Milwaukee Bucks: Jabari Parker Poised For A Breakout Season

The Khris Middleton injury will increase the load expected from the rest of the Milwaukee Bucks roster. For Jabari Parker, it’s a chance to establish himself as a star.

Heading into the 2014 draft, it wasn’t a forgone conclusion that Andrew Wiggins would go first overall. Joel Embiid had a claim to the top spot, prior to getting injured once again. After that, the debate came down to Andrew Wiggins against Jabari Parker.

While Wiggins may have had the better start to his career, Parker still has a chance to establish himself as the best player in his draft class.

With the injury to Khris Middleton, the Milwaukee Bucks have a lot of offensive touches that are currently unaccounted for. Per NBA.com, Middleton touched the ball 56.6 times per game last season.

That number was third on the team behind Michael Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo. There’s no denying that the injury will limit the amount of team success the Bucks will have this season. But with a team full of young talent, it does present them with an opportunity for growth.

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When you look at the upcoming season, an increased role for Antetokounmpo is an inevitability. The 6’11” Swiss army knife has a new four-year, $100 million extension. But after him, a sizable portion of the load will likely be handled by Jabari Parker.

Parker’s career got off to a rocky start when an ACL tear ended his rookie campaign after 25 games. Upon returning from injury, things didn’t go much better for Parker. Working his way back to into shape, he averaged 11.3 points and 4.7 rebounds per game before the All-Star break.

It was after the break that the league got the first real glimpse of his enormous potential. He averaged 18.9 points and 6.1 rebounds while his true shooting percentage increased from 52.5 to 54.7. He also shot 32.1 percent from three.

While it only came on 28 attempts, it’s a good starting point for him as he attempts to extend his range.

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It’s unlikely that Parker ever develops a consistent three point shot. But if he can get it to the point where defenses are forced to respect it, it’ll open up other aspects of his game. It’s easy to point to the increased touches for Parker as the reason for why he will have a breakout season.

While his counting stats are sure to increase, there are a few key areas where he needs to improve; not just to assist in improved numbers, but in meaningful growth that will allow him to take the next step towards becoming an All-Star.

The first area of improvement is on the defensive end of the floor. The opposition shot 4.6 percent better than their expected field goal percentage with Parker as the closest defender. Overall the opposition scored 2.6 points more per 100 possessions with Parker on the court.

This effectively negated his positive impact on the offensive end of the court, where the team scored two points more per 100 possessions with him on the court. Coming off his ACL tear, it’s fair to expect a decrease in foot-speed.

Without any injuries to rehab this summer, Parker should be in the best shape of his life. With the length and athleticism he possesses, he has little excuse to be a complete liability on that end of the floor. He’s still only 21 years old, and it takes young players time to figure out NBA defense.

But it’s important that he starts displaying signs of growth now, rather than remaining stagnant on defense.

The next area where he could improve would be in the pick and roll. Last season Parker only averaged 0.73 points per possession as a roll man, which was in the 10th percentile for NBA players.

Theoretically the pick and roll tandem of Parker and Antetokounmpo should be tough to contend with. Both players are gifted athletically and possess the ability to finish in the paint.

Parker shot 66.1 percent in the paint last season, but for one reason or another that didn’t translate to pick and roll production.

Perhaps improved spacing from Matthew Dellavedova as well as Khris Middleton would have made a difference, but the absence of Middleton hurts that theory.

Either way, there’s no excuse for Parker’s production to be so poor in the pick and roll. Some of the results may be due to working his way back or variance, but turning those numbers around may be a key to him breaking out.

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The addition of a jump-shot would also be a huge asset for Parker. He has consistently shot well from the floor, shooting 49.2 percent for his career.

Cutting down on the long two point shots, where he shot 33.9 percent from 16 feet to the three point line and attacking the basket will help him become even more efficient.

By either taking it to the basket or spotting up from three, Parker will help himself play a more efficient game and play an offensive game that possesses more upside.

We saw what Parker could do last season when given more touches. A breakout season appears to be on the horizon.

Using the extra touches in the right way, as well as focusing on areas where he was deficient in the past will help him graduate from a productive young player, to a potential star in this league.

Next: Milwauikee Bucks: 2016-17 Season Outlook

While the Bucks may not take the jump as a team this season, it’s important that their young cornerstone pieces continue to develop in the right way. Parker is coming, it’s up to him to determine where his ceiling is.