Orlando Magic: Will Serge Ibaka Dominate?

He’s about to become the Orlando Magic’s go-to guy, but is Serge Ibaka up for the challenge of leading this team back to the playoffs?

While the Orlando Magic have had an up and down summer, one move they did make that brought real quality to their team was add forward Serge Ibaka.

They gave up Victor Oladipo and some other pieces to get their man, but there’s no doubting he’ll be the key figure for the Magic next season.

Although the fact he could leave as an unrestricted free agent next summer is a worry, the important thing is making the most of Ibaka’s talents for as long as he is a member of the team.

He is after all the kind of player who fits the model of the new NBA we exist in, one where bigs are moving further and further away from the rim to be effective. Ibaka can do just that, he is a career 35.5 percent three point shooter.

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But in moving to the supposedly weaker Eastern conference, will Ibaka actually dominate? Can he clearly become the best player on this team, while also possibly getting his first All-Star nod? Is he going to be everything his new team needs him to be?

On paper this seems a real possibility, the situation Ibaka finds himself in has been set up to get the most out of his skill set. This should excite Magic fans. In Elfrid Payton, Ibaka has a pass-first point guard who will get him the ball both inside the paint and out.

Combine that with Bismack Biyombo, a monstrous rim protector but minimal offensive threat, and it’s easy to see why Ibaka can average nearly 20 points a night (his career high:15.1).

With the Oklahoma City Thunder, Ibaka’s primary job was to protect the rim, as well as hitting open jumpers while both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were heavily guarded.

With Biyombo behind him, Ibaka will be free to show us what he can do when the offense plays through him. He is a great defensive player himself, and so sticking him beside center Nikola Vucevic will create it’s own wacky mismatch problems for opponents.

In fact, it’s tough to see any scenario developing where Ibaka isn’t a success with his new team. He has spoken before about wanting to have a bigger role with a team. This Magic team is crying out for a leader, so there’s no question Ibaka is now the man here.

He is also entering a contract year, and given that his new employers haven’t been to the playoffs in four seasons now, the scene is set perfectly for Ibaka to have a career year.

What better way to put yourself in line for a big payday with all of the money saturating the league than by helping a hapless organization back on it’s feet and into the postseason once more.

It feels like Ibaka has been around a long time, but he is still only 26 years old. That’s the perfect blend of youth (he likely still hasn’t entered his prime) while also being battle tested with some long playoff runs with the Thunder.

In fact, Ibaka has been to the playoffs every season bar one in his seven year career. This is a guy who knows how to win big, even if he’s yet to win a championship. With the exception of unrestricted free agency looming, this surely ranks as the Magic’s best move in years?

All signs are pointing towards this, and yet there is still reason to be cautious. It’s obvious to point out, but Ibaka has always played with two All-Stars in Durant and Westbrook. Hitting jump shots is easier when you play with two of the top five guys in the league.

If he had an off night, his inefficiencies were masked by the heroics of his teammates as well. This is not to take anything away from Ibaka’s game and who he is, but it does need to be mentioned. He wanted more responsibility, he will now have to cope with the expectations that come with it.

Returning to his three-point shooting; while it’s been consistent for much of his career, it has been dipping. The 32.6 percent posted last season was by far a career low and well down from his last two years (37.6 and 38.3 percent respectively).

What makes Ibaka so dangerous is his ability to stretch the floor while also being a dominant rim protector. If he’s not keeping defenders honest with his shooting, it won’t free up the lane for Payton and Biyombo the way the Magic would have hoped. That’s a problem.

His 12.6 points per game last season was his lowest average in four years, while his 6.8 rebounds were the lowest since his rookie year (5.4). Looking at falling numbers like that you would assume Ibaka was playing for a team whose season was over by the All-Star break.

In fact he was trying to help the Thunder win a championship. Those numbers didn’t even return to normal during the playoffs either (averages of 12 points and 6.3 rebounds per game).

Although, the three point shooting was at a much improved 44 percent during their run to the conference finals. For the first time since his rookie season, Ibaka also posted a box score +/- of minus-0.1.

This is only slightly below average. But with previous highs of 2.4 and 3.0 in this category, it represents a worrying fall from grace, and that was with the help of Durant and Westbrook.

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Two other areas of concern with handing over the keys to Ibaka lie in his player efficiency rating (PER) and also his offensive efficiency and output. Both need to be addressed and monitored going forward.

Ibaka posted a PER of 13.9 last season, with the league average being 15. This is the lowest mark of his career, coming in well under his career average (17.5) and even below his rookie campaign (15.2) when the best word to describe him back then was raw.

His offensive +/- number of minus-1.1 wasn’t great either, but that should not come as any great surprise. Ibaka has posted a negative number in this category every year except one (plus-0.2 in 2012-13).

So while Ibaka was an important part of a contending team for over half a decade, he wasn’t always the most positive influence. But playing with two All-Stars (and James Harden for a period) will gloss over that fact.

Should Orlando Magic fans be excited by the prospect of Serge Ibaka? Without question, he is going to be successful for their organization. On the surface he will be playing with the kind of guys who will fit with his style of play better than anybody in Oklahoma ever did.

This is especially true as he enters a career year and hopes to cement his place as a top five player in the league in his position.

But if you dig below the surface, things begin to get a little murky. There will be some memorable performances from the forward, but you can also expect some terrible shooting nights and poor stretches where he tries too hard and takes away from the other players on this team.

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The Serge Ibaka era will be an exciting, although possibly short-lived one. It will bring moderate success and some big stat lines. Beyond that, his inefficiencies may be hard to hide.