Miami Heat: Justise Winslow’s Time Is Now

Despite having a rough summer, Justise Winslow is about to come to the rescue of the Miami Heat and break out in a big way this season.

Unfortunately for the Miami Heat, this has not been a good summer. They saw their best player ever, Dwyane Wade, leave for his hometown Chicago Bulls in free agency.

The team failed to land any free agents of note, though they did ink center Hassan Whiteside to a long-term deal. Goran Dragic remains on the roster as well.

The team suffered another blow recently, however, when president Pat Riley seemed to indicate that the franchise would be moving on without Chris Bosh.

Undoubtedly their best player right now, blood clots have forced Bosh off the court for large parts of the last two seasons.

Clearly then, this is a team that is in need of a boost. After all, two of their notable summer signings were Dion Waiters and Derrick Williams.

January 13, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul Pierce (34) moves the ball against Miami Heat forward Justise Winslow (20) during the first half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

While this is undoubtedly Whiteside’s team now, one player who will step up for them in a big way is Justise Winslow. Still only 20 years old, he had a humbling rookie season last year.

Heralded as one of the best prospects in the 2015 NBA Draft, Winslow fell as low as the 10th pick, where he was gratefully selected by a Heat team that at the time looked to be a long-term playoff regular.

But as it is with many rookies, the NCAA championship winner struggled for a variety of reasons, playing just over 28 minutes a night and appearing in 78 games. He started eight of those.

He averaged 6.4 points and 5.2 rebounds a night, but the true value of his game was seen on the defensive end of the ball.

https://twitter.com/Heat_Reddit/status/779151180538621952

Full disclosure, Winslow was my favorite player in that draft. He has so much potential to be a terrifying two-way player, but landing with the Heat meant it would be difficult to get touches and minutes right away.

Fortunately for Winslow, a situation has arisen where two of the team’s three best players have departed in one summer, and only adequate replacements were brought in.

This means the team will have to improve from within, and this will be where Winslow gets his chance. He should even be a starter for the team this coming season.

Returning to why he will be so important, it’s clear his defensive ability that will likely see him on the court at crunch time.

Last season, the Heat allowed opponents to make just over 34 percent of their three-point efforts against them each night (league average 35.4).

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With Winslow’s athleticism, that number may fall again this coming season. The team also allowed opponents to make 77.2 percent of their free throws on any given night.

That was below the league average of 75.6 percent, and in fact only three teams were worse in this area (Detroit, New Orleans and Philadelphia).

There’s no doubting Winslow can help in this category as well, just by being on the court. He is a smart defender already, and he’s got the numbers to back that up.

Last year, while still a teenager, he posted a defensive box score plus/minus of 1.6. That number seems impressive for a rookie, especially as it seems to take even the best defenders in the league time to adapt.

Comparing that to other defenders of note, however, makes that score look even better. Here are the defensive plus/minus numbers for some other notable defenders in recent league history during their rookie campaigns:

Tony Allen (0.6), Paul George (1.2), Trevor Ariza (0.7), Matt Barnes (-0.2), Luol Deng (1.8) and Wade (0.4).

(Wade was added more to see how he stacks up against the greatest player Miami has ever known. Obviously defending was never what Wade was on the court to do predominately.)

Justise Winslow wants his own team one day, developing into role with Heat https://t.co/g0ZtPPbJeQ
— Kurt Helin (@basketballtalk) September 29, 2016

But for Heat fans it must be somewhat comforting to know that as a rookie, Winslow was doing something better than Wade was.

Looking at the above numbers though, and it makes for great reading for Winslow. His score seemed impressive enough on it’s own, but compared to the guys above it bodes well for his future.

It’s not even a million miles away from Kawhi Leonard‘s rookie year (a brilliant 2.3), and he is the best lockdown defender in the NBA today. It’s clear then that Winslow will make a living on that side of the ball.

If he could add a consistent three-point shot however, he’d become one of the elite wingmen in the league. That is not to say that he has to add the three-pointer to be a success in the NBA.

But “3-and-D” wingmen are among the most sought after players today. This is because they can give a team some of the most important elements of modern basketball (three-point shooting and high level defending) at the same time.

These guys also get paid as well, so it would be wise of Winslow to try and improve in this area. That wouldn’t appear to be too difficult a task either, as he shot only 27.6 percent from long range last year.

Again there’s reason for optimism here as well, as that number was still better than some of the players already named during their rookie years, such as Barnes (15.4 percent), Deng (26.5 percent) and Ariza (23.1 percent).

Of those three players alone, think of how important they’ve been to contending teams down through the years. In their defense though, the league wasn’t as three-point orientated as it is now either.

But it’s still another positive for Winslow, who has the chance to be the next Kawhi Leonard if he takes the next step in year two of his career.

Indeed, having nearly as many points as rebounds last season shows that the willingness to work hard is already there. It is now just a matter of continuing to improve on the defensive end, while adding to his offensive skill set.

The Miami Heat will have some tough moments this coming season. They may not even make the playoffs. But in Justise Winslow, they have a young player who will drive this team defensively every night.

Next: NBA Predictions: 2016-17 Win Projections For All 30 Teams

Coupled with Hassan Whiteside and some figures that would suggest he can only improve in key areas, he will make the Heat a scary defensive team. He may also be the best thing about them.