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Dallas Mavericks: 2016-17 Season Outlook

By Gerald Bourguet

Mar 20, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) celebrates with teammates after scoring a three point basket in overtime against the Portland Trail Blazers at American Airlines Center. The Mavs beat the Trail Blazers 132-120. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 20, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) celebrates with teammates after scoring a three point basket in overtime against the Portland Trail Blazers at American Airlines Center. The Mavs beat the Trail Blazers 132-120. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dallas Mavericks
Apr 21, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki (41) looks at the replay screen during the second half against the Oklahoma City Thunder in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at American Airlines Center. The Thunder defeated the Mavericks 131-102. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

Best-Case Scenario

Dirk shows no sign of decline once again in 2016-17, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews stay healthy and the Mavericks quickly jell to punish the league with another high-powered offense and a overwhelmingly versatile defense.

Harrison Barnes flourishes in his first season of increased responsibility, becoming a borderline 20 points per game scorer and multifaceted defender. Justin Anderson improves his three-point shot and takes the next step toward being a lockdown defender.

Dallas unleashes a terrifying small-ball unit of Matthews-Anderson-Barnes, with Bogut, Mejri or Hammons occupying the center spot whenever Dirk’s not up to the challenge. The Mavericks win 48 games, secure the fifth seed in the West and draw on their experience and defense to pull off a first round playoff upset before bowing out in the second round.

Worst-Case Scenario

Nowitzki’s game finally starts to drop off, especially with the arrival of Barnes providing him something of an out from the responsibility he’s shouldered for so long. Unfortunately for him and the Mavs, Barnes largely struggles with all that added pressure, barely elevating his scoring totals as his efficiency dives off a cliff.

Without so many open looks served on a silver platter, Barnes undergoes a brutal learning curve and his confidence wavers like never before. Matthews, D-Will and Bogut all struggle to stay healthy, leaving Carlisle with even fewer options to extract miracles out of than ever before.

Seth Curry shows why the only substantial run he’s ever gotten in the NBA came with the Kings, the defense never comes together and Dwight Powell fails to live up to his gaudy contract extension. The Mavs win around 35 games and miss the playoffs.

Next: Predictions

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