Orlando Magic: 2016 Offseason Grades

The Ibaka Trade

With the 11th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Magic had a chance to add another lottery talent to a young nucleus that already featured three consecutive lotto picks in Oladipo, Aaron Gordon and Mario Hezonja (and four if you include the draft-day trade for Elfrid Payton).

But instead of adding to that collection, Orlando’s summer strategy — one that’s on the same page with management’s desperate focus of getting back to the playoffs — was revealed.

In a package that included one former lottery pick (Oladipo), one current lottery pick (Domantas Sabonis) and one veteran stretch-4 (Ersan Ilyasova), the Magic were able to trade for Serge Ibaka of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The younger, high-upside assets are clearly on OKC’s side of the deal. Oladipo still feels like a moldable ball of clay even after a disappointing 2015-16 campaign, especially since Scott Skiles yanking him in and out of the starting rotation didn’t help matters. Sabonis is a versatile big like his father and could become a nice player in this league.

To be fair to the Magic, they moved closer to their endgame of making the playoffs with this trade. Ibaka is one of the game’s best floor-spacers at the power forward spot, he can play the 5 in small-ball lineups and his defensive instincts and shot-blocking prowess are well-documented.

However, given what Orlando had to surrender in this trade, this feels like an overpay on the Magic’s part. Ibaka is in his prime and will only turn 27 in September, but how much better will he get, realistically? After all, his numbers have steadily declined over the last three seasons:

• 2013-14:  15.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.7 BPG, 53.6 FG%, 38.3 3P%
• 2014-15:  14.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 47.6 FG%, 37.6 3P%
• 2015-16:  12.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.9 BPG, 47.9 FG%, 32.6 3P%

Part of that has to do with how much depth OKC added to its frontcourt, but can Ibaka snap back into one of the roster’s most important two-way players on such a young team?

Though Oladipo struggled to find his footing last season while vacillating between a starting job and sixth man duty, his “underwhelming” numbers — 16.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.6 SPG, 43.8 FG%, 34.8 3P% — may have just been a case of right player, wrong coach.

Oladipo will also make $5.8 million less than Ibaka next season, he’s younger and as a restricted free agent, he would’ve been easier to re-sign than an unrestricted agent like Ibaka. In fact, Ibaka may just wind up being a one-year rental if the 2016-17 campaign isn’t a stunning success.

Furthermore, as much as Ibaka might have a resurgent year and provide Orlando with some needed perimeter shooting and interior D, there’s also the small issue of bringing on a starting-caliber 4 when Aaron Gordon — perhaps the most promising piece left of Orlando’s young core — is best suited for that spot.

Ibaka makes the Magic better for 2016-17 and in theory, will fit well in Frank Vogel’s highly vaunted defense alongside Nikola Vucevic (or, ideally, alongside Gordon as a small-ball 5). The Magic also own his Bird Rights, which means they can offer him the most money next summer in free agency.

But Orlando won’t improve by leaps and bounds because of this trade, and even with management’s impatient agenda of returning to the playoffs, the question needs to be asked: At what cost?

Grade: C-

Next: Adding Augustin