Dallas Mavericks: 2016-17 Season Outlook

Three Key Storylines: 3. Does Dirk + Rick + Role Players Still = Playoffs?

Ever since Carlisle took over the head coaching job in 2008-09, the general formula of Dirk Nowitzki plus Rick Carlisle plus glue guys has almost always equalled playoffs for the Mavs. But with Dirk another year older and the West still being the West, will that be the case again in 2016-17?

At this point in time, it’s hard to doubt Dallas’ track record. Even last year, when some expected the Mavs to be an under-the-radar tanking team because D-Will, Matthews and Parsons were all coming off summer surgeries, the Mavs wound up winning 42 games to secure the sixth seed in the West.

It’ll probably take more than that to lock up the sixth seed this season, with the Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves, Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans all either getting better, getting healthy, or staying relatively the same.

However, Las Vegas’ over/under of 39.5 wins seems far too low for a team that won 42 games last year, added more defense to a similar core over the summer, and has been good for a .500 record or better in every single season since 2000-01.

At some point, Dirk Nowitzki’s game will fall off and he’ll become virtually unplayable. But after averaging a team-leading 18.3 points per game last season, that point has not yet arrived, and even if that moment rears its ugly head in 2016-17, Carlisle still has enough potential on this roster to squeeze another playoff appearance out of this group.

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