James Harden Primed For Monster Season
James Harden is already one of the NBA’s best players, but under Mike D’Antoni, he could put up numbers that are absurd.
After a breakthrough 2014-15 campaign in which James Harden finished second to Stephen Curry in the NBA MVP race (and being named MVP by by the NBPA that season), 2015-16 seemed like a down year for the Houston Rockets’ bearded combo guard.
Harden failed to land a spot on any of the three All-NBA Teams and saw his team implode under raised expectations after leading the Rockets to the Western Conference Finals a year before. The Rockets struggled out of the gate and fired coach Kevin McHale after a 4-7 start to the season.
Under interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff, the Rockets stumbled to the eighth seed in the playoffs before the Warriors put an end to their misery in the first round.
Harden received most of the blame for his team’s failure to meet expectations. For all of his offensive skills, Harden became synonymous with a lack of effort, specifically on the defensive end.
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Like Harden himself, I will not even defend his lack of defensive focus.
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The argument that his defense really impaired the Rockets is obvious. Harden ranked 50th among qualifying shooting guards in
the Rockets ranked
, and the Rockets were horrendous at transition defense, a skill that is more hustle and intensity than anything else.
Harden’s Achilles’ heel is his defense. It’s hard to talk about Harden without mentioning just how reprehensible his defense was last year.
With that said, Harden still had an outstanding year statistically, a year better than his season as an MVP candidate.
2014-15: 27.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 7.0 assists. 44.0 FG%, 37.5 3P%.
2015-16: 29.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.5 assists. 43.9 FG%, 35.9 3P%.
That’s right. Harden’s numbers actually improved last year in comparison to his season as a strong MVP candidate.
The only other players in NBA history who have averaged at least 29 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game in NBA history are Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James.
Harden matched numbers that only three of the greatest players in NBA history have obtained in a season and couldn’t muster an appearance on any of the All-NBA teams.
Now, statistics aren’t everything. That’s why Harden failed to make an All-NBA team over players that he was statistically superior to.
But Harden’s historic numbers last year would appear to only get better in this upcoming season under Mike D’Antoni, known for innovating the modern NBA offense and for his breakneck pace.
Under D’Antoni and his high-paced offense, players have a history of seeing their numbers increase.
This is no coincidence. D’Antoni’s “pace-and-space” offense gives his team more offensive possessions and puts players in space, where they’re in better situation to create scoring opportunities.
One of Bill Simmons’ readers once even coined the phrase “D’Inflation” to explain the phenomenon of increased numbers under D’Antoni.
“D’Inflation” specifically occurs for point guards, who are tasked with handling the ball through pick-and-rolls and spotting out the shooters who collapse in help defense.
Notable instances of “D’Inflation”
Steve Nash
Season before D’Antoni: 14.5 points, 8.8 assists per game.
Fist season with D’Antoni: 15.5 points, 11.5 assists per game.
Raymond Felton
Season before D’Antoni: 12.1 points, 5.6 assists per game.
First season with D’Antoni: 17.1 points, 9.0 assists per game.
Kendall Marshall
Season before D’Antoni: 3.0 points, 3.0 assists per game
First season with D’Antoni: 8.0 points, 8.8 assists per game.
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Jeremy Lin
Season before D’Antoni: 2.6 points, 1.4 assists per game.
First season with D’Antoni: 14.6 points, 6.2 assists per game.
Some of the increases are undoubtedly due to increased minutes, but none of these point guards enjoyed the statistical success they had with D’Antoni before or after their time spent with him.
Other players like Landry Fields, Steve Blake, Jordan Hill, Nick Young and Steve Blakehave seen their numbers rise past what they’d been capable of doing in the year before or after playing for D’Antoni.
All of this makes the possibilities for Harden endless, just ask D’Antoni himself.
While speaking with Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical on a podcast, D’Antoni stated that he’d like to see how Harden works as his primary ball-handler and playmaker, while setting some wild expectations for Harden:
"“He averaged 7 or 8 assists last year. I would love to see 12 or 13.”"
Nobody since John Stockton in 1994-95 has averaged 12 assists or more in a season. In the history of the NBA, only Stockton, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Porter, Kevin Johnson, and Magic Johnson have averaged 12 or more assists per game.
Even with D’Antoni, Nash never got to the assists numbers he’d like to see Harden get.
We shouldn’t pencil in 12 or 13 assists per game next year, but the goals are high for Harden for next season.
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But under D’Antoni, we can expect Harden to put up numbers you only see in video games.