Boston Celtics: Should Marcus Smart Start?

Entering his third year as a professional, does it make sense for Marcus Smart to start for the Boston Celtics in 2016-17?

The Boston Celtics are an intriguing prospect this coming NBA season. They’ve made the playoffs for the last two years, and have done so with only one All-Star level player in Isaiah Thomas.

They added another All-Star this summer in Al Horford, while young players like rookie Jaylen Brown and even Kelly Olynyk intrigue.

Combined with fourth-year head coach Brad Stevens, this truly is a team to watch out for, and they will pick up some notable wins over the course of the season.

They’re not there yet though, and there is likely to be more player movement before they can be considered legitimate title contenders. There will have to be some tinkering from within as well, to find a combination that maximizes the talent of this eclectic bunch.

This is what makes the case for Marcus Smart to become a full-time starter for the Celtics such a divisive one. He’s only 21 years old, and the Celtics already have an All-Star in Thomas at that position.

But he’s a much better defensive player than Thomas can ever be, given the height difference between the two alone (Smart is officially listed as being seven inches taller. That number may still be flattering to Thomas).

It’s easy to think of Smart as the backup point guard given his age and offensive limitations, but it’s also easy to see him as the long-term solution at that position as well.

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Thomas is 26 years old, a one-time All-Star and in theory is just entering his prime. The thought of him running an effective pick-and-roll with Horford is tantalizing. Thomas averaged a career high 22.2 points and 6.2 assists per game last season.

He did so while playing in all 82 games for the Celtics, starting all but three. One train of thought is that if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it. Smart isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, so learning from Thomas, especially on the offensive end, can only be a good thing.

But on the other hand, the trade value of Thomas will likely never be higher. He’s got two years remaining on his contract, so if he were moved now, he would be more than just a rental to another team.

The Celtics could get more proven pieces to put around Horford, and the team desperately needs guys who can space the floor. The Celtics as a team shot 33 percent from three-point territory last year.

That mark put them second last in the NBA, ahead of only the Los Angeles Lakers. Thomas is a career 36 percent shooter from long range.

Last season, the other members of the starting unit were solid, but not spectacular three-point shooters. Amir Johnson (23 percent) was by far the worst, followed by Jared Sullinger (28 percent), Jae Crowder (34 percent) and Avery Bradley (36 percent).

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In today’s NBA, three-point shooting is king. Having those types of players around a guy like Horford would terrify opposing teams every night.

The flip side of this argument to move on from the Thomas era however, is that he is due to make under $14 million over the course of the next two years.

That’s an absolute steal in today’s NBA economy. Is moving a high level player on relatively little money really a smart move?

Another factor Thomas has going for him is that he’s surrounded by high level defenders as it is. Both Crowder and Bradley are known for their tenacity on the court.

Johnson posted a defensive plus/minus score of 3.2 last season, a fabulous number and good for 21st in the entire league. Crowder came in with a respectable 1.3 as well.

While Bradley’s was low in comparison (-0.3) his defensive ability is known league-wide. His numbers may suggest he’s not always an effective defender, but he’s certainly a pest.

So a starting five consisting of Thomas, Horford and three above average defenders makes a lot of sense. They could be an above-average team on both ends of the court.

But by getting rid of Thomas and adding Smart to the starting unit, the Celtics could become a truly elite defensive unit. There would be spacing issues with the lack of shooting, but Horford would remedy some of that.

He shot just over 34 percent from long distance last season, right along his career average. He did so while taking roughly three long range efforts per night. Before last season, he had never attempted more than 0.5 per game.

So we can see that he’s just as comfortable as ever taking long range shots. He’s comfortable in all areas of the pick-and-roll game, and Smart would have the dream partner to execute these kinds of plays with.

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Parting with Thomas would be tough, and again, it’s not like it makes a ton of sense either. But by giving Smart the keys to run the team when expectations are still low, Smart could learn on the job.

By the time the Celtics have reached contender status, Smart would in theory be one of their star performers.

Or else Boston could look to how somebody like Elfrid Payton was given too much, too soon by the Orlando Magic, and decide that Smart should remain a backup for now.

It’s unlikely we’ll see Isaiah Thomas traded by the Boston Celtics before the deadline, but if that ever did happen, Marcus Smart would be able to step up as a starter.

The case to trade Thomas given his current value makes sense at this moment, and adding Smart to that starting five would make the Celtics tough to score on.

But you need stars to win big in the NBA, and the Celtics in theory now have two. Will Thomas ever be an All-Star again? It’s a gamble worth taking, given how much he will make over the next two years.

Or else Thomas could be brought off the bench to provide a scoring punch, as he has with other teams before. Smart will be the starting point guard for the team one day, but could it come as recently as this season?