Can LeBron James Bring A Title To Cleveland?
LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers bring a lot of baggage with them into the NBA Finals. Can they overcome the history of their city and their star to take home the title?
Thursday night the Cleveland Cavaliers will take on the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, a rematch of last season’s matchup. The Warriors had to overcome a 3-1 deficit and a long, athletic Oklahoma City Thunder team to return to the Finals.
The Cavaliers, by contrast, coasted through the Eastern Conference in only 14 games.
Although the Warriors won last year in six games, the Cavaliers come into this matchup with a full deck of cards. Kevin Love missed all of last year’s Finals, while Kyrie Irving broke his kneecap in Game 1 and never returned.
Both are healthy and playing at a high level on the offensive end this postseason. The Cavaliers also have Channing Frye in the rotation, another option who was acquired at this year’s trade deadline.
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Despite Cleveland’s health and Golden State’s tough battle to get to the Finals, the Cavaliers find themselves heavy underdogs. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) give Cleveland only a 25 percent chance at winning, and FiveThirtyEight’s forecast just a 31 percent chance.
The major discrepancy between the two team’s win totals this year — 73 wins for the Warriors compared to just 57 for the Cavaliers — plays a part in that.
More is on the line for LeBron James and the Cavaliers than simply 2016’s NBA title. This Finals is a chance to bring a title to a city and a fan base that has been without one for a very long time.
Cleveland Heartbreak
The city of Cleveland is home to three major sports teams — the Cavaliers, the NFL’s Cleveland Browns, and the MLB’s Cleveland Indians. Together, those teams have gone 147 seasons without a title.
The Indians have not won a World Series since 1948, and the Browns’ last title came in 1964, two seasons before the first Super Bowl was played.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have never won a title.
In 2015 the New York Times named Cleveland the most cursed sports city in America, a title it has worn with a strange mixture of pride and despair for decades.
Many of the most iconic moments in sports history have come at Cleveland’s expense, from the moments that made John Elway a household name (The Drive! The Fumble!) to the Indians’ fateful collapse against the Florida Marlins in 1997.
One of Michael Jordan’s biggest moments came against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs hit a shot to go up with only :03 left to play in the deciding Game 5, only for His Airness to hit a jump shot at the buzzer to win 101-100 and send the Cavaliers home.
The Curse of Cleveland has extended to recent years, where the Browns were first “deleted” from the NFL through a surprise move to Baltimore, then resurrected into a decade-plus of pain and misery, cycling through quarterbacks and coaches like a shopper tries on clothes.
They have not won a playoff game since 1994. The Indians haven’t been back to the World Series since that 1997 loss.
The Cavaliers have experienced the most success for recent Cleveland sports, making the title game for the third time this century.
But heartbreak has not eluded them either, from losing three straight to the Warriors last season after a 2-1 series lead, or the ill-fated “Decision” when LeBron James left his hometown Cavaliers to win two titles in Miami.
Even with James back in Cleveland, they face long odds to finally bring a title to a city in desperate need of one.
Finals Failures
Another loss would make LeBron James’ Finals record even more lopsided than it already is. Although he won two titles in Miami, he also lost in the Finals twice; failure this season would leave James’ overall mark at 2-5.
It’s hard to differentiate between the positives and negatives of such a mark. On the one hand, LeBron James has made the NBA Finals for six straight years, seven times overall.
That means seven of the last 10 seasons LeBron has been on the best team in the Eastern Conference, potentially the second-best in the world.
On the other, the ultimate goal of basketball (from a competition perspective) is to win titles.
Although there are a number of explanations deeper than “LeBron doesn’t win when it matters” — from poor supporting casts to injuries — the reality is that LeBron has come very close multiple times and been unable to seal the deal.
He is one buzzer-beater from Ray Allen away from losing in the Finals five times as often as he wins.
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There is no question that LeBron James is one of the greatest players in the history of the NBA. But the best players in league history took advantage of their opportunities and won titles.
Michael Jordan led the Chicago Bulls to six titles in six tries. Kobe Bryant won five titles over seven tries, the inverse of LeBron’s record. Despite battling each other for 15 years, both Larry Bird (3-2) and Magic Johnson (5-4) finished with winning records in the Finals.
Ultimately LeBron will be defined by his MVPs, the rings he does have and his versatility and consistency as the best player in the league for years. But his poor Finals record will be a blemish that won’t completely go away.
If LeBron can find a way to win this season, he will help his legacy in a major way.
Pending Fallout
LeBron James didn’t return home to Cleveland to be close to his friends, he returned to bring a title to Cleveland.
Although the Cavaliers have carved their way through a weak Eastern Conference two years in a row, neither time have they looked like the clear favorites when matched up with the best the Western Conference had to offer.
If the Warriors win this series, LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers have to consider whether this core can win titles. For every point that this dynamic offense will score in the Finals, they have the propensity to give it up on the other end.
While they are scoring at a rate that would have ranked first in the NBA this season, their defense would have ranked only 19th.
What sort of change could the Cavaliers make this offseason? There are minor moves always available to a contending team, churning the end of the bench to find contributors who could step in when needed.
When Stephen Curry was out injured against the Houston Rockets, nominal 13th man Ian Clark provided crucial minutes scoring and defending.
But a more drastic shakeup is possible if Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love prove unable to slow down the Splash Brothers and this Golden State juggernaut in the NBA Finals. While LeBron James has the ability to enter free agency, it’s likely he stays in Cleveland for the remainder of his career.
That means it’s the other two stars who could be sent packing.
A popular trade among those writing on the NBA is a Chris Paul-for-Irving swap with the Los Angeles Clippers. L.A. does this trade because they flip a 31-year old point guard for a 24-year old point guard who extends their window.
Cleveland gains a more traditional point guard who makes them better in 2016-17, with elite defense and passing.
Another option is to move Love. This could be for another star, or for high-end role players that can slot in around James. For example, a trade with the Boston Celtics for Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley and a future first-rounder gives Boston a true star.
Cleveland gets a pair of tough defenders who can also space the floor.
It is hard to argue with the fact that Paul, Bradley, Crowder, James and Tristan Thompson is a phenomenal two-way lineup capable to maintaining outside shooting success while completely locking down an opponent.
If defense wins championships, then the Cleveland team facing the Warriors now is set up to fail.
The Cleveland Cavaliers certainly have a chance to win this series. They are rested, healthy, and playing some of the best basketball they have played since James’ return.
A couple of hot shooting nights from the Cavaliers paired with a vintage 35-15-12 takeover games from LeBron could put them in a position to bring a title home to Cleveland.
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But if they lose, it could have shockwaves for this roster and for LeBron’s legacy. Although for the cursed city of Cleveland, it will be just another heartbreak in a sea of them.