2016 NBA Finals: 5 Things To Know Heading Into Game 7
1. No One Knows What To Expect
Heading into Game 7, the predictions will be running wild. The Golden State Warriors have history on their side, the Cleveland Cavaliers have momentum going for them. But don’t make the mistake of buying into any one narrative, because contrary to popular belief, nobody has any idea what the hell to expect in Sunday’s decisive contest.
For the Dubs, there are plenty of reasons to feel confident. For starters, no team in NBA Finals history has ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win it all, with those teams going 0-32. The only two teams to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-1 in the Finals both lost Game 7s on the road. The home team is 15-3 all-time in NBA Finals Game 7s and oh, there’s this too:
Recent history is kind to the Warriors as well. They’ve gone 50-4 in 2015-16 at Oracle Arena where Game 7 will be played, and one of those losses came in Game 5 of this series — a game played without Draymond Green.
Green has to be pissed after failing to have a big game following his costly suspension. Klay should be pissed about another mediocre shooting performance and dropping back-to-back games.
Most of all, the league MVP should be pissed about the way his Game 6 was cut short, not to mention the $25,000 fine and LeBron’s tone-setting block that clearly left an impact.
The Dubs were handed just their second losing streak of the 2015-16 campaign in Game 6, and they haven’t lost three consecutive games since Mark Jackson was in charge. The chips are down, and none of that history matters if LeBron comes out and drops another 40-bomb on the Dubs.
But we have literally never seen a team win 73 games before, and we have never seen a Finals team regroup from a 3-1 deficit. There’s a reason for that: It’s really effing hard to do.
Dating back to 1950, the team that won fewer regular season games than its Finals opponent has won the title only 16 times. The largest discrepancy between regular season wins that’s ever been overcome in the Finals was 12 games — ironically enough, a feat achieved by the 1975 Golden State Warriors, who won 48 games and beat a 60-win Washington Bullets team.
If LeBron and his Cavs come all the way back from 3-1 down against Team 73-9 -- AND lift Cleveland's Curse -- it should count as two titles
— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) June 17, 2016
During the regular season, the 2015-16 Warriors won 73 games, given them a 16-game separation from the Cavs in the win column, which would be the largest discrepancy ever surmounted in NBA history.
Anything can happen in a do-or-die Game 7, but if you asked any Warriors fan before the season if they’d put the season on the line in one game at Oracle Arena, where they’d be 50-4 heading into that contest, they’d take that in a heartbeat.
Ready for Sunday?
— Richard Yannow (@RichardYannow) June 17, 2016
Highest ppg all-time in Game 7s (min 2 games)
1. Stephen Curry, 34.5 ppg
2. LeBron James, 34.4
3. Michael Jordan, 33.7
That being said, the Cavs have plenty of reason to be confident as well. They’ve won three out of the last four games against the Dubs, and with Tyronn Lue‘s shortened rotation, the Cavs have found sure footing for the first time in the last two years against this team.
LeBron’s superlative play obviously has a lot to do with that, but Kyrie Irving has been excellent as well, somehow beating the Warriors’ top-five defense with iso-ball and averaging 32.0 points and 5.3 assists per game on .526/.480/.941 shooting splits over the last four games.
Tristan Thompson’s dominance on the glass can’t be ignored, nor can the contributions of Richard Jefferson, J.R. Smith and Kevin Love‘s Game 6 foul trouble. The Cavs have done a terrific job turning Warriors misses — looking at you, Harry B — into transition opportunities, and again, LeBron James is a damn locomotive right now.
Iguodala hurting, Barnes lost, still getting zippo from centers...Warriors need some of this to flip in Game 7. Being at home isn't enough.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) June 17, 2016
The Cavs have all the momentum as the team that seems to have figured its opponent out, especially with the Splash Brothers struggling to deliver their normal torrential downpour. Andre Iguodala‘s stiff back/Kyrie Irving’s foot injury could very well be significant factors. No matter who takes Game 7, would it be a surprise to see either team win by double figures?
The Warriors have history, home-court advantage and an overwhelmingly large sample size on their side that tells us they should be favored. The Cavaliers have momentum and a LeBron James.
More hoops habit: Golden State Warriors: 5 Takeaways From Game 6
No one knows what to expect in Game 7, but whether it’s the completion of an all-time great season or the greatest upset in Finals history that brings the first championship to the Land, Sunday’s outcome will provide us with one hell of a storybook ending. Sit back, strap in, and enjoy.