverley brings, and the high basketball IQ of Tony Allen.

He’s better than neither Beverley or Allen in each area, but he does enough right when it comes to both to be a threat every night.

Which brings us onto the first of a, admittedly long, list of reasons Bradley will struggle to ever come close to winning that award.

If Allen has never taken the DPOY trophy home, what chance does Bradley have? At his height, Allen posted a defensive box score plus/minus of 3.7 (2014-15 season).

For comparison, when Gary Payton won the award in 1995-96, he did so with a defensive plus/minus rating of 1.4.

This shows us a couple of things, one of which is just how difficult it is for a guard to win the DPOY (Payton was the last one to do so).

It also highlights the fact that the focus has shifted from traditional big men winning the award (Dwight Howard three times, Marcus Camby, Tyson Chandler & Joakim Noah in the last decade) to do it all forwards.

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Kawhi Leonard of the San Antonio Spurs is currently the two time defending DPOY. His skill set and ability to defend both guards and forwards means he is already at an advantage here.

He plays for a contending team, meaning he can shine on a bigger stage. Bradley’s Celtics may make the playoffs, but they’re not quite at the top table yet. That fact will also work against him.

Leonard won the award with a defensive rating of 3.5 and 2.8 respectively over the last two seasons. He also averaged a fantastic 2.3 steals per game in 2014-15.

He’s known for doing as good a job as anybody ever has at keeping LeBron James quiet. He happened to achieve this in the 2014 NBA Finals, taking home MVP honors of that series as well.

Bradley has never come close to being relevant on that stage, and that’s not going to change any time soon either.

Even more surprising however, is how he stacks up statistically to the players mentioned above. Now, figures can be twisted to back up any point in the NBA.

But an inescapable reality is the fact that Bradley has posted a negative defensive plus/minus score in his last three seasons in the league.

These numbers (-1.4, -0.9, -0.3) have been so poor they’ve actually forced his career average in this category to fall to -0.5.

For comparison, James Harden, who famously does not defend, has a career average of -0.1 in the same category. His numbers for the last three seasons make for even better reading than Bradley’s (-0.5, 1.0, -0.4).

Again this is but one statistic in an era when players are put under a microscope in every single facet of their game. Regardless it does not make Bradley’s case any stronger.

Worst of all though, is the fact Bradley may not even be the best defender on his own team. Marcus Smart has emerged as a tough defensive guard himself.

He’s also listed as being two inches taller and nearly 40 pounds heavier than Bradley. His first two years in the league, he’s averaged 1.5 steals per game and a defensive plus/minus of 1.3.

Bradley’s career high in steals came last season and was also 1.5, while the best mark he’s ever posted with his defensive box score is 0.3, and that was five years ago.

The idea of pairing Smart with Isaiah Thomas is an intriguing one for the Celtics as well. Thomas is an All-Star level offensive player, but defensively he gives up so much in height.

Pair him with Smart however, and you can hide him on the weakest offensive player on the opposing team. This combo could work with Bradley as well, but at this moment Smart seems more suited to the role.

That being said, Bradley started 72 of the 76 games he appeared in last season, averaging a career high 33 minutes a night.

He may not be ready to give up his starting berth to Smart just yet, but there’s no doubt the younger guard with the impressive numbers is breathing down his neck.

In the end, it’s clear that there are so many factors working against Avery Bradley in his quest to become the Defensive Player of the Year one day.

His team aren’t at a level where they can showcase his skill set every night, and his numbers aren’t even all that impressive anyway.

A guard hasn’t won the award in more than 20 years now, and in Marcus Smart, he faces competition from within.

Despite all of this however, his future with this rapidly improving team may still be as their best defender.

It will be as a part of their second unit though, where he can shut down opponent’s bench players, adding defensive depth to this Celtics team.