Dallas Mavericks: Analyzing Dirk Nowitzki’s Future

Dirk Nowitzki will be a member of the Dallas Mavericks for his entire career, but how much longer will he play? He recently dropped a few hints on his future.

There’s no doubt about where Dirk Nowitzki will be for the final few years of his playing time in the NBA. He’s always been a member of the Dallas Mavericks and that’s who he’ll finish his career with.

The question then transitions to just how long he’ll stay in the NBA.

The thought around the league is that he has two more years remaining. After opting out of his contract, he then signed a two-year, $50 million deal in July to remain with the Mavs.

After the deal runs out, Nowitzki will have completed 20 seasons in the NBA and he’ll be close to 40 years of age.

Related Story: 25 Best Players to Play for the Dallas Mavericks

He’s repeatedly stated that “20 years would sound really, really great,” when asked about how much longer he thinks his career will last and this past week, Nowitzki dropped some interesting quotes during a celebrity tennis tournament (via ESPN.com):

"“I always said I wanted to kind of take it year by year,” Nowitzki said Thursday while promoting a celebrity tennis event he will host Sunday at SMU. “But signing a two-year deal doesn’t mean I necessarily have to play those two years.“I think we’ll see how next year goes, how the body responds, and then we’ll make that decision again next year. But obviously, I would love to play the next two years and then just see how it goes.”"

More from Dallas Mavericks

• 3 NBA superstars with legacies on the line heading into 2023–24
• NBA Trades: This Mavs-Nets deal may lead to Dallas adding a third star
• NBA Trades: This Mavericks-Pelicans swap would boost Dallas’ frontline
• Ranking the 4 riskiest boom-or-bust NBA teams in 2023–24
• 5 NBA players facing do-or-die 2023–2024 seasons

This could be taken a few different ways. Nowitzki obviously leaves the door open for retirement after the 2016-17 season when he talks about not necessarily having “to play those two years.”

Then he talks about the plan that seems to be most likely: playing two years before calling it a career. But after that he mentions that he’ll “see how it goes” after his contract expires, meaning he could possibly play past his current contract.

Obviously his decision will be based on how healthy he is and how his body does throughout the season, but I think another big part could be just how competitive the team is.

Mark Cuban and the rest of the front office has gone out of their way to ensure that the Mavs have at least stayed in the hunt for the playoffs each year since the championship in 2011.

This summer was setting up for disaster, but the signing of Harrison Barnes and the trade for Andrew Bogut seemed to please Nowitzki and has him ready for the upcoming season.

Another thing to consider is what milestones he’ll be reaching in the coming seasons. With 29,491 points, he’s set to make it 30,000 in 2016-17. Along with that, he could potentially pass Wilt Chamberlain (31,419) for fifth on the all-time scoring list.

The past two seasons have seen Nowitzki score around 1,300 points and with him trailing Chamberlain by roughly 2,000 points, he would likely surpass the legend in 2017-18.

But even with some very impressive milestones and records in his future, Nowitzki has said in the past that those things aren’t what keeps him in the NBA (via SportsDay):

"“That’s not something that inspires me to keep going,” he said. “When it’s done, it’s done. I’m not going to say, ‘It’s not fun anymore and the body’s not holding up, but I got to play one more year to reach this.’ I won’t be dragging myself just to chase more records. That’s not what I stand for. We’ll just see how the next couple years go and then I’ll know when it’s done.”"

If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Nowitzki throughout his illustrious career, it’s that he won’t let success or fame get to his head. He’s going to do what he needs to do to help the team.

We’ve recently seen a couple of NBA legends retire as Kobe Bryant (20 seasons) and Tim Duncan (19 seasons) both finished off Hall of Fame careers in 2015-16.

But Nowitzki has a much different situation at the moment. Bryant was still the one true star on the Los Angeles Lakers, but his team wasn’t competitive for the final few seasons of his career.

Duncan, on the other hand, played for a contender each and every season with the San Antonio Spurs, but he was occupying a much smaller role on the team.

Nowitzki is playing on a team that is halfway between both of those. The Mavs certainly aren’t contenders for the championship, but they are a playoff team and aren’t in any way a team resting near the bottom of the Western Conference.

Also, Nowitzki still carries the main load at 38 years old. He will likely still have the highest scoring average on the team this season and he’ll be the obvious leader until he retires.

That’s something that is rare for a player of that age.

While his production has gone down in the past few seasons, his scoring average hasn’t dipped below 17.3 points per game since his rookie year. Nowitzki is in a position to walk away from the game as one of the best power forwards in history and still one of the top-5 in the current NBA.

While it seems like he is destined to play two more seasons in the NBA, nothing is guaranteed, and he’ll likely opt to take a route like Tim Duncan and announce his retirement during the offseason and almost unexpectedly.

Must Read: Mavs' Three-Point Shooting Set To Improve Next Season

The bottom line is that we don’t have much more time to enjoy the greatness that Nowitzki brings to the league. Let’s cherish every moment we do have and enjoy the final years of a legendary career.