Charlotte Hornets: A Summer Of Change
The Charlotte Hornets underwent some significant changes this offseason. What will those changes mean for their chances in 2016-17?
The Charlotte Hornets knew the summer of the 2016 was going to bring significant change. Jeremy Lin, Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams, Nicolas Batum and Al Jefferson all played the 2015-16 season on expiring contracts and there was never going to be enough money to bring them all back.
The Hornets did what they had to do this offseason. They prioritized certain players and made tough decisions about who to let go. The first domino to fall was Nicolas Batum. Batum was their No. 1 priority from the start, so they made sure to lock him up as quickly as possible. Charlotte signed Batum to a five-year $120 million contract that will keep the Frenchman in the Queen City through the 2020-21 season.
Shelling out big dollars for Batum meant they did not enough cash left to bring back Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and Courtney Lee. Lin took his talents to the Brooklyn Nets, Jefferson signed with the Indiana Pacers, and Lee will head to Madison Square Garden to join the New York Knicks.
After a brief flirtation with Brooklyn, Marvin Williams also returned to Charlotte. The stretch-4 signed a four-year $54.5 million deal that will keep him a Hornet through the 2019-20 season.
Losing Lin, Lee and even Jefferson will hurt, but the Hornets are undoubtedly bringing back their two most important free agents. Batum acts as the primary creator on offense, which helped Kemba Walker have the most efficient season of his career. They could not afford to let him go.
Williams proved to be a versatile defender that could guard on the perimeter and in the post. His 40.2 percent shooting percentage from the three-point line was also huge for their spacing. All five players contributed to their 48-win season, but Williams and Batum were clearly the irreplaceable pieces of the puzzle.
To fill the holes on the roster, general manager Rich Cho and the rest of the front office had to get creative. To replace Lee they acquired Marco Belinelli from the Sacremento Kings to bring shooting off the bench.
The drop-off from Lee to Belinelli should be rather significant. Last season Lee shot 39.2 percent from three-point range and often guarded the other team’s best perimeter scorer. Belinelli is not going to do that. He’s coming off of a season in which he shot 38.6 percent from the field and 30.6 percent from outside. He’s never been much of a defender, so Charlotte will have to hope his shooting returns to form otherwise it might be tough for him to stay in the rotation.
Ramon Sessions was signed to replace Lin. Sessions isn’t the creator or scorer that Lin is, but he’s been a reliable backup most of his career. Brian Roberts was also signed to shore up the point guard depth.
Neither of these players will come close to providing what Lin provided. Lin’s 11.7 points per game led Charlotte’s second unit and his ability to step up his performance against big-time opponents led to some memorable moments and important victories — not to mention Lin had become a fan favorite in Charlotte.
The most interesting signing of the offseason may have been Roy Hibbert. It seems crazy to think about it now, but three years ago Hibbert was considered one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference.
In 2013-14 he made the All-Star team and helped lead the Indiana Pacers to back-to-back Eastern Conference Finals appearances. He was even viewed as something of a “LeBron stopper” thanks to his rim protecting dominance on the defensive end.
The small-ball revolution in the NBA seems to have severely impacted Hibbert’s value as a basketball player. His rim protecting isn’t as important in a world where centers and power forwards hang out around the perimeter and fire up three-pointers.
Hibbert hopes Charlotte will do for him what it did for Jeremy Lin. If he can use this opportunity with the Hornets to establish his value as a defensive difference-maker perhaps next season he’ll be able to take advantage of the rising salary cap and sign a long-term deal with a team in need of a new starting center.
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Swarm and Sting
After all the changes, the Hornets should be left with a starting five of Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller. With Kidd-Gilchrist on the floor last season, Charlotte’s offensive rating jumped from 107.2 to 114 while their defensive rating improved to 98.3 compared to 105 without him. That came in only a 205-minute sample, but it’s still encouraging. His return to the lineup may be the only thing that helps offset the loss of Lin and Lee on the perimeter.
Ramon Sessions, Jeremy Lamb, Marco Belinelli, Frank Kaminsky, and Roy Hibbert will likely make up the rest of the rotation.
On paper this is slightly worse than last season, especially the second unit. Losing Courtney Lee’s defense and shooting hurts, as does losing Jeremy Lin’s scoring and playmaking off the bench. Steve Clifford will have to carefully stagger minutes for Walker and Batum so that lineups completely comprised of bench players aren’t on the floor for large periods of time.
If Kemba Walker builds on his career best season, if Nicolas Batum remains a creative floor-stretching No. 2 scoring option, and if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist remains healthy then they have a chance of equaling last season’s 48 wins.
If one or all of those players struggle the Hornets might be in for a serious regression. The Hornets still have a talented core, but they can no longer beat teams with depth. Whether or not that causes them to miss the playoffs next season remains to be season.
I’d still peg them as the seventh or eighth seed in a competitive Eastern Conference, but with several teams lurking to knock them off it will be tough to replicate last season’s success.
More Hornets: Charlotte Hornets Offseason Grades
Change isn’t easy and neither is the NBA. So it goes.