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Olympics: Can Serbia’s “Big Four” Shock the World And Win Gold Medal?

By Matthew Medley

Aug 19, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; The Serbia bench reacts in the game against Australia during the men's basketball semifinals in the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 19, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; The Serbia bench reacts in the game against Australia during the men's basketball semifinals in the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 19, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; The Serbia bench celebrates beating Australia during the men’s basketball semifinals in the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 19, 2016; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; The Serbia bench celebrates beating Australia during the men’s basketball semifinals in the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games at Carioca Arena 1. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY Sports /

Can Serbia Shock The World?

Keeping all of this in mind, as great as Serbia’s “Big Four” is, and despite how hard the group plays or how much chemistry the team has together, it’s no secret that the U.S. is the clear-cut favorite.

Team USA is more talented, more athletic, deeper, and loaded with superstars at every position. Serbia’s stars all need to play at a high level for the team to have a shot.

What’s encouraging from a Serbian standpoint is that the team was within three points in the preliminary round meeting and that was without receiving a great game from Bogdanovic.

It’s reasonable to expect the U.S. to play with more intensity in the gold medal game, in part because of the significance and magnitude of the event, but also because perhaps Team USA respects Serbia more after a close game and will not take its opponent lightly.

By the same token, Team USA has only two players who appeared in the Olympics prior to Rio: Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant. Although those two know what it takes and have been in this situation before, it’s still somewhat of a mystery as to how the other 10 players will perform.

It’s not necessarily an advantage for Serbia, though. The Serbs are young and have not played in an Olympic tournament together prior to Rio, either.

What Serbia does have is more team chemistry and experience from international tournaments and spending more time on the practice court together. This same core group of players won the silver medal in the 2014 FIBA World Cup, interestingly enough losing to the U.S. by 37 points.

Some would say because that game was a blowout, the U.S. should easily cruise in the gold medal game, but there are a wide array of factors that would dispute that argument.

For starters, the only players currently on Team USA’s roster who played in that game are Irving, Cousins, Thompson, and DeMar DeRozan. The rest of the players from Team USA’s dominant World Cup victory either chose not to play in Rio, missed the Olympics due to injury, or were not invited to the team.

Serbia, on the other hand, has nine of 12 players who were on the court in that 2014 World Cup final still on its roster.

Three of Serbia’s “Big Four” were on the national team in that blowout. Jokic did not play in that 2014 meeting, but was 19 years old at the time, and two years later, he is coming off an impressive rookie campaign with the Denver Nuggets.

Bogdanovic was only 22 years old at the time and has two more years of experience under his belt, but it’s worth pointing out that the same could be said for Irving of Team USA. The growth of Bogdanovic and the addition of Jokic make this Serbian team much better than the one that fell in the FIBA World Cup final.

Serbia’s team continuity grew again in the 2015 FIBA Eurobasket tournament, where they went 7-2, finishing in fourth place. Seven of Serbia’s 12 current members were on that team, including three of the Big Four.

The team also gained valuable experience together in the 2016 FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament, where Serbia dominated its opposition, sweeping four games, winning three of those contests by at least 15 points.

One final factor that could benefit Serbia coming into this gold medal game is that the team is relatively well-rested from the dominant win over Australia. If the semifinal match against Australia would have gone down to the wire, some might cite issues of fatigue or being worn-down heading into the final.

Since the Serbs pulled off such a landslide victory, its stars did not have to play much in the second half and there should be no worries of the team being “out of gas” when it takes on the U.S. It may not change the outcome, but it’s certainly a better position to be in than if the team’s stars had each played 35 minutes on Friday.

To clarify, none of this means that Serbia is the favorite. American fans are justifiably confident that their team could win gold in blowout fashion. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that may be the case on Sunday.

Team USA is playing its best basketball of the tournament. It may have worked out some of the kinks. Maybe it’s simply a matter of “flipping the switch” and playing with 100 percent energy on both ends from start to finish.

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However, Serbia’s talented group should not be overlooked or disrespected. Team USA’s coaching staff and players know that, but if Serbia pulls off the upset, it’s not as though there weren’t signs to show that it was possible.