Kevin Durant is about to play for a team boasting a starting backcourt that attempted a combined 37.5 shots per game last season. How exactly do the Golden State Warriors accommodate Durant?
Kevin Durant doesn’t play second fiddle to anyone.
A former four-time scoring champion, Durant has the ninth highest usage rate in NBA history and is third all-time in points per game, behind only Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain.
On paper, that sounds like a high volume scorer.
However, despite establishing himself as the game’s greatest scorer since Jordan, Durant has actually attempted fewer shots per game (19.1) in his career when compared to Elgin Baylor (23.8), Jordan (22.9), Allen Iverson (21.8), Jerry West (20.4), Dominique Wilkins (20.1), LeBron James (19.7) Carmelo Anthony (19.6), Kobe Bryant (19.5) and a host of other all-time great gunners.
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Durant’s immaculate efficiency, highlighted by his career True Shooting percentage (.604), has helped him remain more productive than aforementioned scorers even while jacking up fewer shots.
If the 2013-14 MVP has been on the court for 50,000 possessions through his college and pro career, it’s safe to assume that coaches called his name on at least half of those plays. Durant has always garnered that kind of attention.
And even players of a historic 73-win team, who are superstars in their own right, are willing to give him that kind of attention. At the end of Thursday’s training camp session, Durant revealed that Draymond Green urged the superstar forward to shoot more and be more aggressive.
Kevin Durant: Keeping it simple
Seeing as the Golden State Warriors offense is already a thing of beauty, all Durant needs to do is be himself.
Though the popular perception is that most plays are run for Stephen Curry, the read-and-react element of its playbook goes against the concept of running plays for one particular player.
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If Curry or Green aren’t bringing the ball up the floor, players on the court are moving without the ball, setting unorthodox screens away from the ball-handler and creating open looks for each other.
Though Curry had the second highest usage rate (35.2 percent) last season, the reigning MVP averaged 7.2 points per game off catch-and-shoot field goals, an indicator that he moved soundly off the ball and came off screens to shoot the basketball.
In comparison, Durant scored 5.8 points per game off catch-and-shoot field goals, which includes 1.5 made threes. In the same time frame, Curry made an average of 2.2 threes and Klay Thompson sunk a league-high 3.0 threes per game off catch-and-shoot shots from the perimeter.
Expect Durant, the Warrior, to make a lot more buckets off catch-and-shoot plays.
Unless it’s a playoff situation when coaches tend to design plays in the clutch, Durant realizes that he’d be playing a lot more off-the-ball going forward and will rarely have a play run specially for him.
And Durant, who cited Golden State’s unselfish playbook and team-first culture as the primary reason for taking his talents to Oakland, has already acknowledged that there will be days when he’d shoot 25 shots a game and others when he gets a mere seven looks.
To some, Durant is making sacrifices. But the man himself realizes that he just needs to play his natural game and let the spread-out floor and efficient offense dictate proceedings.
"“That’s why they wanted me here! They want me to come out here and be myself. I’m not going to play timid or not step on anyone’s toes, but I’m still going to be myself. Nobody’s telling me I’m shooting too much. They want me to be myself out there.”"
Replacing Harrison Barnes…
Essentially, Durant is replacing Harrison Barnes in the starting unit. The only difference is Barnes attempted 9.6 shots per game and Durant would likely average nearly double the shots per game.
Where are those additional eight shots coming from, though?
Let’s say Curry’s shot attempts reduce from 20.2 to 18.0 and Thompson’s shot attempts reduce from 17.3 to 16.0. That’s 3.5 shots right there.
Let’s say Green’s shot attempts reduce from 10.1 per game to 8.0 per game. So that’s an additional 5.6 shots per game for Durant.
To try and ball park it, Splash Triplets Durant, Curry and Thompson could all be averaging around 17 shots per game and get 20+ looks on nights when they’ve got the hot hand.
For the neutral viewer, it’s going to make for spectacular basketball!
Durant, the playmaker
Durant’s game would basically evolve from more of an ISO player to a three-and-D player.
Mind you, Durant, who averaged a career-high 5.5 assists per game during his MVP season, won’t be restricted to just a shooter. He’s an underrated playmaker and defensive stopper, and would likely make a ton of plays from the top of the key, freeing up Green to set off-the-ball screens for Curry and Thompson.
Since Durant doesn’t have the versatility to play a small-ball center, expect him to be a crucial playmaker in small-ball units, especially if he starts to push the ball up in transition.
Just notice the following play in which Curry dribble-penetrates his way to the rim, passes the ball back to Green on the perimeter and frees himself for an open catch-and-shoot three.
This is not the typical Warriors play that involves a bunch of screens, but it’s exactly the type of play that Durant should thrive off of, whether he plays the ball-handler role or the top-of-the-key passer. His ball-handling and passing skills are above average.
These are the type skills which Barnes didn’t possess. He was strictly a spot-up shooter. Durant’s natural instincts to score the basketball can’t be curbed, and they really shouldn’t.
"“My thing is, impose my will by scoring when we need it. I could do the other things, but I’m highlighted by my scoring and how efficient I can put the ball in the basket and try to search out good shots for our group.”"
Durant really has no reason to take a backseat to anyone. He’s Kevin Durant!
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But the 28-year-old is preparing to have the most fun he’s ever had on a basketball court. In conclusion, here’s a statistical prediction for Kevin Durant’s 2016-17 season:
Points per game: 24.5 (lowest since rookie year)
Rebounds per game: 7.5
Assists per game: 4.8
Field goal percentage: .520 (career-high)
3-Pt field goal percentage: .430 (career-high)