Ben Simmons will assuredly land in the top two selections of the 2016 NBA Draft, and he’s chosen to limit his workouts — which is a mistake.
Knowing that you’re one of the top two players in the upcoming 2016 NBA Draft affords a prospect some stability, knowing that they’re likely going to one of two locations, in this case to the Philadelphia 76ers or Los Angeles Lakers.
With that, it’s understandable that a prospect might balk at working out for other teams who are likely not in the running to draft him. In Ben Simmons case, the 6-foot-10 Australian out of LSU has also not worked out for the 76ers, who hold the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft.
The 76ers camp isn’t panicking, as general manager Bryan Colangelo told NJ.com that Simmons “would very much like to be selected No. 1,” but when asked about any scheduled workout, “as of this moment, not yet, but we are working on it.”
Some outlets believe this is an attempt by Simmons to land at the No. 2 spot, with the Lakers. Many on Twitter agree that the extra workouts and interviews are useless as well:
If Simmons is indeed trying to discourage the 76ers from drafting him so that he can play for the Lakers, he could cause some unintended consequences that may affect the early part of his career, at the very least.
SIXERS LEVERAGE VS. LAKERS
One thing is certain with Simmons — he’s the most talented player in the draft. He’s been compared with Giannis Antetokounmpo (SI), LeBron James (ESPN) and a Lamar Odom/Blake Griffin blend (Bleacher Report).
Take a look at the following video and remember that he’s built like a power forward.
.@BenSimmons25 at 6-10, 240 showing of his handle pic.twitter.com/m0gS7GVwW3
— NBA Big Board (@chadfordinsider) June 1, 2016
The 76ers have never been afraid to draft talent that chose to not workout for them — it’s happened in 2013 (Nerlens Noel), 2014 (Joel Embiid) and 2015 (Jahlil Okafor), albeit not all for the same reasons as Simmons.
As of right now, the 76ers have leverage over the Lakers. If the Lakers believe that the 76ers are going to draft Simmons, they’ll have to trade up from the No. 2 spot in order to do it. Any kind of trade like that is going to have to include a number of picks and talented players. This isn’t any standard prospect — as Jonathan Givony of Draft Express says in his scouting report, referring to Simmons “unquestionably extraordinary” talent level.
RISK VS. REWARD
From Simmons’ standpoint, he knows that he’ll be getting a hefty guaranteed rookie contract and ample opportunity to star no matter where he goes. The huge risk in this case comes from the teams looking to draft him. The 76ers have mortgaged the last three seasons in a feeble attempt to draft a franchise-changing phenom. They haven’t totally struck out on “The Process”, but their last three picks haven’t panned out just yet. There’s no way they’ll let Simmons go for cheap. Nobody wants to be the GM who let the big fish go.
Taking the route that Simmons is — not working out for multiple teams, not outright saying he wants to avoid Philly, but not doing much to debunk the theory — will have an effect. There’s more to these individual workouts than the physical aspect, as there’s an interview and a medical process, which can be just as valuable. As it stands, he’s putting the Sixers in a really tough spot.
If Simmons and his agent are sending vibes (or outright telling them behind closed doors) that he’s not interested in Philadelphia, the 76ers would love nothing more than to have more than one team to deal with. Having competition in deals would only raise the price, ultimately giving the 76ers enough of a return that they could live with it.
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Instead, the 76ers are largely tied to the team holding No. 2 — those Lakers. In this negotiation poker game, Philadelphia can bluff their way through it, but ultimately they’re going to have to risk the possibility of wasting another first-round pick on a guy who isn’t happy to be with the organization.
HISTORY OF TRADING THE NO. 1 PICK
It hasn’t happened very often, but the No. 1 pick in the draft has been traded — with Andrew Wiggins being the most recent. The Cleveland Cavaliers traded a potential franchise-changing wing in order to receive a known commodity in Kevin Love (they also sent Anthony Bennett, their 2016 first-rounder and a trade exception). The Cavs are in the NBA Finals, and they absolutely messed up that trade.
The more interesting scenario involves Chris Webber. He was drafted No. 1 by the Orlando Magic back in 1993 and was the consensus best player in the draft. Webber didn’t do anything to sway Orlando from drafting him, but they made the decision to ship Webber to Golden State for Anfernee Hardaway and three first-round picks.
Webber would win the Rookie of the Year and would go on to be a terrific power forward — though overshadowed by the Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett‘s of the world — while the Magic would make the NBA Finals two years later, before Hardaway’s knee (and Orlando’s dynasty dream) fell apart.
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You could argue that Orlando won the trade, before the injury gods intervened. The Webber/Hardaway situation is relevant because Orlando traded for a player that really, really wanted to play for them. They traded a guy who appeared to have more upside in Webber for a guy with tons of talent who expressed a desire to be there and a cache of picks. Trading the No. 1 pick wasn’t a disaster then, and the Wiggins/Love debacle aside, it’s possible it wouldn’t be a disaster now.
The big difference for the 76ers — they don’t have a Shaquille O’Neal to rest upon if they took a risk and struck out. They need a transcendent talent to turn their fortunes around, and Simmons could be that guy or could be turned into that guy — if he’d just play along.