What Jared Sullinger Can Bring To The Toronto Raptors
By Justin Rowan
The Toronto Raptors have a talented but flawed player in Jared Sullinger. What he brings to the table, however, far outweighs any downside for the Raptors.
There were no earth-shattering move for the Toronto Raptors this past summer. Despite an expressed desire to try and land a star, the right deal did not materialize.
As a result of that, general manager Masai Ujiri elected to take the same approach that he has over the last few seasons: count on internal growth, as well as acquire bargain free agency finds that can make a difference.
In the past, players like Tyler Hansbrough, Luis Scola and Bismack Biyombo have been examples of the latter half of that strategy. The Raptors have banked on players like them excelling when placed next to their core. Despite the flaws of each player, they found a way to make an impact for the team. But unlike signings of the past, the addition of Jared Sullinger is one that carries far more upside.
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In college Sullinger was regarded as one of the best players of his draft class, although questions surrounding the health of his back as well as his weight caused him to slip to the 21st overall pick.
Conditioning has long been a concern for Sullinger. Two years ago the Celtics had asked Sullinger to drop down to 260-265 pounds before the season, yet he showed up to camp 20 pounds overweight. During the season things didn’t get much better, as he ballooned to over 300 pounds.
His close friend John Lucas blasted Sullinger’s work ethic and cited his weight issues as the reason the Celtics let him go this summer:
"“Jared still hasn’t figured out who he wants to be, and when he does, he’s going to take off,” Lucas said. “He’s still fighting anybody and everybody about who knows best. He’ll give in to a point, but he won’t… let… go. And if he’d ever just let go and accept what people are telling him, I think he can be great.“I love his talent. I haven’t seen a lot of guys with his talent. He’s really highly talented. He’s got three-point range. He played well. But I think the Celtics were concerned about his weight all year.”"
The good news for the Raptors is that being let go from the Celtics may have served as a wakeup call. The news coming out of media day is that Sullinger is down to 260 pounds.
Jared Sullinger is down to 260 lbs. I'm starting to get excited for this acquisition
— William Lou (@william_lou) September 29, 2016
Sullinger reducing his weight is a very good sign for the Raptors. Despite his large frame, he wasn’t a reliable post-up threat last season. His points per possession on post-ups was 0.82, which ranked in the 47th percentile for NBA players.
Increased mobility and condition should help him function better in space, as well as in the post. His offensive touch is one of his greatest gifts as a player. But the lack of conditioning leads to him looking clumsy and lost at times, particularity in the post.
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The increased mobility should also help him on the defensive end of the floor. Opponents shot 1.6 percent worse than their expected field goal percentage inside the three point arc last season, per NBA.com. However, the inability to get out to three-point shooters was a glaring defensive weakness.
Opponents shot 7.9 percent better than their usual three-point percentage from three with Sullinger as the closest defender. Sullinger was also in the 30th percentile in pick-and-roll defense. The consistent area of defensive weakness is that he struggled in space and getting out to shooters. While it would be unreasonable to expect him to become a defensive stopper, better conditioning should help him improve.
The important context when evaluating how Sullinger will help Toronto is the player he is replacing. Luis Scola was a defensive disaster for the Raptors last season. His pick-and-roll defense was in the 16th percentile, worse than Sullinger. While opponents only shot 6.9 percent better from three against him, they also shot 1.9 percent better from two. So for the first time in his life, Sullinger can be viewed as a defensive upgrade.
The upgrade on defense pales in comparison to the upgrade in other areas of the game. Sullinger ranked 20th in the NBA in rebound rate last season. He is particularly strong on the defensive glass, where he pulls in 27 percent of available boards. While other areas of his defensive game require work, the ability to secure stops with defensive rebounds is an important trait to possess. Last season Scola’s defensive rebound rate of 19 percent was 95th among players, compared to Sullinger at 18.
The Raptors are gaining a physical presence that can provide them with toughness that they’ve lacked. Also a player that has burned them in the past:
While the team is banking on Sullinger’s best basketball being ahead of him, the player he was in the past would still be a useful addition.
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It’s the type of gamble that Ujiri has made in the past, and if it pays off, could help the team take another step forward towards being a contender.