Denver Nuggets: Youth And Depth Key To Success In 2016
The Denver Nuggets won 33 games last season. Can they take the leap and make the playoffs in 2016?
With all of the talk about Kevin Durant and how the Golden State Warriors will fare next season, the more intriguing part of the Western Conference stands at the bottom of the playoff picture.
The Dallas Mavericks struck out on a star, landing Golden State scraps Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. The New Orleans Pelicans opted for defense, picking up several smaller pieces around Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday.
States over, the Houston Rockets opted for offense, hiring Mike D’Antoni as the team’s next head coach and taking Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson to team with James Harden. We’ve already assumed Minnesota is that team to take the leap, thanks to Tom Thibodeau and Karl-Anthony Towns.
But the team that looks the most intriguing is the Denver Nuggets.
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Two seasons ago, the Nuggets were a mess. Several veteran players were injured, younger players didn’t stand out — and were injured — and Brian Shaw was mindlessly shuffling through another season as head coach. Shaw proved that he wasn’t the answer, the roster looked discombobulated and the Nuggets were in the midst of a downward spiral as they won just 30 games.
Last season wasn’t a huge improvement — the Nuggets won just 33 games — but the positives were there. Mike Malone, unceremoniously canned 24 games into the 2014-15 season in Sacramento, came to Denver and balanced it out. He worked well with the veterans on the roster, he worked and expressed hope in the rookies and ultimately proved to be a positive for Denver.
This season, Malone’s balance, combined with some better injury luck, might be able to turn them into a playoff team.
For starters, no team in the bottom of the Western Conference has as much depth as Denver. It’s part of their success in acquiring draft picks over the last two years, combined with some of the pieces they plucked in trades.
From larger trades, like Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler from the Carmelo Anthony blockbuster, to smaller trades, like a modest Kosta Koufos-for-Darrell Arthur swap, Denver has plucked some nice pieces out of negotiations.
However, this team will go as far as their star player will take them. That player? Second-year big man Nikola Jokic. No would look at Jokic’s per game stats – 10.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, but Jokic’s per 36 numbers — 16.5 points, 11.6 rebounds, and 3.9 assists — were that of a star.
Jokic showed the ability to defend the rim and even shot 33 percent on 84 total attempts from downtown. Finishing ninth in ESPN’s real plus-minus statistic shows that Jokic’s value is more than meets the eye.
Oh, and Jokic is making $1.3 million next season and a hair under $5 million over the next three seasons.
After Jokic, the backcourt comes into play. The trio of Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, and rookie Jamal Murray will be a key part in Denver’s elevation up the conference standings.
After an unimpressive rookie season, Harris made strides as a sophomore, increasing his true shooting percentage by 17 percent and becoming a dangerous cutter, finishing on 64 percent of his plays off the ball. His 12.7 Player Efficiency Rating suggests that he doesn’t do much outside of scoring, but he made positive strides and should continue to blossom into a fine overall player.
Can Mudiay make those same strides in his second season? Just 19 last season, Mudiay flashed some positives as a creator, but his inability to shoot the ball hindered him and his future prospects.
Mudiay shot 36 percent from the floor last season and 31 percent from three. He figured something out post-All-Star Break (36 percent from three), but he can Mudiay put that together for an entire season?
It’ll be that, plus his physical tools on defense — he went from a -3.3 net rating in the first half of the season, to a -2.1 net rating after the break, with three months of net neutral play — that will determine his second-year status.
The man in the middle is their 2016 first round pick. Murray is a bit of both players combined. He’ll be able to light up a scoreboard with his ability to finish at the rim and knock down threes with ease. He’s also a creative playmaker, capable of shuffling and creating for teammates without elite athleticism.
In short, he makes some sense with both players in the backcourt. Alongside Harris, he can maintain some level of creation in the backcourt. With Mudiay on the floor, Murray can space the floor and make up for some of Mudiay’s negative spacing.
The top of the Western Conference feels secure. The Warriors at the top, San Antonio is fighting off Father Time to finish in second place and the Los Angeles Clippers, for what seems like the eighth season in a row, bring back the core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. I envision those three, plus the Oklahoma City Thunder and Utah Jazz to be in that picture.
More hoops habit: Denver Nuggets: 2016 Offseason Grades
The bottom, however, looks interesting. Several teams pushed chips in to make next season one that extends into May. The Minnesota Timberwolves seem to be the team people see as a sleeper, but my vote is going to the Nuggets, who’ll need to lean on the development of their younger players and injury luck to rise in the Western Conference.